Handicapping: Action from Belmont and Delaware

A classy Cross Country Pick Five Saturday, July 10, includes five of the six graded stakes to be run in North America: The Robert G. Dick Memorial (G3T) and Delaware Handicap (G2) from Delaware Park; and the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T), Victory Ride (G3), and Belmont Derby Invitational (G1T) from Belmont Park.

Belmont was in the path of what was left of Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday night and into early Friday. While conditions were expected to improve steadily after that, it's a safe bet the turf will be less than firm for the Oaks and Derby, a pair of 10-furlong tests that lead off New York's Turf Triple series for 3-year-olds.

Interestingly, the morning-line favorites in both races, Santa Barbara  (1-1) in the Kazoo Oaks (G1) and Bolshoi Ballet  (7-5) in the Kazoo Derby (G1), are shipping in for Aidan O'Brien, who is 1 for 69 on these shores since taking the 2018 Belmont Oaks with Athena  at 10-1. Hmm!

Let's go through the sequence in race order.

R.G. Dick Memorial (Del, race 5, 3:15 ET): It's highly doubtful Micheline  (4) will be as low as her 5-2 opening quote, as her form has nosedived since a win in the Hillsborough Stakes (G2T) to start the season. In any event, we're only using the Godolphin homebred defensively.

Blame Debbie  (3) and La Dragontea  (9) are front and center to kick things off. Blame Debbie wired the 1 1/2-mile Searching Stakes off the bench for Graham Motion, improving slightly off her best figures from last year, and is versatile enough to sit off likely pacesetter Candy Flower .

La Dragontea toyed with allowance rivals in her United States debut for turf ace Christophe Clement, then lacked room through the entire stretch at a distance shorter than her best.

Temple City Terror  (5) was beaten by Dalika  twice at the turn of the year going 1 1/16 miles, but turned the tables taking the 12-furlong Keertana Stakes when stretched out by Brendan Walsh most recently.

Luck Money  (7) chased Blame Debbie home in the Searching, and was a close third to Micheline in the Exacta Systems Dueling Grounds Oaks last September.

A — 3, 9

B — 5, 8

C — 4, 7

Belmont Oaks (Bel, race 7, 4:06 ET): Aidan O'Brien may be 1 for 69 since the 2018 Oaks, but his ROI is $2.15 because the winner was Order of Australia  ($148.40) in the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented By PDJF (G1T) last fall.

Santa Barbara (5) is a half sister to Order of Australia as well as Iridessa , who upset the 2019 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1T) at 13-1 for O'Brien's son Joseph. The daughter of Camelot  exits the Pretty Polly Stakes (G1T) against older rivals at the Curragh, as did Athenia (also by Camelot) in 2018.

Santa Barbara can obviously win but her three good races were on good or good-to-firm going, and she was a distant fifth on good-to-soft ground in the Cazoo Oaks (G1) at Epsom, which is cause for pause.

Higher Truth  (3) and Plum Ali  (7) also make the A team. Higher Truth is perfect from two starts over the course and trip for Chad Brown, and the Galileo  filly will be considerably lower than her 12-1 morning line after coming home in :22.75 seconds to beat older allowance foes. Plum Ali ran out of ground when a fast-closing second to Con Lima (1) in the Wonder Again Stakes (G3T), and the First Samurai   filly breezed sharply for this.

Cirona  (2) is an intriguing a French invader who was narrowly beaten in the Prix Saint-Alary (G1T) two back for Christophe Ferland. She will reportedly be transferred to Chad Brown after this race.

A — 3, 5, 7

B — 1, 2, 6

Victory Ride (Bel, race 8, 4:38 ET): Sandwiched in between four long-distance events is a highly competitive 6 1/2-furlong sprint for sophomore fillies featuring the first three finishers from the June 6 Jersey Girl Stakes, Australasia  (7), Bella Sofia  (1), and Miss Brazil  (3).

Australasia trailed the field and her cause looked hopeless turning for home in the Jersey Belle, but she unleashed a final quarter in under 23 seconds to win going away and up her record to 6-for-6 for Brad Cox. She will get ample pace sitting behind Bella Sofia and Ova Charged  (4), who gets a class check after winning her first two starts by better than 16 lengths.

Red Ghost  is 3-for-3 on dirt for Wesley Ward, and will offer value if anything close to her 10-1 early line. She appeared headed for defeat in the Miss Preakness Stakes (G3), but battled back resurgently on the rail to prevail.

Souper Sensational  (5) is another potential price play after being bumped at the start, blocked through upper stretch, and brushed late when fourth in the Eight Belles Stakes Presented By Smithfield (G2). She comes off consecutive bullet works in company with stablemate Palazzi , who goes in the Belmont Derby.

A — 6, 7

B — 1, 3, 4, 5

Belmont Derby (Bel, race 9, 5:12 ET): Bolshoi Ballet reportedly came out of a distant seventh as the favorite in the Derby (G1) at Epsom with a gash on his right hind leg, a potential excuse. It's also worth mentioning Hurricane Lane  was a well-beaten third in that race, but rebounded to win the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (G1), so that was a pretty solid group.

Before his debacle at Epsom, Bolshoi Ballet started the year with back-to-back wins at 10 furlongs in group 3 company, and he handled yielding conditions for a maiden score last fall.

Safe Conduct  (3) and Hard Love  (6) are featured prominently in the play. Safe Conduct has done little wrong on grass, notably a 38-1 shocker over the grade 2-placed Public Sector, and it may pay to draw a line through his last outing in a sloppy renewal of the Pennine Ridge Stakes (G3).

Hard Love was scratched from the Pennine Ridge when it came off the turf, but got a prep for this a week later and beat older allowance company with a new top figure for Jonathan Thomas, who sent out Catholic Boy to win this race in 2018.

Palazzi (1) got no pace to work with when second in the Audubon Stakes and as noted earlier, has since trained swiftly with Souper Sensational.

Du Jour  (5) was transferred from the beleagured Bob Baffert to Bill Mott after winning the American Turf Presented by Derby City Gaming (G2T). That was the third straight triumph for the improving son of Temple City, but this will likely be his initial experience on rain-softened ground.

Tokyo Gold  (7) turns back after winning the Derby Italiano Universita di Roma (G2) at about 11 furlongs, and he has won on soft turf.

A — 2, 3, 6

B — 1, 5, 7

Delaware Handicap (Del, race 9, 5:15 ET): Coming off a rallying runner-up finish behind divisional leader Letruska  in the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1), Bonny South  (5) deservedly shoulders top weight of 123 pounds and gives six opponents three to seven pounds.

Bonny South, a dual graded stakes winner who ran second in the 2020 Alabama (G1), projects to get an honest pace up front with Gibberish  (1) and Miss Marissa  (6) in the mix. The latter prevailed over Bonny South by a neck in the George E. Mitchell Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) last October, and had a useful tightener off the bench when run down by Dream Marie  (3) in the Obeah Stakes, the local prep for this.

If we somehow get to this stage A-A-A-A, we'll pick up longshot Saracosa  (4), who was second in the 2020 Del 'Cap (G2).

A — 5

B — 3, 6

C — 4