Handicapping: Chalky Forecast in July 24 Stakes
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The racing menu looks rather chalky across North America July 24. Del Mar and Saratoga Race Course each have stakes doubleheaders. Pimlico Race Course offers four stakes worth a combined $500,000, topped by the Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup (G3T). The featured attraction at Woodbine is the $175,000 Nassau Stakes (G2T).
The lone grade 1 event is also the first stakes of the day, as the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at the Spa drew just four fillies. The imposing choice at 2-5 on the morning line is Malathaat , the unbeaten winner of the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1). The CCA Oaks will be followed much later on the card by the Caress Stakes (G3T) for filly-and-mare turf sprinters.
Out where the surf meets the turf Del Mar runs a pair of grade 2 turf races, the Eddie Read Stakes (G2T) and San Clemente Stakes (G2T).
Let's quickly go through them all in chronological order, all times ET.
CCA Oaks (Sar, race 5, 3:23): Fillies by Curlin book-end the short field, with Malathaat (1) and Clairiere (4) simply looking head-and-shoulders above longshots Maracuja and Rockpaperscissors .
Malathaat overcame early bumping and a wide trip in the Kentucky Oaks to remain undefeated through five starts for Todd Pletcher, who has won this race seven times already. She is versatile enough to set or track the pace as the situation warrants.
Clairiere was a decent fourth in the Kentucky Oaks and comes off a tough-trip third in the Mother Goose Stakes (G2), in which she stumbled at the break and had to go five wide approaching the stretch. Her dam, Cavorting, was 4-for-4 at Saratoga across three summers, all in grade 1 and grade 2 stakes.
There's not much to do here besides anchoring some rolling pick threes, I'm afraid.
A - 1
B - 4
Nassau (WO, race 6, 3:43): Jolie Olimpica (10) is rated a lukewarm 5-2, which would qualify as a low-odds overlay on a mare who has layover speed figures and is the only graded stakes winner in the field other than Abscond (5). The latter is 0-for-7 since taking the Natalma Stakes (G1T) nearly two years ago.
Jolie Olimpica was ridden with questionable tactics in both prior starts this year at Santa Anita Park, first dropping too far off the pace in the Las Cienegas Stakes (G3T) and then getting caught up in a speed duel against males in the San Simeon Stakes (G3T). Significantly, she is back on Lasix for the first time since running a close second to super classy Rushing Fall in the 2020 Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes (G1T).
Abscond was bumped at the break and raced wide in the Longines Just a Game (G1T) last out, but ran a lifetime top figure two back when fourth, beaten less than a length, in the Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2T).
Our Secret Agent (6) was a close second in the Whimsical Stakes (G3) first time out in seven months, and rates a chance if able to transfer that synthetic form to turf.
A - 10
B - 5, 6
Baltimore/Washington International Turf Cup (Pim, race 8, 4:19): It's tough to get past the three favorites in this field of six.
Field Pass (1) is a graded stakes winner on turf, dirt, and synthetic, and the versatile son of Lemon Drop Kid breaks inside with a short run to the first turn.
Pixelate (4) captured the Del Mar Derby (G2T) last year and has been sharp in two recent starts over the local course.
Ramsey Solution (6) comes off a second in an overnight stakes at Churchill Downs behind the streaking Set Piece , who subsequently took the Wise Dan Stakes (G2T). Ramsey Solution is 3-for-3 with the early lead, so expect him to be handled aggressively away from the gate.
A - 1
B - 4, 6
Caress (Sar, race 10, 6:13): Only six sprinters signed on, and the bulk of the action will be on Caravel (1) and Robin Sparkles (2).
Caravel is 4-for-4 on firm turf, but Saratoga had yet more rain earlier in the week so evaluate her chances accordingly. The good news for her is that it's supposed to be dry in Upstate New York this weekend.
Robin Sparkles is 5-1-0 from six grass starts and will be out winging on the lead.
A - 2
B - 1
Eddie Read (Dmr, race 8, 8:36): The principal players look like Smooth Like Strait (6), United (2), and Say the Word (3), and they are the first three choices on the morning line.
I told you things look chalky!
Smooth Like Strait won graded stakes over the Del Mar course at 2 and 3, and he has come back faster in three starts as a 4-year-old capped by a wire-to-wire win in the Shoemaker Mile Stakes (G1T).
United was a dull fourth in the Charlie Whittingham Stakes (G2T) most recently, but the 6-year-old gelding won this race in 2020 and is 2-2-0 from four starts at Del Mar overall, and may bounce back with a more representative performance.
Say the Word was a rallying second in the Shoemaker, continuing a stretch of good form.
A - 6
B - 2, 3
San Clemente (Dmr, race 10, 9:36): This looks like a slam dunk for Going Global (2), an Irish-bred daughter of Mehmas who is 4-for-4 in the United States, all in stakes company.
The only other graded winner in the lineup is Madone (9), who came up empty behind Going Global as the second choice in the Honeymoon Stakes (G3T). Madone, however, is 2-for-2 at Del Mar and also 2-for-2 when fresh, notably a win in the Senorita Stakes (G3T) in her first appearance this year.
Equilove (6), another Irish import, stretches out after wiring a six-furlong optional/allowance race with a final furlong in under 12 seconds. That was her second tally from three U.S. starts, and she obviously has a big shot to control the early tempo.
Closing Remarks (12) drew horribly but was a close second to Going Global in both the China Doll Stakes and Providencia Stakes (G3T) earlier this season, and she has been freshened since clipping heels at the break and rallying to wind up third in the Senorita. She reunites with Umberto Rispoli, who will have to work out a trip from the far outside.
A - 2
B - 6, 9, 12