Handicapping: Eyes on Saratoga, the August Place to Be

There's a grade 2 stakes doubleheader of the Yellow Ribbon Stakes (G2) and Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar, and the West Virginia Derby (G3) caps a seven-stakes program at Mountaineer Casino Racetrack & Resort Aug. 7.

However, Saratoga Race Course is The August Place To Be, especially on Whitney Day. The $1 million Whitney Stakes (G1) bestows the winner a fees-paid berth in the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar Nov. 6 and climaxes an all-stakes pick five with a mandatory payout. The sequence begins with a 12-horse renewal of the Fasig-Tipton Lure Stakes and rambles on through the Glens Falls Stakes (G2T), the Longines Test Stakes (G1), and $1 million Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T), the second leg of the Turf Triple for 3-year-olds on the circuit.

Lure (Sar, race 6, 3:24 ET): The Chad Brown-trained triumvirate of Delaware  (2), Value Proposition  (3) and Flavius (5) are the horses with the fastest figures, and not surprisingly they are the top three choices on the morning line.

We're using them all but it's not like they're world-beaters: Delaware is 1-for-9 in the United States; Value Proposition is 0-for-5 in stakes company; and Flavius has burned truckloads of cash going 1-for-8 in the U.S.

Tell Your Daddy  (7) and South Bend  (9) have some upset potential. 

Tell Your Daddy was claimed by Tom Morley last winter and returned off a break to run Value Proposition and Flavius to photo finishes, winding up beaten less than a length for all the money in the Elusive Quality Stakes at 59-1 and the Seek Again Stakes at 24-1.

South Bend showed ability on turf early in his 3-year-old season. After switching to dirt in the Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), he was at the end of a long campaign finishing off the board in the Belmont Derby Invitational Stakes (G1T) back on grass. He returned at 4 with a promising win at Keeneland when paired with Joel Rosario, and gets a switch back to that rider after a tough-trip fifth in the Blame Stakes and a fourth in the Stephen Foster Stakes (G2).

A — 2, 3, 5

B — 7, 9

Glens Falls (Sar, race 7, 3:58 ET): Dalika  (6) withstood prolonged pace pressure to win the Robert G. Dick Memorial Stakes (G3T) over a couple of these, but it's doubtful she can hold off War Like Goddess  (3) or My Sister Nat  (5) in this longer and tougher matchup.

Both of those mares are exceptionally strong finishers. War Like Goddess has been freshened since early spring when she won the Orchid Stakes (G3T) with a come-home three furlongs in :34.06 and the Bewitch with a last quarter in :22.21. My Sister Nat was caught behind a very slow pace in the 2020 Glens Falls but was up for second with a final three-eighths in :34.34, followed by another placing in the Flower Bowl Stakes (G1T) with a :22.40-second last quarter. She comes off a good third in the New York Stakes (G2T), from which runner-up Thundering Nights  came out to win the Alwasmiyah Pretty Polly Stakes (G1) in Ireland.

A — 3, 5

B — 6

Test (Sar, race 8, 4:34 ET): Seven of the eight sophomore fillies in this race have recorded comparable Beyer Speed Figure peaks in the 93-96 range, and the lone exception, Illumination  (1), isn't far behind.

Illumination looks to be outgunned as she ships cross-country for the beleaguered Bob Baffert, but she is an alert breaker from the rail who will make things difficult up front for Always Carina  (5) and Bella Sofia  (8).

The highly pressured early pace scenario appears to favor Souper Sensational  (2), Zaajel  (3), Obligatory  (4), and Search Results  (7).

Despite a habit of not regularly changing leads in the stretch, Search Results has won four of five starts, the lone defeat by a neck in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1). She is nicely drawn toward the outside for a hassle-free beginning behind the pacesetters.

Obligatory came rolling to win the Eight Belles Presented by Smithfield (G2) from dead last, then almost caught Search Results in the Acorn Stakes (G1) despite slow early fractions.

Zaajel improved sharply to wear down Always Carina in the Mother Goose (G2) at 18-1, upping her record in one-turn races to 3-for-3. She'll be a square price again.

A — 3, 7

B — 2, 4, 5

Saratoga Derby (Sar, race 9, 5:10 ET): This race has the potential to trip up a lot of pick five plays, as there isn't much pace on and there are several invaders from across the pond to deal with.

Foremost among the Europeans is Bolshoi Ballet  (6), a son of the recently deceased Galileo who crossed the Atlantic to win the 1 1/4-mile Belmont Derby four weeks ago for Aidan O'Brien. It's fair to wonder, though, whether the slightly shorter distance on a tighter-turned layout works against the morning-line favorite.

Du Jour (2) was right there in midstretch before fading to fourth in the Belmont Derby, which was his first start in 10 weeks after being transferred from Baffert to Bill Mott and relocated to the East Coast. It was also Du Jour's initial try on turf rated something other than firm and he had the second widest trip in the race, according to Trakus. The son of Temple City   is entitled to rebound, and something approximating his win in the American Turf Presented by Derby City Gaming (G2T) two back makes him a viable threat.

Cellist  (8), a solid third in the Belmont Derby, will try to steal this on the lead for Calumet Farm, which has won a handful of graded stakes with longshots in New York over the past year, most recently lighting up the toteboard with Lexitonian  (34-1) in the Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap (G1) July 31.

Any among the trio of Soldier Rising  (1), Cadillac  (4), and State of Rest  (9) could make an impact based on their best races overseas.

Keep tabs on King Fury  (11), who missed a scheduled start in the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) July 31 due to a quarantine placed on his barn. The Kenny McPeek-trained winner of the Stonestreet Lexington Stakes (G3) is using this as a Travers prep.

A — 2, 6, 8

B — 1, 4, 9

Whitney (Sar, race 10, 5:48 ET): The "Fab Five" in the Whitney are all millionaires and have combined for 25 stakes wins. This is such a salty group that Silver State  (2), who rides a six-race win streak capped by the Hill 'N' Dale Metropolitan Handicap (G1), will be no better than third choice to Knicks Go  (4) and Maxfield  (5).

Knicks Go is 5-for-5 in two-turn races since being transferred to Brad Cox, including scores in the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1) and Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes (G1). The son of Paynter   looms the one to catch and beat.

Maxfield is 7-for-8, the lone blemish a third in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1). He put in a big run on the far turn and toyed with his rivals through the stretch of the Stephen Foster most recently.

By My Standards  (1), second in last year's Whitney, receives a favorable six-pound weight shift from Silver State after overcoming early trouble to get second in the Met Mile. He's worth including in backup mode at double-digit odds.

Swiss Skydiver  (3), last year's champion 3-year-old filly for McPeek, missed the Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) due to a fever, then missed the Shuvee due to quarantine when a horse in the same barn tested positive for equine herpesvirus. She beat eventual Horse of the Year Authentic   in the 2020 Preakness (G1) when in top form, but this is a tall order first time out since coming up empty behind division leader Letruska in the Apple Blossom (G1) in April.

A — 4, 5

B— 1