Breeders’ Cup Review, Part 2

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
In a previous betting tip, the value of backing a European in the Breeders’ Cup Marathon was pointed out.
In Part 2 of this Breeders’ Cup exercise in redboarding, this year’s world championships illustrated another handicapping nugget that should be stored away until next year’s series returns to Santa Anita: Go with the Europeans in the juvenile turf races.
Since the addition of the Juvenile Turf in 2007 and Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2008 to the Breeders’ Cup roster, the 13 editions of the two races have been won on eight occasions by Europeans. Adding to the international flavor, there was also one winner who had previously raced in Canada (More Than Real in the 2010 BCJFT), though she was based in the U.S. of A.
In particular, the Juvenile Turf has been a haven for the Europeans. They’ve won 6 of the 7 runnings and in that one setback, a foreign invader, Achill Island, was a troubled second.
This year, they ran 1-2 with Outstrip and Giovanni Boldini and that marked the second time in four tries there was an all-Europe exacta in California, illustrating how the Europeans have found the right answers for the hard, firm turf at Santa Anita.
EUROPEANS RAN 1-2 IN THE 2013 EDITION OF THE JUVENILE TURF

Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
Interestingly, only once in the seven editions of the BCJT has a favorite taken the race, so don’t focus all of your attention on those shippers who are billed as runners who “shan’t lose.”
On the fillies’ side, it took a while for them to get rolling, but Europe has produced the last two winners of the BCJFT and backing a hat trick seems a wise move, even if the race is more than 11 months away.
As with the BCJT, both European conquerors in the BCJFT have not been favored. Flotilla was sent off at 11-1 and was the third choice among the Europeans on the toteboard, while Chriselliam was priced at 6-1 this year and was also third in odds among the overseas contingent.
THE LESSON: Backing a European in a juvenile turf race at the Breeders’ Cup might seem like an obvious tactic, but the trick is to avoid focusing too much attention on the favorite. More times than not it is one of the lesser fancied Europeans who lands in the winners’ circle.