Handicapping: Arlington Swan Song in X-Country Pick 5

The Arlington Million will forever hold a special place in my heart, as I was late for my first date with the future Mrs. At Large waiting on the photo that showed John Henry had won the inaugural running by a nose over The Bart.

With a reduced purse of $600,000 for what will likely be its last hurrah, the 38th Million (G1T) is now the Mr. D. and climaxes the traditional grade 1 triumvirate along with the Beverly D. (G1T) and the Bruce D. (G1T), formerly the Secretariat Stakes.

Those three stakes from Arlington International Racecourse Saturday, Aug. 14, are packaged in a 50-cent Cross Country Pick Five with the day's two other graded races in North America, the Fourstardave Handicap (G1T) and Saratoga Special Presented By Miller Lite (G2) from Saratoga Race Course.

Let's look at the sequence in race order, all times Eastern.

Saratoga Special (Sar, race 9, 5:39): Casting a wide net and using eight of the dozen 2-year-olds in this 6 1/2-furlong race.

Gunite  (2) and Doctor Jeff  (8) are the A team.

Gunite needed three tries to garner his maiden win at Churchill Downs and did so with a sparkling six furlongs June 26, beating 11 rivals in 1:10.10, a time faster by more than a second than what Double Thunder  required in the Bashford Manor Stakes (G3) later that day. Gunite is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred by freshman sire Gun Runner   and trained by Steve Asmussen, the same connections who won the Adirondack Stakes (G2) earlier at the meet with Wicked Halo , a Gun Runner filly.

Doctor Jeff earned the top figure winning his debut at Belmont Park, but only faced four rivals in an off-the-turf race and will likely encounter far more pace pressure here.

The B team is comprised of Nakatomi  (1) and Stolen Base  (6).

Nakatomi is under the gun from the rail while making his first start since tiring in the Norfolk Stakes (G2T) at Royal Ascot. Prior to that, the Wesley Ward-trained gelding was unveiled in the slop at Keeneland and wore down stablemate Happy Soul , who has since won twice by a combined 23 lengths including the Astoria Stakes.

Stolen Base showed good tactical speed to win at first asking for meet-leading trainer Mike Maker.

Backing up the backups are Kitodan  (4), Midnight Worker  (5), Double Thunder (7), and High Oak  (11). A win by any of them would require us going AAAA in the ensuing legs.

A - 2, 8

B - 1, 6

C - 4, 5, 7, 11

Beverly D. (AP, race 7, 5:49): Mean Mary  (2) is the controlling speed and the five-time graded stakes winner has won both of her starts this year, wiring the Gallorette Stakes (G3T) and New York Stakes (G2T). She has been flattered by the subsequent exploits of those behind her: Vigiliantes Way and Great Island , second and third in the Gallorette, have since won grade 3 stakes at Monmouth Park. Thundering Nights , second in the New York, returned to capture the Al Wasmiyah Stud Pretty Polly Stakes (G1) at the Curragh.

Lemista  (6) ships in for Chad Brown, who has made Arlington his personal playground the last five years with a record of 11 for 26 (42%), all in stakes, including the last three renewals of the Million and four scores in the Beverly D. Although Lemista came up empty in the recent Diane Stakes (G1T), the Irish-bred daughter of Raven's Pass  gets first-time Lasix and will be dangerous if she runs back to her placing in the Beaugay Stakes (G3T) first time in the U.S.

The lone fallback option is Santa Barbara  (4), an Aidan O'Brien-trained 3-year-old taking on older mares after getting up late in the Belmont Oaks Invitational (G1T) over Con Lima , who then wired the Aug. 8 Saratoga Oaks Invitational Stakes (G3T).

A - 2, 6

B - 4

Fourstardave 'Cap (Sar, race 10, 6:13): Raging Bull  (1) and Casa Creed  (4) will be our main focus in this Breeders' Cup Challenge Series event for the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1T) at Del Mar Nov. 6.

Three mares are in the lineup, notably Got Stormy  (6), who won the 2019 Fourstardave and set a course record of 1:32 flat for the mile; and Blowout  (8), who, like Raging Bull, is owned by Peter Brant and trained by Chad Brown. If she starts, Blowout has sufficient speed to clear early from the outside.

Raging Bull was 18 lengths back after a half-mile in the 2019 edition and got up for second, and could only manage fifth last year after lagging far back early as well. Since paired with Irad Ortiz Jr. for two starts this year, however, Raging Bull has shown better positional skills, winning the Maker's Mark Mile (G1T), followed by a close second in the Poker Stakes (G3T) after being caught in traffic turning for home and rallying gamely through tight quarters on the rail.

Casa Creed scratched from last week's 5 1/2-furlong Troy Stakes (G3T) to await this, and enters in peak form for Bill Mott after wins in the Elusive Quality Stakes and Jackpocket Jaipur (G1T) at Belmont.

Got Stormy's recent form is only fair-to-middling, but such was the case last year before she rebounded with a second in this race at 10-1. She's on the B team with Blowout and Set Piece  (5).

Set Piece comes off three wins in a row at Churchill including the Wise Dan Stakes (G2T) with a stirring rail rally after weaving through traffic in upper stretch. He is 4 for 5 under the fabled Twin Spires, but winless from five starts on other turf courses, and is trying top-notch competition for the first time as a somewhat vulnerable-looking second choice.

A - 1, 4

B - 5, 6, 8

Bruce D. (AP, race 8, 6:28): This is the softest of grade 1 spots. None of of the nine sophomores in here have run in a graded grass stake of any kind, so it's understandable Tango Tango Tango  (2) is the morning-line choice off a win in the listed American Derby on the local course with blinkers on.

Tango Tango Tango is a key for us along with Point Me By  (6), who was a debut winner at Churchill in June, followed by a rallying fourth against older allowance runners at Saratoga.

In backup mode are Therideofalifetime  (1), a Candy Ride   colt who ran second in last year's Saratoga Special and now tries turf (and two turns) for the first time; and Ginsburned  (4), a second-out maiden graduate at Ellis Park in late July.

A - 2, 6

B - 1, 4

Mr. D. (AP, race 9, 7:13): I would be fine getting to the cash-out event alive to only Domestic Spending  (3), who will be heavily favored to notch his fifth straight stakes win and give Chad Brown a fourth consecutive win in this race.

Domestic Spending has won six of seven starts and has gotten faster with each passing race, culminating in a tour de force performance to take the Resorts World Casino Manhattan Stakes (G1T).

If things go swimmingly earlier in the sequence we'll also pick up 12-1 longshot Glynn County  (2) and second choice Armory  (9).

Glynn County, a late-developing son of Kitten's Joy  , comes off a sneaky-good fifth in the United Nations Stakes (G1T) in which he ran the last three-eighths of a mile in under 35 seconds. His trainer, Mike Maker, has been on a major roll this summer.

Armory is an Irish-bred from the same connections that swept the Belmont Derby (G1T) and Belmont Oaks (G1T) at Belmont last month. The Aidan O'Brien-trained son of recently deceased Galileo  is a four-time group stakes winner overseas and reunites with Ryan Moore, who was aboard for a win in the Melodi Media Huxley Stakes (G2T) to get his 4-year-old campaign underway three races back.

A - 3

B - 2, 9