Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Firing Line was in complete control in a 14 1/4-length runaway victory in the Sunland Derby on March 22. (Coady Photography)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they were two weeks ago. 
Heating Up

1. Firing Line 

Coady Photography

After getting beat by a head twice by top Kentucky Derby contender Dortmund in California, Firing Line was pointed to the $800,000 Sunland Derby and overwhelmed the opposition in a 14 ¼-length runaway. There were a number of reasons to really like the Sunland Derby victory by Firing Line. First, he was close to a swift pace and still came home relatively fast with a final furlong in :12.69. For me, that is the most important angle in seeking a Derby selection. A horse who can race close to an opening half-mile in :45.39 and not stagger home going 1 1/8 miles or 1 ¼ miles is for real. It’s what made I’ll Have Another appealing in 2012. Second, after two straight slug-it-out battles against Dortmund, Firing Line finished unchallenged under an easy hand ride from Gary Stevens. He’s got something left and he’s got six weeks to recover. The time off between the final prep race and the derby used to be a big concern, but no worries for Firing Line. Those tough battles with Dortmund in December and February should give him sufficient foundation. If you like Dortmund, which I really do, you have to like Firing Line, too, especially given how much better odds you will get on the first Saturday in May.

2. Dubai Sky 

Coady Photography

Dubai Sky makes the cut not because he’s one of my new sleepers for the Kentucky Derby, but because he was not even remotely on my radar a week ago and now he has enough points to guarantee his spot in the 20-horse field. He’s now won four straight races, including the $550,000 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes on March 21 in his first start on the main track. The Candy Ride colt won the Spiral by 2 ¼ lengths against a pair of horses I thought highly of in Royal Son and Metaboss. So why doesn’t Dubai Sky crack my top ten? Well, he has yet to post a triple-digit Equibase Speed Figure and he’s never started on a dirt main track, which he will have to navigate in the Kentucky Derby. Unlike others, I do think there is some validity to the hypothesis that the Churchill Downs main track, which is usually hard and fast on Derby day, plays well for turf runners. But that’s a lot of improvement to make on a surface he has yet to try. I like a little more certainty in my Derby pick. A positive pedigree note: Dubai Sky is a full-brother (same sire [father], same dam [mother]) to Grade 1 winner Twirling Candy, who won the Grade 2 Californian Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on a synthetic surface and the Grade 2 Strub Stakes on dirt.

3. American Pharoah

Coady Photography

American Pharoah’s Rebel Stakes win was a glorified workout and he didn’t move up from No. 2 on my rankings, so why is he here? Because the champ is back! His workouts leading up to the Rebel were very positive, so I wasn’t incredibly concerned, but the reality is we were talking about 5 ½ months on the sidelines. It’s tough to predict how horses come back from extended layoffs, plus the margin for error was so slim with seven weeks before the Kentucky Derby. American Pharoah looked just like the beast we saw dominating the opposition in his final two races as a juvenile. This is a serious racehorse — it’s hard to argue he is not the most talented horse of his generation so far — who looks to be back in great shape. He loped around the Oaklawn main track in the Rebel, but Pharoah has a high cruising speed and the ability top put up consistently high speed figures. The 108 Equibase Speed Figure he earned for the Rebel was a new career high, but only a one-point jump from his previous best so it shouldn’t be too taxing. It would be nice to see American Pharoah rate behind one or two horses in his final Kentucky Derby prep, but at this point I doubt Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert cares to mess with success. Besides, the new Kentucky Derby point system has eliminated almost all of the sprinter speed — horses who banked graded stakes earnings racing only in sprints under the old system — so the pace scenario now sets up much better for speed horses.

Cooling Off

1. Texas Red  

Eclipse Sportswire

It’s always disappointing to see a 3-year-old you think had a real shot to win the Kentucky Derby drop off the trail, but the realty is everything has to be just about perfect to win on the first Saturday in May. Minor setbacks that might cost an older horse or a 2-year-old a couple of weeks of training and lead to an adjustment in the schedule instead cost a 3-year-old his Derby chances. Since the last edition of “Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down on the Derby Trail” on March 11, Texas Red was removed from consideration for the Kentucky Derby because of a foot abscess. Texas Red, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, will be back to run in big races and he’s a legitimate talent. We haven’t seen the last of him but unfortunately we will not see him in the Kentucky Derby.

2. Metaboss 

Vassar Photography

I thought the Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Spiral Stakes was Metaboss’s for the taking after he won the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby on the synthetic Tapeta Footings surface at Golden Gate Fields. Sent off as the 9-to-5 favorite in the Spiral, Metaboss never fired and finished a dull sixth. Could he rebound in a big way? Sure, but it’s really hard to bounce back after firing a blank in your key Kentucky Derby prep race. Fact is, it very rarely happens. Prior to the Spiral, Metaboss had shown plenty of talent and class. Chances are he’s got plenty of good races left in him. But with only 10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, the odds are stacked against him reaching the starting gate for the Derby in five weeks.

3. Royal Son 

Coady Photography

If Metaboss didn’t win the Spiral Stakes, surely Royal Son was going to, right? Boy, did I read that race poorly. When Royal Son posted a new career-top Equibase Speed Figure of 110 in the John Battaglia Memorial Stakes at Turfway Park, host of the Spiral, he looked like a 3-year-old who absolutely relished the synthetic Polytrack surface. If I had to pick one horse to finish in the top three in the Spiral it would have undoubtedly been Royal Son. With three-eighths of a mile to go, he was second and looked in ideal position. But Royal Son faded to fifth as the 2.90-to-1 second betting choice with no obvious excuse. As mentioned above, it’s almost impossible to overcome a dud in your key Kentucky Derby prep … especially in Royal Son’s case with no Derby points. 

CURRY'S DERBY TOP 10

1. Dortmund  2. American Pharoah 3. Firing Line 4. Far From Over  5. Carpe Diem 6. Far Right 7. International Star   8. Upstart 9. Bolo  10. War Story 
Four on the bubble: Materiality, Prospect Park, Itsaknockout, El Kabeir 

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.