Betting the Louisiana Derby on a Budget
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War Story looks to turn the tables on rival International Star in Saturday's Louisiana Derby. (Photo by Lou Hodges Jr./Hodges Photography)
The Kentucky Derby trail heats up as it rolls down Bourbon Street and to Fair Grounds Race Course for the Louisiana Derby. International Star has swept the two preps for this race in impressive fashion, but eight other 3-year olds have their sights set on securing a spot in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.
After surveying the field, I see War Story clearing the wire first. The lightly-raced gelding has dueled with International Star in the Louisiana Derby preps, finishing on the bottom of the exacta for each race. Last time out in the Risen Star Stakes, War Story had to expend quite a bit of energy to make up lost ground on the pack after breaking slow. A clean, swift break in this race will mean more gas left in the tank for the 1 1/8 mile affair. War Story has posted a steady set of works, since his effort in the Risen Star Stakes, so he’ll take the track in good form. He’s my pick to score here.
Stanford, a Todd Pletcher-trained colt, was a bit wayward in his last effort at Gulfstream Park. He was disqualified to last of six for some interference early in the race. His flashy pedigree and the fact that he’s under the tutelage of Pletcher indicate that the best may be yet to come. Could this be Stanford’s moment to shine? My mind tells me close, but not quite.
Keen Ice is another surrounded by a great deal of hype. He’s competed against the best of the best in each of his past four races. In addition to Mr. Z, he’s probably the most battle-tested in high level races in this field. Keene Ice’s failure to capture a win in a graded stakes could be an indication that he’s not quite up to snuff to win against class company, or it could be the case that he just hasn’t hit his peak. I prefer to look on the upside when it comes to 3-year-olds. He’s a contender here, but not a winner. I think the best is yet to come for the colt by Curlin.
I’m putting War Story on top in my exotics. A morning line of 4-1 is not a massive price, but it will be good enough to bring home some bacon. Below are two $20 strategies to take advantage of my confidence in him, with A being more risky and B being as straight forward as it gets.
Strategy A:
$6 Win: War Story
$.50 Trifecta ($14 Wager): War Story with All with International Star, Keen Ice, Stanford
Strategy B:
$ 20 Win: War Story
$750,000, Grade 2 Louisiana DerbySaturday, Fair Grounds, Race 11 at 6:24 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
M-L
1
Stanford
Florent Geroux
Todd Pletcher
Stonestreet,M.Magnier,M.Tabor,D.Smith
5-1
2
Mr. Z
Kent Desormeaux
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
4-1
3
Defondo
Brian Hernandez, Jr.
Dallas Stewart
West Point Thoroughbreds
12-1
4
Fusaichi Flame
Franciso Torres
Scott Gelner
Norman Stables
20-1
5
A Day in Paradise
Kerwin Clark
J. Larry Jones
Tommy G. Ligon
12-1
6
War Story
Joe Talamo
Tom Amoss
Loooch RacingStable, Glenn Ellis, Chris Dunn
4-1
7
Keen Ice
James Graham
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
5-1
8
St. Joe Bay
Robby Albarado
Peter Miller
Altamira Rac. Stb. & David Al. Bernsen
10-1
9
International Star
Miguel Mena
Mike Maker
Ken and Sarah Ramsey
3-1