DerbyJackpot’s Best Bets of the Weekend for March 28 - 29
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Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
America’s Best Racing and DerbyJackpot team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, one of our crack handicappers - Jose Contreras, Dan Tordjman, Victoria Garofalo or Cory Moelis – will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet.
The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, our handicappers will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet.
Our handicappers also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity to bet a trifecta or superfecta.
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Saturday, March 28
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Fair Grounds, Race 11, Louisiana Derby, 6:24 p.m. ET
#8 St. Joe Bay: Having tired to a fourth-place finish going 1 1/16 miles in his most recent race, this one will get overlooked. However, he was pressed all the way around in that one and still showed some fight late. With the blinkers coming off Mr. Z, I have a feeling they might try to take that one a little off the pace. St. Joe Bay looks like he could be a loose pacesetter here and grab a major slice at a huge price.
#9 International Star: You have to use the Lecomte and Risen Star Stakes winner, who'll be going for the sweep of the three Louisiana-based prep races for the Kentucky Derby. He's shown an incredible ability to overcome difficult trips and is not afraid to go through a hole. He's braver than a lot of horses his age, and he's got the talent to go a long way. Distance shouldn't be an issue.
#7 Keen Ice: If he doesn't make a big impact here, Keen Ice is out of excuses. He's been a wise-guy Kentucky Derby contender for months, with the logic being the longer Keen Ice goes, the better he'll be. Well, he gets 1 1/8 miles here, after rallying into a third-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Risen Star. Hard to imagine him getting a better pace setup than he did in that one, but this son of Curlin still figures to hit the board with a clean trip.
Best Bet (Win Bet/Monkey Bet)
Gulfstream Park, Race 14, Florida Derby, 6:48 p.m. ET
#7 Materiality: Here's to hoping that bettors overlook this rising star in the featured race on Saturday's Gulfstream card, the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Much of the hype coming into the race surrounds the rematch of disqualified Fountain of Youth winner Upstart and the eventual winner through disqualification, Itsaknockout. While there's no doubting the talent of those two, neither appeared to be accelerating late, so much as they were pulling away from tired horses. On the other hand, Materiality looked like he had plenty in the tank when romping in a stakes race at 1 1/8 miles on this track in his most recent start. Additionally, he was bothered in the race when pacesetter Stanford was spooked and took a weird step, veering out into Materiality slightly. This lightly raced son of Afleet Alex looks like he can run all day. Let's hope we get him at odds that are somewhere near the 7-2 he's listed at on the morning line.
Sunday, March 29
Best Bet (Win Bet/Monkey Bet)
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 2, 1:10 p.m. ET
#1 Fryers Well: This horse cuts back in distance on the switch from turf to dirt. Three races ago, he won with ease on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs. He should be able to sit a nice trip behind dueling pacesetters and go by them late.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Tampa Bay Downs, Race 5, 2:40 p.m. ET
#1 Ransom Paid: This horse is 0 for 13 lifetime and looks to break the maiden here while dropping in for the half the tag he ran for last time. You can toss that flop on the turf in his most recent start, especially in light of how well he ran two races back on the dirt. Trainer Jamie Ness scores 25% on the switch from turf to dirt and leading local jockey Antonio Gallardo wins at a 35% clip when riding for Ness.
#2 Let It Be Famous: This one looks like the main speed and could steal it if they don't press him early. He just missed at this level last out. If he can catch a breather, he might very well break through.
#5 C Dr Gold: Mystery horse hasn't been seen since last November at Gulfstream Park West. While he has failed to finish within 17 lengths of the winner in any of his first four races, he's still relatively lightly raced and isn't facing much here. Additionally, the blinkers come off as he races for the first time as a gelding.