Betting the Florida Derby on $20 Budget
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Materiality enters the Florida Derby off a dominant win in the 1 1/8-mile Islamorada Handicap on March 6 at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Kenny Martin/Gulfstream Park)
While I’ve been hearing a lot of talk about how the Grade 1, $1-million Besilu Stables Florida Derby on Saturday at Gulfstream Park is just a rematch between Itsaknockout (#4) and Upstart (#9), I disagree. I see a lot of potential with some better value horses.
I can’t wait to see who earns the 100-40-20-10 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard – Derby season is truly upon us!
#1 Ami's Flatter: Much to like here: Big jockey change in picking up Eclipse Award-winning rider Javier Castellano, second-time blinkers, second-time Lasix, and ran a bang-up second-place finish in his most recent start in the Tampa Bay Derby to top Kentucky Derby contender Carpe Diem. Eligible to improve and a must use in exactas in trifectas.
#4 Itsaknockout: Despite winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes in a questionable disqualification, I’m not sold on this horse just yet. His stablemate Materiality shows more value. I’ll use Itsaknockout in trifectas.
#7 Materiality: Undefeated Materiality (2-for-2) looks to move forward to Grade 1 company for the elite combination of seven-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Todd Pletcher and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez. A $400,000 purchase as a 2-year-old by 2005 Preakness and Belmont Stakes-winning sire Afleet Alex, Materiality has a chance to defeat stablemate Itsaknockout and projected race-time favorite Upstart. With a repeat and/or minimal improvement off his last race (a top Beyer Speed Figure performance), the value bet here at 7-2 odds is a must!
#9 Upstart: The logical must-use horse. He’s yet to run a bad race, coast to coast, in his six starts, and he has some pretty spectacular workouts lately. It really is his race to lose.
UPSTART AFTER WINNING THE HOLY BULL STAKES IN JANUARY
Photo by Lauren King/Gulfstream Park
Vick’s Picks: (#7 Materiality, #9 Upstart, #1 Ami’s Flatter, #4 Itsaknockout)
Strategy A – $20 win on #7 Materiality
Strategy B – $10 exacta box: #7 Materiality with #9 Upstart
Strategy C – Four $5 straight trifectas:
$5 trifecta: #7 Materiality with #9 Upstart with #1 Ami’s Flatter
$5 trifecta: #7 Materiality with #1 Ami’s Flatter with #9 Upstart
$5 trifecta: #9 Upstart with #7 Materiality with #1 Ami’s Flatter
$5 trifecta: #9 Upstart with #4 Itsaknockout with #7 Materiality
Per usual, may the odds be literally in your favor!
$1-million, Grade 1 Besilu Stables Florida DerbySaturday, Gulfstream Park, Race 14, 6:48 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Morning Line
1
Ami's Flatter
Javier Castellano
Josie Carroll
Ivan Dalos
8-1
2
Jack Tripp
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Dale Romans
Robert J. Baron
20-1
3
Indianaughty
Corey J. Lanerie
Dale Romans
Team Valor International
20-1
4
Itsaknockout
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher
Starlight Racing
2-1
5
Quimet
Edgard J. Zayas
Nick Zito
Lucky Shamrock Stable
20-1
6
My Point Exactly
Juan C. Leyva
Bill Kaplan
Pinnacle Racing Stables, R. Norman, R. Justice and J. Hendricks
30-1
7
Materiality
John R. Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
Alto Racing
7-2
8
Dekabrist
Jesus M. Rios
Gennadi Dorochenko
Raut LLC
30-1
9
Upstart
Jose L. Ortiz
Rick Violette
Ralph M. Evans
8-5