Longshot Potential in Both Parx Stakes for 3-Year-Olds

Other than the Unibet Rockfel Stakes (G2T) and Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (G2T) at Newmarket, this is a quiet weekend in terms of Breeders' Cup Challenge races. However, a number of important horses are using stakes Saturday, Sept. 25, at Belmont Park and Parx Racing as steppingstones to the World Championships at Del Mar.

The Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and Cotillion (G1) cap an eight-stakes Parx program, right after the Gallant Bob (G2) featuring the dynamic sophomore sprinter Jackie's Warrior .

Things look chalky at Belmont. The freakish Life Is Good , who suffered his first defeat when edged by Jackie's Warrior in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1),  is 1-9 against four older foes in the Kelso Handicap (G2), which serves as a likely springboard to the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1). Later on the card, Chad Brown sends out 3-5 favorite Pocket Square  and 9-5 second choice Miss Teheran  against three other turf-meant fillies and mares in the Athenia Stakes (G3T).

There's a pick three available at Churchill Downs on a trio of $275,000 stakes, beginning with the Dogwood (G3), where Carribean Caper  is tabbed at even money to remain unbeaten.

The Pennsylvania Derby and Cotillion are each worth $1 million, and the next-richest stakes Saturday are the $400,000 My Dear Girl and $400,000 In Reality divisions of the FTBOA Florida Sire Stakes Series at Gulfstream Park, where Florida Sire Stakes' registered 2-year-olds stretch out to 1 1/16 miles.

We'll focus on those four races in chronological order:

My Dear Girl (GP, race 9, 4:30 ET): Shipped to South Florida off a third in her debut at Saratoga Race Course behind Spinaway Stakes (G1) winner Echo Zulu , Outfoxed  (1) was pounded to 7-5 favoritism in the seven-furlong Susan's Girl division of the FSS and won off by better than 13 lengths. 

Outfoxed will be an even lower price this time, and drawing the rail with a short run to the first turn obviously helps her cause provided she gets away cleanly—something that's not a given in view of trouble comments at the gate in her first two starts.

The intriguing alternative is Chacalosa  (7), another new face who was purchased privately and transferred to high-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli after rallying to win the Arlington-Washington Lassie going away. Nine days prior to that, Chacalosa ran second in an off-the-turf maiden route, so having some two-turn experience is a plus for this daughter of regally bred Jess's Dream  , who was the product of a mating between Horses of the Year Curlin   and Rachel Alexandra  and won his only career start—going 1 1/8 miles at the Spa.

In addition, Chacalosa's half sibling Textpectation  is a multiple winner from a mile to 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream.

Can we get the 4-1 early quote?

A - 7

B - 1

Cotillion (Prx, race 11, 5:02 ET): Maracuja  (4), Army Wife , (5) and Clairiere  (6) should benefit from the cutback in distance after running in the Alabama (G1) at 1 1/4 miles. They are the most accomplished entrants, but no one should confuse any of them with recent Cotillion winners such as Untapable , Songbird , Midnight Bisou  and Havre de Grace , champions all.

Any among Allworthy  (2), Always Carina  (8), and/or Leader of the Band  (9) rate consideration at worthwhile odds, given the circumstances.

Allworthy will be a huge price coming off a fourth in the Monmouth Oaks (G3) behind Leader of the Band and a third in the Charles Town Oaks (G3). She gets a major rider upgrade to Florent Geroux after being allowed to lag too far off the pace in both of those races, and it's worth mentioning she was against a powerful rail bias at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races.

Always Carina caught a big break with the reported scratch of Private Mission , which puts her in the potential position of lone front-runner. She was inexplicably rated off a moderate pace in the Longines Test (G1) last out, but will be handled more aggressively under new rider John Velazquez.

Leader of the Band loves this track (2-3-1 from six starts), and the only locally based filly in the field has improved steadily throughout the season. 

A - 5, 6

B - 2, 4, 8, 9

In Reality (GP, race 11, 5:38 ET): This race has produced some pretty fair horses, notably 2019 winner Chance It , who will be second choice to Life Is Good in the Kelso; and 2018 winner Well Defined , who will vie for favoritism with Noble Drama  in the $125,000 Wildcat Heir Stakes earlier on this card.

The bulk of the wagering action will go to Octane  (7) and Cajun's Magic  (2), the first two finishers in the Affirmed division of the FSS at seven furlongs four weeks ago. They're both perfectly logical, but neither one has a pedigree that cries out for two turns, and we're looking at Globes  (4) and Cattin  (9) as possible price plays.

While he is still a maiden after two starts, Globes is making the turf-to-dirt switch, which is something that worked for Boca Boy  when he upset the 2020 In Reality at 12-1. His pedigree (by Brethren   and out of a Tiznow  mare) bodes well for the surface switch, as do a recent bullet five-furlong workout over the track and trainer Juan Alvarado's strong R.O.I. with turf-to-dirt starters.

Cattin rallied up the rail to win his 5 1/2-furlong debut, then did some late running to get fourth in the Affirmed. He now gets blinkers after picking up the pace in two follow-up works. And interestingly, although his sire Neolithic   never won a stakes, he banked more than $2.2 million with in-the-money finishes in all five graded stakes attempts, including the inaugural Pegasus World Cup (G1) here in 2017.

A - 4, 9

B - 2, 7

Pennsylvania Derby (Prx, race 12, 5:49 ET): Keepmeinmind  (2), Hot Rod Charlie  (7), and Midnight Bourbon  (8) share a common trait, in that each of them arguably ran their best race in defeat against division leader Essential Quality  during the summer.

Of those three, I'm a trifle leery of Hot Rod Charlie. He was meant for the TVG Pacific Classic (G1), but was rerouted to this race when his connections surmised he needed more time to recover from taxing efforts in the TVG Haskell (G1) and Belmont Stakes Presented By NYRA Bets (G1).

The late-running Keepmeinmind didn't get the right pace setup chasing Midnight Bourbon in the Runhappy Travers (G1), but is dangerous at a square price if Hot Rod Charlie keeps the latter occupied early. We're keying these two.

Our two price chances are Speaker's Corner  (3) and Americanrevolution  (9).

In view of Godolphin winning four graded stakes last weekend at Belmont and Woodbine, Speaker's Corner is presumed to be peaking for his stakes debut on the heels of a fast and visually impressive return win over allowance company at Saratoga. That was his first outing since a key-race maiden win last October against several subsequent stakes winners, and it's worth noting trainer Bill Mott sent out To Honor and Serve  to win the 2011 Pennsylvania Derby off an allowance prep at the Spa.

Americanrevolution, a New York-bred son of Constitution  , was a troubled fourth behind Mandaloun  (promoted to first in the Haskell) sprinting at Keeneland last fall. He is back with open company after winning three straight this year off a trainer change to Todd Pletcher, capped by an easy score in the Albany Stakes at Saturday's nine-furlong distance.

A - 2, 8

B - 3, 7, 10