Assessing lightly raced fillies is always tricky, even in championship events such as the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (G1) on Sept. 25.
Do not be surprised to see marked improvement from any of these 2-year-olds. Four of the last six winners had been beaten on their previous start and that sextet improved their Racing Post Rating by between six pounds and 11 pounds. Their average rise was just under nine pounds—which would suggest any of eight contenders could be feasible winners.
The pick on RPRs and BHA ratings is Sacred Bridge , albeit she has not achieved an RPR that was good enough to win this race in any of the last eight years.
She certainly looks open to further progress having taken a significant step forward when upped to group 3 class at the Curragh, where she showed a smart turn of speed to settle things quickly when drawing away by nearly four lengths in the Aug. 27 Heider Family Stables Round Tower Stakes (G3).
That said, it was not an obviously strong running of a race her trainer Ger Lyons took with subsequent Cheveley Park winner Lightening Pearl a decade ago and she is a short price considering there are plenty of likely improvers among her rivals.
"I wouldn't change her for anything in the race," said Lyons. "If she rocks up and does what she's been doing all summer then happy days, but this is a stern test."
The Ismail Mohammed trained-Zain Claudette is certainly a filly on the up, having completed a hat-trick when landing the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (G2) last month.
"Everything has been good with her since York and she's stepped up every time she runs," said Jose Santos, assistant to Mohammed. "The draw is spot on and having walked the track, we expect the ground to suit her. Her recent work has been amazing."
Yet she is no certainty to confirm superiority over Sandrine , who had progressed through wins in the Albany Stakes (G3) and Duchess of Cambridge Stakes Sponsored by Bet365 (G2) and was slightly slowly away at York, where she gave the winner three pounds and was beaten only a length.
Nor should Flotus be discounted. She showed considerable improvement when ridden from the front to make use of her speed at Ripon, where she was eased close to home yet still passed the post four and a half lengths clear, while it would take a brave punter to write off Tenebrism just because she has run only once and not been seen since March.
That run was a most encouraging one as she defied greenness and trouble in running to win going away by nearly four lengths at Naas Racecourse.
"(Tenebrism is) a lovely, fast filly who we've always thought a lot of," said trainer Aidan O'Brien. "It's a long time since she's run though, and she'll improve for whatever she does."
She has high-class breeding being by Caravaggio out of Coronation Stakes (G1) winner Immortal Verse , and it is easy to think she might well have played a part in the season's top races had she not been off the track since that debut.
O'Brien knows what a Cheveley Park winner looks like having trained three in the last five years, and in a race of improvers Tenebrism could be anything.