Handicapping: Rich Breeders' Cup Prep Weekend

The Breeders' Cup World Championships prep stakes come fast and furious the next two weekends—so much so, in fact, that a two-day "Breeders Cup Challenge Pick 6" will be offered each of the next two weekends. The wager features a $1 minimum, a 15% rake, and a mandatory payout.

The sequence for Oct. 2-3 begins Saturday with the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park and then moves to Santa Anita Park for the Santa Anita Sprint Championship Stakes (G2), Rodeo Drive Stakes (G1T), and Awesome Again Stakes (G1). Sunday's concluding legs are the Frizette Stakes (G1) from Belmont and the Zenyatta (G1) from Santa Anita.

A similar wager will link Breeder's Cup Challenge races from Belmont and Keeneland the weekend of Oct. 9-10.

There are three additional stakes at Belmont this Saturday—the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2T), the Belmont Turf Sprint Invitational (G3T), and the Woodward Stakes (G1), which had been run at Saratoga Race Course from 2005-20. In the Woodward, Maxfield  will be favored to notch his first grade 1 victory since the 2019 Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1). The Godolphin homebred by Street Sense   takes on recent Charles Town Classic Stakes (G2) winner Art Collector , and Code of Honor , an accomplished earner of more than $2.8 million and three-time graded stakes winner at Belmont

The Saturday stakes action at Santa Anita begins with the City of Hope Mile Stakes (G2T) and concludes with the John Henry Turf Championship (G2T).

Meanwhile, a stakes doubleheader at Churchill Downs is comprised of the Lukas Classic Stakes (G3) and the Ack Ack Stakes (G3).

Knicks Go , who won his way into the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) by taking the Whitney Stakes (G1) last out, is pegged at 2-5 against five rivals—notably the comebacking Tacitus —in the Lukas Classic.

The one-mile Ack Ack features the stakes debut of Beau Liam , a Stonestreet Stables homebred by Liam's Map  , who stretches out after three blazing sprint wins to begin his career.

Getting through the Champagne means BC Challenge Pick 6 bettors can be alive for almost two and a half hours until the next three legs get underway on the West Coast. Let's go through the races in order and see if we can stay alive overnight! All times Eastern.

Champagne (Bel, race 8, 4:40): You'd ordinarily think the first two finishers from the Hopeful Stakes (G1) would be the ones to beat in this spot, but concerning Gunite  (5) and Wit  (1), that may not be the case.

Gunite was unveiled in late April and the homebred by leading first-crop sire Gun Runner   has thrived on a busy schedule, showing steady improvement through five starts. That being said, the Beyer Speed Figure he received for winning the Hopeful made it the slowest running of that race since the figures were first published in 1990. Wit was a distant second after stumbling at the start, and that was the third time in as many outings he has failed to break alertly.

Meh.

My Prankster  (2) and Jack Christopher  (3) were unveiled, respectively, on Alabama Day and Travers Day by Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown, and each drew off to graduate from the maiden ranks very impressively, visually, and against the clock.

Onward and upward!

A - 2, 3

B - 1, 5

SA Sprint Championship (SA, race 8, 7:06): There isn't much pace in this six-furlong dash, and it's tough to completely trust Vertical Threat  (2) even with the prospect of a clear early lead. His single big-figure performance last year came on a sealed muddy track in the Steel Valley Sprint Stakes at Hollywood Gaming at Mahoning Valley Race Course, and he rode a gold rail wiring the Russell Road Stakes Presented by Triple Crown Nutrition at Hollywood Casino at Charles Town Races on the Charles Town Classic undercard.

C Z Rocket  (4) captured the Hot Springs and Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) at Oaklawn Park to begin the season. However, the 2020 Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) runner-up has been a beaten favorite in three subsequent starts, most recently when second in the Pat O'Brien Stakes (G2) with a belated rally.

The half-full view is that C Z Rocket came out of the Pat O'Brien to win this race last year over Flagstaff  (5), who was subsequently disqualified from purse money due to a bisphosphonate positive, and Collusion Illusion  (6). The latter has some appeal going turf to dirt and adding blinkers on the heels of a bullet workout Sept. 25.

Dr. Schivel  (1) outkicked C Z Rocket in the Bing Crosby Stakes (G1), which was the fourth straight win for the 3-year-old colt by Violence  , a streak that includes the 2020 Runhappy Del Mar Futurity (G1). He is capable of laying fairly close to the pace and has won from the rail on this track.

A - 1, 4

B - 2, 5, 6

Rodeo Drive (SA, race 9, 7:38): As she showed with a front-running score in the Santa Ana Stakes (G3T) earlier this year, Going to Vegas  (4) is dangerous when allowed to control the pace going 1 1/4 miles on this course. She looms the controlling speed once again and enters in sharp form after a stalk-and-pounce win in the John C. Mabee Stakes (G2T).

Magic Attitude  (7) and Red Lark  (9) earned grade 1 victories as 3-year-olds in 2020, but have combined for one win in nine starts at 4.

Luck  (8) ran on all-weather tracks through her first three starts in France. Shipped overseas for her first-ever try on firm turf, she turned heads taking an allowance optional claimer with a strong finishing kick at Del Mar. The daughter of Kitten's Joy   is the "now" filly here.

Dogtag  (1) has contracted a case of the dreaded "seconditis" with four runner-up finishes from as many starts this year. One of them, though, was against the streaking Princess Grace , who has won four graded stakes in a row. Moreover, Dogtag has won and placed in the last two editions of the Possibly Perfect Stakes over this course and trip, so leave her out at your own peril.

A - 4, 8

B - 1, 7, 9

Awesome Again (SA, race 10, 8:10): Whatever you make of Bob Baffert's curious decision to scratch Medina Spirit  (5) from the Sept. 25 Pennsylvania Derby (G1), 20-20 hindsight makes it look like a prudent move because there's no way he was beating Hot Rod Charlie , who freaked with a 111 Beyer Figure. And he probably wasn't beating Midnight Bourbon  for second, either.

The fact that Medina Spirit was withheld from a $1 million race against 3-year-olds, ostensibly because of a wide draw, to take on older for $300,000 a week later makes me leery of what to expect. I'm tossing Medina Spirit, so head for the windows if you like him.

Idol  (8) is one to watch going forward, but the 1 1/8-mile distance is shorter than what he prefers and this seems like a prep for the returning Santa Anita Handicap (G1) winner in the truest sense of the word.

Tripoli  (7) ran on turf in his first 11 races, which seems logical enough for a son of Kitten's Joy. But wow, he has improved significantly in three starts since switched to dirt, capped by the TVG Pacific Classic Stakes (G1), in which he ran down Tizamagician  (1).

Tizamagician cuts back to 1 1/8 miles for the first time since running second to Express Train  (3) in the San Pasqual Stakes (G2) back in late January. If nothing else, Tizamagician will make Medina Spirit work hard through the early going.

Express Train is an in-and-outer who's hard to gauge, but the beaten favorite in the Pacific Classic can be in the mix if in the mood.

A - 7

B - 1, 3, 8