Handicapping: Grade 1 Action Focused on Keeneland
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It's another very busy weekend of Breeders' Cup Challenge races, nine of which will be contested during the opening three days at Keeneland. A stellar card in Lexington Oct. 9 includes four of them: the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2), First Lady Stakes Presented By UK Healthcare (G1T), Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1), and Keeneland Turf Mile (G1T).
At Belmont Park, a stakes tripleheader is comprised of the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1T), Matron Stakes (G3T), and Vosburgh Stakes (G2), the latter a Challenge race for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1).
There is another two-day BC Challenge Pick Six available with a $1 minimum and a 15% takeout. The sequence starts Saturday with the Vosburgh, First Lady, and Keeneland Turf Mile, and concludes Sunday with the Futurity (G3T) from Belmont, and the Juddmonte Spinster (G1) and Castle & Key Bourbon Stakes (G2T) from Keeneland.
Fun fact: 16 of 20 graded stakes last weekend—80%—were won by the post-time favorite, with half of those winners held at odds-on.
Perhaps things will open up a bit this weekend. Let's hope so, anyway, since the four Saturday stakes we're looking at here all have at least a dozen entrants.
Matron (Bel, race 6, 3:15): Lady Danae (4) is the play to rebound, after the 2-year-old filly by Klimt flattened out to finish fifth as the favorite in the Ainsworth Stakes at Kentucky Downs. She raced impossibly wide on a course that was favoring inside lanes and showed high promise prior to that when she outkicked Bubble Rock (7) in her unveiling at Saratoga Race Course.
Along with Bubble Rock, we're keying Lady Danae with Wesley Ward's duo of Poppy Flower (1) and Chi Town Lady (8), as well as Mystic Eyes (3), the runner-up in the Ainsworth for Todd Pletcher.
A - 4
B - 1, 3, 7, 8
First Lady (Kee, race 8, 4:44 ET): The A team consists of Althiqa (3), who captured the Longines Just a Game Stakes (G1T) and Diana (G1T) over the summer for Godolphin and Charles Appleby; and Regal Glory (6), who uncorked a sub-22-second final quarter-mile to get up in the Fasig-Tipton De La Rose Stakes last out for Chad Brown.
The intriguing B team is comprised of Empress Josephine (2) and Daddy Is a Legend (7).
Empress Josephine invades for Aidan O'Brien and was classy enough to win the Tattersalls Irish One Thousand Guineas (G1) in May over Joan of Arc , who subsequently took the Prix de Diane Longines (French Oaks, G1).
Daddy Is a Legend is a three-time winner over the local turf, and appears to be cycling back to a peak performance after a mild late gain in the Fourstardave Handicap (G1).
A - 3, 6
B - 2, 7
Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (Kee, race 9, 5:15 ET): Classic Causeway (13) could be any kind based on an authoritative and fast debut victory at seven furlongs, but the son of Giant's Causeway will need to be used early from post 13 to get any kind of decent position.
We're also keying Don't Wait Up (5), who has trained up a storm since a second-out maiden win; and Great Escape (9), another second-out maiden winner, whose trainer, Rudy Brisset, boasts excellent numbers stretching out.
In backup mode are Double Thunder (1), a three-time winner from a cozy post; Stellar Tap (3), the beaten choice in the Iroquois (G3); Rattle N Roll (6), who has won at Saturday's 1 1/16-mile trip; and American Sanctuary (7), who was a close second to Double Thunder in the Sapling Stakes.
A - 5, 9, 13
B - 1, 3, 6, 7
Keeneland Turf Mile (Kee, race 10, 5:46 ET): Relying on the horse-for-course angle again here with Ivar (6), a Brazilian-bred who won this race at 14-1 last year; and Order of Australia (10), who posted a 73-1 upset of the 2020 Breeders' Cup FanDuel Mile (G1T).
Underneath we're looking at In Love (3), a stablemate of Ivar who, like that one, is a Brazilian-bred son of Agnes Gold; Space Traveller (4), who had difficult trips behind loose-on-the-lead winners in both the Mr. D Stakes (G1T) and Ricoh Woodbine Mile (G1T); and Diamond Oops (11), a close second at 12-1 in this race two years ago.
A - 6, 10
B - 3, 4, 11