Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down
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Materiality punched his ticket to the Kentucky derby with a win in the Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they were one week ago.
Heating Up
1. Materiality
Eclipse Sportswire
Materiality has it all: talent, unblemished record, strong pedigree, elite speed figures. What’s not to like, other than the curse of Apollo? Well, yeah, there is that. No horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882. Most of these old, tired rules about what type of layoff, how many starts at three, etc., have been proven to be garbage over the last decade-plus. But not this curse. I’m not going to get too hung up on it because I’m pretty sure he’s one of the best five 3-year-olds in this crop. With a little luck, he should be in the hunt in the stretch at Churchill Downs on May 2. Could that lack of 2-year-old foundation haunt him in the final 50 yards of the Kentucky Derby? Definitely. But the point is, I think he’ll be right there with a shot at the eighth pole. His 115 Equibase Speed Figure is at the top of the division this year and I loved the way he fought off Upstart when he came to challenge in the Florida Derby. This is a serious racehorse, Apollo be damned! (Sorry, Apollo. No offense meant …)
2. Mubtaahij
Eclipse Sportswire
Mubtaahij has put together an impressive streak of four wins in his last five starts, none moreso than his electrifying eight-length runaway win in the United Arab Emirates Derby on March 28 at Meydan Racecourse. The manner in which he trounced the opposition was breathtaking and he would be much higher on my list if that victory came in Florida or New York or California. But the trip from Dubai to the U.S. is no easy trek for a horse, especially with only five weeks between starts and no margin for error in the case of a setback or even jet lag. I think this is one of the five most talented 3-year-olds who will line up in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, but it would be tough to back him for the win. On the plus side, his trainer Mike de Kock is one of the finest on the planet and this horse should have no trouble with the distance.
3. Stanford
Eclipse Sportswire
I considered very seriously giving this slot to International Star, but the reality is I already had him rated very highly and he didn’t have much room to rise. Picking Stanford shows how highly I think of International Star. Stanford is improving at the right time and gave a heck of a fight to a scrapper in International Star in the stretch of the Louisiana Derby. I like the steady improvement and the fact that he hails from the family of champion Johannesburg and Grade 2 winner and sire Tale of the Cat. By Malibu Moon, Stanford gets some stamina from his sire and his Kentucky Derby ticket is punched with the runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby. In previous years where there were always a handful of sprinters in the Derby field, I would have liked Stanford a lot less, but I don’t think will see as many crazy-fast pace scenarios under the new system. Plus, he’s shown some versatility by winning from off the pace twice. I won’t have him on any of my Derby tickets to win, but once the race is drawn I could see using him underneath and hoping he hangs on for a minor prize if the price is massive.
Cooling Off
1. War Story
Eclipse Sportswire
With 3-year-olds, the breakthrough performance can come at any time. I’ve been expecting — for quite some time — War Story to turn in that eye-catching race that would give me hope for his chances in the Kentucky Derby, but it just hasn’t happened this winter/spring. I still like War Story, but the problem is time is up. The Kentucky Derby is four weeks away and War Story’s distant third in the Louisiana Derby, beaten by 4 ½ lengths, does not inspire a ton of hope. He has sufficient points to make the Kentucky Derby field, but at this point I think it’s pretty clear that he’s a notch or two below the elite runners of his generation. On the positive side, he has never finished worse than third, so there’s some consistency here. He might be a name to remember for the bottom of trifecta and superfecta tickets on Derby day.
2. Itsaknockout
Gulfstream Park Photo
Itsaknockout is another horse who will enter the Kentucky Derby off of a disappointing effort. He has the points to qualify, but if history serves as a guide, 3-year-olds coming into the Kentucky Derby off of significant regressions or uncharacteristically poor efforts almost never rebound in the big race. Sure, you’ll see a 3-year-old who finished second or third by less than a length bounce back in the Derby, but Itsaknockout finished 21 lengths behind winner Materiality in the Florida Derby on March 28. It's tough to return to top form in a 20-horse field on a rigid schedule against the best of your generation. Needless to say that’s a lot of real estate to make up in a few weeks. I really like his pedigree for classic distances, but as of right now I will be looking elsewhere for Derby contenders.
3. Far From Over
Eclipse Sportswire
It was so disappointing to hear that Far From Over will miss the Triple Crown with a hairline fracture that is not expected to be career-ending. He should be able to return in the fall, which is great news, but I absolutely loved his Withers Stakes win and his pedigree was ideal for the Kentucky Derby. I believe wholeheartedly that Far From Over is a unique talent with huge potential. I don’t say that lightly. He’s one of the few 3-year-olds I thought could progress to become better than my leading Derby hopefuls — Dortmund, American Pharoah and Firing Line — and I still believe that. We’ll just have to wait a while to see what type of racehorse he can become ... wishing Far From Over a complete and speedy recovery.
CURRY'S DERBY TOP 10
1. Dortmund 2. American Pharoah 3. Firing Line 4. Carpe Diem 5. Materiality 6. International Star 7. Far Right 8. Mubtaahij 9. Upstart 10. Bolo
Four on the bubble: Prospect Park, Stanford, El Kabeir, Ocho Ocho Ocho
Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.