Unrivaled Upset-Minded in Blue Grass Stakes

Carpe Diem is a likely favorite in Saturday's Blue Grass Stakes, but Unrivaled could spring the upset. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire) 
The purse for the 91st running of the Grade 1 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes has been raised to the lofty $1-million mark for the first time, and the race has been moved up one week from recent years. These two changes, plus the fact that the race will be run on traditional dirt for the first time since 2006, help make the Keeneland race extremely significant on the "Road to the Derby" this year. Leading the field is Carpe Diem, who surprised this writer by winning the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby last month easily by five lengths following four months away from the races.
Seven others hope to earn enough points to enter the starting gate at Churchill Downs in four weeks. Included in this group is last year's Grade 3 Delta Jackpot Stakes winner Ocho Ocho Ocho, who disappointed badly when eighth last month, making his first start as a 3-year-old in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes. Unrivaled enters the Blue Grass off a pair of visually impressive wins and is facing stakes competition for the first time.
Pepper Roani finished second in the John Battaglia Stakes at the end of February and was expected to run in the Spiral Stakes but did not draw into the race and needs to run big in the Blue Grass to have any hope of running in the Derby. Tampa Bay Derby fourth- and fifth-place finishers, Danzig Moon and Gorgeous Bird, respectively, as well as Fountain of Youth Stakes third-place finisher Frammento also need to improve dramatically to have a say in the outcome. Classy Class has finished third in both starts this year including the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes and may have room to improve.
Main Contenders:
Unrivaled debuted last July and finished fifth, then improved to finish third before missing by a nose at Keeneland in a two-turn race last October. Given almost two months off, Unrivaled shortened up to one-turn, finishing second again. When sent long in his next race on December 23 he exploded with a tremendous burst of speed to win by 15 lengths with a career best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. To put that figure into perspective, Carpe Diem, the heavy favorite for this race, earned the same 105 figure winning the Tampa Bay Derby last month.
Purchased privately by Team Valor International following that win, Unrivaled returned on March 15 after nearly three months off; a more mature three year old to be sure. In that race, Unrivaled lagged far back in the early stages and began a rally on the far turn. Still three lengths back with an eighth of a mile to run, Unrivaled lengthened his stride and won by five lengths with gas in the tank at the end. Considering Team Valor International knows how to get a horse ready for the Kentucky Derby, having won in 2011 with Animal Kingdom, and with experience at Keeneland, Unrivaled can make his mark in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and post the upset.
Carpe Diem won the first two starts of his career, including the Breeders' Futurity last October at Keeneland. Finishing second to 6 ½- length winner Texas Red in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November, Carpe Diem was given time off to grow and mature. Returning last month in the Tampa Bay Derby and in spite of being away from the races for four months, Carpe Diem ran as if he had never been away, dominating to win by five lengths with a career best 105 Equibase Speed Figure. With logical improvement in his second start off the layoff, Carpe Diem should run even better and may be the deserved Blue Grass favorite with every right to win.
CARPE DIEM WINS THE BREEDERS' FUTURITY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Classy Class is another horse being handled in a manner that suggests a big effort. He won a sprint in his debut last October, then finished fourth in the Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. Rested 2 ½ months, Classy Class set the early pace in the Withers Stakes in February but had to battle head-and-head for much of the race before tiring to finish third.
New tactics were on display in the Gotham Stakes last month as he raced sixth early before rallying for third. In the Gotham, Classy Class had some traffic issues at the top of the stretch then when asked to rally did so nicely, battling for second down to the wire as the winner drew off. Having improved from a 98 speed figure in the Gotham to a 100 figure in the Withers, Classy Class has the right to take another step forward and be a strong factor in the stretch of the Blue Grass Stakes.
For exotic wagers such as the Exacta and Trifecta, I will be considering Pepper Roani as well. After five losses to begin his career, Pepper Roani added blinkers for start six and the result was a strong 3-length win with a career best 104 speed figure. In his next start, the John Battaglia Stakes, Pepper Roani raced far back and rallied very wide to finish second with no chance of catching the runaway winner. Hoping to run in the Spiral Stakes last month, the colt did not draw into the race as there were too many horses entered. With a new jockey, Miguel Mena, in the saddle and having run two races in a row that might be competitive if repeated in the Blue Grass, Pepper Roani is another to be considered as a contender.
The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Danzig Moon (95), Frammento (96), Gorgeous Bird (90) and Ocho Ocho Ocho (105).
My Selections:
Unrivaled
Carpe Diem
Classy Class
You can get Ellis' detailed selections and analysis for the entire day of racing at Keeneland at Equibase.com. 

$1-million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes
Saturday, Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, 6 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
Coverage on NBC Sports at 5 p.m. ET 

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owners

M-L

1

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Santiago Gonzalez

James Cassidy

DP Racing

6-1

2

Gorgeous Bird

Brian Hernandez Jr.

Ian Wilkes

Marylou Whitney Stables

8-1

3

Pepper Roani

Miguel Mena

Mike Maker

Skychai Racing and Sand Dollar Stable

12-1

4

Unrivaled

Robby Albarado

Marya Montoya

Team Valor International

12-1

5

Carpe Diem

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable

1-1

6

Frammento

Gary Stevens

Nick Zito

Mossarosa

8-1

7

Classy Class

Junior Alvarado

Kiaran McLaughlin

Cheyenne Stables

6-1

8

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John C. Oxley

8-1