Betting the Santa Anita Derby on a Budget

The 2015 edition of the Grade I, $1-million Santa Anita Derby drew a compact but intriguing field of six, and it is interesting to note that two of the last three Kentucky Derby winners won this race at Santa Anita Park before they shipped to Louisville: California Chrome in 2014 and I’ll Have Another in 2012.
All eyes will be on the undefeated Dortmund who has shaken off all his challengers up until now, including three consecutive graded stakes victories. He got a pretty comfortable trip last time out when setting the pace and taking the field from gate to wire and although he’s shown tremendous talent, the only thing that I think can get him beat in the Santa Anita Derby is a troubled trip from his inside draw.
His stablemate One Lucky Dane is immediately to his outside and he looks like a need-the-lead type of runner and I imagine that jockey Martin Garcia will not be sending Dortmund to battle for the lead in this spot. If Dortmund takes back after the start to allow One Lucky Dane to cross over and set the pace, that might allow the rest of the field to drop in and make it tough for Dortmund to get an easy trip.
My pick for this race will once again be Prospect Park, who I previously picked to win the San Felipe where he finished a good second behind Dortmund. Entering the turn, Prospect Park looked to be empty but then he re-engaged down the stretch while finishing up with good energy in the final yards before running out of ground. I feel that he’s still improving and if his last race is any indication, this longer distance might be to his liking.
Bad Read Sanchez is a longshot that will be making his 3-year-old debut after taking some time off since July. His debut win back in June of 2014 was visually impressive and it’s interesting to note that it happened over this track. He then finished a troubled second when heavily favored at Los Alamitos and later completed his 2-year-old campaign with a third in the Best Pal Stakes over the Del Mar synthetic. This will be his first try around two turns but his early speed might have him in a great spot throughout the race.
Top picks: 5-1-6
Betting Strategy on a $22 Budget:
$10 Win: 5
$1 Trifecta ($12): 5 with 1,4,6 with 1,2,3,4,6
$1-million Santa Anita Derby
Saturday, Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 6:30 p.m. ET
1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
Coverage on NBC Sports Network starting at 5 p.m. ET

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

ML

1

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

Kaleem Shah

3-5

2

One Lucky Dane

Rafael Bejarano

Bob Baffert

Michael Lund Petersen

5-1

3

Cross the Line

Juan Hernandez

Jerry Hollendorfer

Red Cap Thoroughbreds LLC, Sigband or Todaro, Et Al

15-1

4

Bolo

Mike Smith

Carla Gaines

Golden Pegasus Racing

4-1

5

Prospect Park

Kent Desormeaux

Clifford Sise, Jr.

Pam and Marty Wygod

7-2

6

Bad Read Sanchez

Mario Gutierrez

Doug O'Neill

Reddam Racing

30-1