Bram’s Take: Making Dollars and Sense of Small Derby Prep Fields
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Dortmund (above after winning the San Felipe Stakes) is the heavy favorite for Saturday's Santa nita Derby. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
Where did all the contenders go? Six horses in the Santa Anita Derby? Seven in the Wood Memorial Stakes? What happened this year? And exactly what does this all mean in terms of the Kentucky Derby because can you really project how anyone is going to do in a field of 20 elite 3-year-olds when they ran an elongated sprint against a few hopefuls?
And then there is this whacked out reality: I kind of like a horse that has run twice in his career. Twice!
Listen, I don’t need a field of 12 to make this weekend interesting but I’m stunned at how whittled down these fields are. The only solace is if one of these horses wins either one of those races handily, it’ll only mean he’ll be bet up in Louisville on May 2, and that’s where I hope to take advantage of the situation.
Lets start with the Wood Memorial Stakes at Aqueduct:
Tiz Shea D—He’s only run twice, but one of them was in a graded stakes race and a second-place finish to one of the favorites in the Wood, El Kabeir. I’m never openly pleased when a jockey change is made for the sake of a jockey change and the name Manuel Franco doesn’t make me do cartwheels, but obviously there is huge upside here. … Bill Mott has a live one and it’s a leap of faith, but I may be jumping in head first.
Toasting Master—He can toast the winner, because it won’t be him. Fades in stretch. Prepare concession speech now.
Lieutenant Colonel—A second horse in the field who has run twice! How is this even possible? Considering his last race was the same race that gave me hope for Tiz Shea D, and that performance was an all-time clunker, I'm somewhat surprised he’s back, but considering this field is a bingo hopper, I guess the connections said, “why not?” I'm not in the same boat of belief, so I’ll pass, but again, like Tiz, who knows?
Frosted—I really don’t want him to win because I hate the name. That’s an incredibly stupid reason to want to pass, but I do like my champions to have resonance. Lame, I know, but who wants a Derby winner named Ringworm or Kale Salad? That said, obviously I better start warming up to Frosted because he can easily win here. The change to Joel Rosario is an upgrade clearly, so the connections hope Frosted becomes a better finisher with a new jock on his back. He’s been in more stakes races then two of the previously mentioned entrants have been in total races, so there’s that. I’m not much for picking the horse who never closes the deal, thinking this time it will be different, but clearly based on the competition he’ll have a real shot.
El Kabeir—If he runs the way he did in his last race here, a win at the Gotham Stakes, I assume he’ll win again. His previous run was a second-place finish in another Grade 3 race, the times of which suggested a hot pace might not sit well with him. Again though, factor a short field, some really inexperienced wild cards, a couple of entrants that don’t feel right at all, and shazam, heading to Churchill Downs having won two straight on this track seems more likely. Clearly, he has the goods and clearly deserves to be the post-time favorite.
EL KABEIR A WORTHY FAVORITE
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Daredevil—He’s raced once since November, which I don’t love and don’t really hate either. The fact that he couldn’t gain ground after making the turn three-wide says maybe he’s just getting back up to speed or, and considering his ability to not just win but blow away fields in the fall (allbeit against 2-year-olds), maybe he’s lost a tiny bit of a step. If he runs the way he did pre-Breeders’ Cup clunker, he might go wire to wire. If he doesn't, will he actually catch someone in the stretch … HMMMMMMM.
Tencendur—He lays back and then doesn’t make any significant moves in the stretch. His speed figures are ticking upward after each run, which is a nice sign, but I don’t assume even if he runs his best race that it is enough. He could hit the board, but I don’t see enough here to believe he’ll win.
The Pick—I can’t believe I’m saying this but I’m going to take a shot on Tiz Shea D. If Daredevil sets the pace, I probably lose. If El Kabeir isn’t drawn out by a hot pace by Daredevil, I probably lose. And while I know you don’t know me, you have to trust me that this is a total blow to my constitution. So, I’ll be a huckleberry this time and take a shot on Tiz.
$1-million Twinspires.com Wood Memorial StakesSaturday, Aqueduct, Race 10, 5:30 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsCoverage on NBC Sports at 5 p.m. ET
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
M-L
1
Tiz Shea D
Manuel Franco
Bill Mott
Wachtel Stable, Brous Stable LLC and Barber, Gary
8-1
2
Toasting Master
Angel Arroyo
Dale Romans
West Point Thoroughbreds
20-1
3
Lieutenant Colonel
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Chad Brown
Harvey A. Clarke and Paul Braverman
15-1
4
Frosted
Joel Rosario
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
5-2
5
El Kabeir
Charles C. Lopez
John Terranova
Zayat Stables
3-1
6
Daredevil
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Let's Go Stable, WinStar Farm LLC and China Horse Club
9-5
7
Tencendur
Jose Ortiz
George Weaver
Philip S. Birsh
12-1
The Santa Anita Derby: Six horses? One is 5 for 5 in his career. Dortmund. Done. But I’m the guy who took the shot on the 8-1 horse in New York. I can’t just summarily be going chalk here.
Dortmund—He’s 5 for 5. His speed figures are great. No one thinks he’ll lose. Yada, Yada, Yada.
One Lucky Dane—So he was non-factor in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but his first (and only) race since was a blockbuster. Granted he was a like a 1-1,000,000 favorite, it was impressive. The fact that his only stakes race was a bust is disconcerting, but there are ONLY SIX HORSES here. This opens the door big time for a stunner.
Cross the Line—I will not cross the line for this one. The pace is too hot for him to handle. Peace out, Bro.
Bolo—I’m still kind of new to this thing, but when a turf horse transitions to dirt, I wonder what’s up with that? His first go in a stakes run less then a month ago was promising. And, if he gets a better trip because there are ONLY SIX HORSES here, I might be feeling itchy. Does Mike Smith, who rode him on the turf, give him an advantage over Victor Espinoza, who was aboard him on the main track? I don't know. I do know Smith wins out west a ton, and this feels like the right time to take the odds.
BOLO COULD BE DANGEROUS AT A PRICE
BENOIT Photo
Prospect Park—He didn’t have the traffic issues Bolo had in the San Felipe, and finished second to the clear winner Dortmund. So if you like Bolo, you like Prospect Park, too. Or if you like Dortmund, you think this field is a joke.
Bad Read Sanchez—Best name of the day. He’s the butt fumble of the bunch.
The Pick: Am I going to seriously parlay the Wood and the Santa Anita with mild dogs? I can picture One Lucky Dane thinking he’s got to go wire to wire and setting a decent pace. Dortmund probably will be right there or in perfect stalking position. Now, does Dane do enough to fizzle out Dortmund allowing Bolo or Prospect Park a chance to steal it in the stretch?
And the final answer is: I can’t do it. Give me Dortmund and call me any name you want that I can’t print.
$1-million Santa Anita DerbySaturday, Santa Anita Park, Race 8, 6:30 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsCoverage on NBC Sports Network starting at 5 p.m. ET
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
ML
1
Dortmund
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Kaleem Shah
3-5
2
One Lucky Dane
Rafael Bejarano
Bob Baffert
Michael Lund Petersen
5-1
3
Cross the Line
Juan Hernandez
Jerry Hollendorfer
Red Cap Thoroughbreds LLC, Sigband or Todaro, Et Al
15-1
4
Bolo
Mike Smith
Carla Gaines
Golden Pegasus Racing
4-1
5
Prospect Park
Kent Desormeaux
Clifford Sise, Jr.
Pam and Marty Wygod
7-2
6
Bad Read Sanchez
Mario Gutierrez
Doug O'Neill
Reddam Racing
30-1
Blue Grass Stakes
Finally, an actual race where I don’t have to invent some intrigue. Or, maybe not. Carpe Diem is supposed to win handily here, right? I mean how many even-money favorites are installed for a stakes race as big as this? There is another leap of faith offering and, well, I’m 1-for-2 on showing some guts.
Ocho Ocho Ocho—So, as of November, this horse wasn’t 6-1 and that means Carpe Diem isn’t as heavy of a favorite. Clearly, if he is back to top form, he can win here as clearly he would be considered the second choice, if not the post-time favorite. But his first race of 2015 was awful. And no offense to Santiago Gonzalez, but how did Santiago Gonzalez end up on a horse with this kind of potential? I'm tempted to just take a chance and hope for the best, but all signs point to that being fools’ gold.
CAN OCHO OCHO OCHO (inside) REGAIN HIS BEST FORM?
Coady Photography
Gorgeous Bird—I just don't see enough speed here. His easy win in January didn't exactly come at break-neck times. But the fact that he did do that leaves it open to the possibility that his best race might be formidable enough to scare the contenders. Maybe.
Pepper Roani—The horse was not in the type of pre-stakes preps that would even make you think he’d be in a Kentucky Derby prep race with this much on the line. I think overall the pace will be too fast. So pass on the Pepper Roani.
Unrivaled—He is definitely unrivaled among the class he’s previously run against, and this is not that class, expect for Pepper Roani. Look, the times aren't great at those Parx Racing blowouts and well, it’s Parx. If the pace is really slow for some reason, why not, maybe he’s a 12-1 winner. I doubt it.
Carpe Diem—Todd Pletcher. John Velazquez. Most consistent horse. Most stakes experience. Wins or is right there every time. The field isn't chock full of quality contenders. Got it.
Frammento—Am I missing something that this horse isn’t 20-1 or longer? I just don’t see it at all. The fact that his odds aren’t frighteningly high tells me the oddsmakers think a little more of him then his numbers suggest. Now, don't get your panties in a bunch, that doesn’t mean I’m a believer, but senses are heightened here.
Classy Class—I might start using this when I meet people I like and tell them they have “Classy class.” That restaurant I went to: All Classy Class. As for whether he is in this Classy Class, his inability to close in his previous stakes runs don’t bode well. In fact, he typically throws in the towel in the stretch, which is the polar opposite of Classy Class ... Passy Pass.
Danzig Moon—He finished 12-plus lengths back of Carpe Diem in Tampa and has one win in four tries overall. Now, his workouts are worth noting here. I don’t know where you fall on the whole workout thing, but I'm one of those who can be intrigued by it, and the last couple of workouts are, well, intriguing. Certainly, he’s in any exotic bet.
The Pick: It is really hard for me to pick Ocho Ocho Ocho, but the odds are beyond sexy. He falls below 4-1, though, and I’d lose interest. I also want to make a case for Danzig Moon and pretend Julien Leparoux saved his mount when it was clear he wasn’t going to win at Tampa Bay Downs, and that those workouts say his best is yet to come. Or, I could just say that Frammento has too much modest support to be ignored. But the bottom line is the connections and the track record say you have to think Carpe Diem wins.
But just in case, here’s the Fully Milty: Trifecta box- Ocho Ocho Ocho, Gorgeous Bird, Carpe Diem, Frammento, Danzig Moon.
$1-million Toyota Blue Grass StakesSaturday, Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, 6 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-oldsCoverage on NBC Sports at 5 p.m. ET
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owners
M-L
1
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Santiago Gonzalez
James Cassidy
DP Racing
6-1
2
Gorgeous Bird
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Ian Wilkes
Marylou Whitney Stables
8-1
3
Pepper Roani
Miguel Mena
Mike Maker
Skychai Racing and Sand Dollar Stable
12-1
4
Unrivaled
Robby Albarado
Marya Montoya
Team Valor International
12-1
5
Carpe Diem
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable
1-1
6
Frammento
Gary Stevens
Nick Zito
Mossarosa
8-1
7
Classy Class
Junior Alvarado
Kiaran McLaughlin
Cheyenne Stables
6-1
8
Danzig Moon
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
John C. Oxley
8-1