Welcome to ABR’s Hoops and horses column, where winners play!
Horse racing is Joe Kristufek’s means to an end, and he loves the sport like no other, but as a Chicago Bulls season-ticket holder for seven years and a feared participant in fantasy hoops, he also has his finger on the pulse of the NBA.
From growing up with the Flintstones of Michigan State, running March Madness pools out of his hidden manila envelope in high school, to attending conference tournaments, Sweet 16s and Final Fours ... college basketball runs in Derek Cooley’s blood.
Let’s sprint out on the fast break, spring the horses from the gate and pad our bankrolls!
Pro Hoops – by Joe Kristufek
We’ve hit the sixteenth pole in the NBA season and this is the time teams tighten the screws before the playoffs, or loosen them in search of draft riches.
Last Week: 3-1 (.750)
Year to Date: 12-12 (.500)
Friday, April 3
Charlotte Hornets at Indiana Pacers UNDER 194
Both teams are within two games of the final playoff spot and defense is their calling card. This resembles a postseason game, and it will most likely be played close to the vest.
Boston Celtics (-5.5) vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Celtics are tied for the final playoff slot. They’ve been playing very well of late and coach Brad Stevens’ young team is hungry. The Bucks are the epitome of average.
Memphis Grizzlies (-5.5) v. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Griz are jockeying for playoff position while the Thunder are fighting for their lives for the eighth spot. The Thunder is decimated by injuries and Russell Westbrook, as good as he is, will very likely have a tough time against a superior defense that will focus directly on him.
RUSSELL WESTBROOK CAN'T CARRY THUNDER ALONE AGAINST GRIZZLIES
Photo by Eric Drost/WikiMedia Commons
Minnesota Timberwolves (+3) v. Orlando Magic
The Magic has been outscored by an average of 10.5 points during a 12-game road streak, yet they’re favored in Minnesota. The Wolves are banged up, but rising stars Andrew Wiggins and Zac Levine play hard, and they’d like to win a few more games before the season ends.
College Hoops – by Derek Cooley
Saturday is usually the best day for college hoops, with marquee match-ups morning, noon and night. Weekly, I’ll provide a brief synopsis of what I see - as well as a final score “prediction” - which you can use as a guide to tackling the money line, spread and/or the over/under total. This week, we’ll tackle the Final Four games on Saturday night.
Let’s take a look at how we faired against the spread and over/under the final totals according to our most recent score predictions, in comparison with the outcomes … as well as the upset selection.
Against the Spread (last week/overall): (2-1) (11-7)
Over/Under: (1-2) (13-5)
Upset Pick: (0-1) (2-4)
Last Week: 3-4
Year to Date: 26-16 (.619)
Here are my selections for this Saturday’s Final Four from the beautiful Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Saturday, April 4
Michigan State v. Duke (6:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
These two teams played earlier this season, but those were two completely different squads … so I basically throw that result out the window. Michigan State has momentum on its side, being the 7-seed to crash the No. 1-seed party here in the Final Four. Duke is playing its best defense of the season and winning handily while getting next to nothing from Jahlil Okafor.
Michigan State will really have to be dialed in from long range to take this one, because the big, glaring mismatch is down low. Look for Okafor to rise from his temporary slump in this one. MSU has the bodies to bang, but not the skill to compete with the likes of Okafor. Combine that with the emergence of superstar Justice Winslow, and that should be enough for Duke to squeeze by Cinderella.
Duke - 74
Michigan State - 68
Wisconsin v. Kentucky (8:49 p.m. ET, TBS)
What a matchup we have for the second bought of this year’s Final Four! The experience and efficiency of Wisconsin, and the skill and length of Kentucky. The star power in this game is unrivaled, with the likes of Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky on the offensive end, and Josh Gasser an absolute shut-down defender. Pit those guys against the sheer size and athletic ability of (insert any number of Kentucky players here). I mean … really, you could list eight guys on this undefeated Kentucky team and they could each be the difference.
What’s not to love about a team striving for perfection? About a team that is exactly that … a team. John Calapari has gotten all these blue-chip prospects to buy into the concept of team basketball.
JOHN CALAPARI HAS DONE A GREAT JOB WITH KENTUCKY
Photo by C. Madler/WikiMedia Commons
This will be a great one, a game for the ages. But Notre Dame did Kentucky a favor but shaking them a little. Kentucky wins this close one as well.
Kentucky - 81
Wisconsin -78
Ponies – by Joe Kristufek
We pulled a slight profit in last week’s trio of Triple Crown preps, as Materiality won the Florida Derby, Maftool ran second in the United Arab Emirates Derby and War Story checked in third in the Louisiana Derby.
Last Week: 3-1-1-1 ($2 WPS * $18 wagered * $21.00 returned)
Season Total: 79-23-17-7 ($2 WPS * $472 wagered * $488.40 returned = $6.18 ROI)
Saturday, April 4
Aqueduct - Jamaica, Queens, N.Y.
Race 10 – Wood Memorial Stakes (G1)
#6 Daredevil (morning-line odds, 9-5)
El Kabeir is talented and reliable, but Daredevil may have a better chance to be brilliant. Prior to the Breeders’ Cup debacle, he ran a pair of monster races as 2-year-old, and the comeback sprint second in the Swale Stakes should serve as a perfect steppingstone to this major Kentucky Derby prep.
Keeneland Race Course – Lexington, Ky.
Race 10 – Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
#5 Carpe Diem (morning-line odds, 1-1)
Despite being slightly washed out and agitated prior to the Tampa Bay Derby, this super-talented son of Giant’s Causeway won the Tampa Bay Derby going away. He already owns a Grade 1 win at Keeneland and a loss here would be a bit of a surprise.
CARPE DIEM WINNING TAMPA BAY DERBY
S V Photography
Santa Anita Park – Arcadia, Calif.
Race 8 – Santa Anita Derby (G1)
#5 Prospect Park (morning-line odds, 7-2)
Dortmund is scary good, but he’s pinned on the rail with speed drawn outside of him. Perhaps Santa Felipe Stakes runner-up Prospect Park can turn the tables. He didn’t have the cleanest run last out, but finished like a horse who still has more to give.