Handicapping, being an inexact science, often makes room for fresh concepts and new lines of thought. Behold the latest—the Appleby Angle.
It goes something like this: Key on two horses trained by Charlie Appleby for a Breeders' Cup race. Good ones, too. Both with a chance. No rabbits or vanity projects. Watch them load in stalls near each other, polite as can be, preferably in a mile race on the grass. No need to bet early because at some point one of the Applebys will throw a fit, necessitating a scratch and a delay of game while the opposition is backed out of the gate. Now, bet with both hands on the remaining Appleby, and go stand in cash line.
It would have worked like a charm in the Nov. 5 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1T), when Albahr became tangled in stall two and was scratched. Unfortunately, his Appleby barnmate, Modern Games , was immediately to his left and took Albahr's antics to heart. The resulting chaos—during which Modern Games was also scratched, unscratched, then ran and won for purse money only—will go down in Breeders' Cup history as the most embarrassing pari-mutuel chapter since the Pick Six Fix of 2002.
The angle worked like a charm Nov. 6 though, in the FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile Presented by PDJF (G1T). Appleby sent forth another handsome pair. Then Master of The Seas , a little guy with a big personality, got himself scratched from the inside post. Space Blues , the star of the traveling stable, was in post 2 and barely batted an eye. In fact, jockey William Buick suggested the fuss raised by Master of The Seas contributed to the winning performance of Space Blues, who went on to defeat Smooth Like Strait by a coolly measured half-length.
"He was a little quiet going to the gate," Buick said. "I think what happened woke him up a bit."
(It should be noted that the Appleby Angle was not deployed a little while later in the $4 million Longines Breeders' Cup Turf, G1T. Horseplayers were on their own to figure out that Yibir did not need a scratched stablemate to get the job done at 8-to-1 for Godolphin and the Appleby gang.)
Space Blues, a 5-year-old son of Dubawi bred and raced by Godolphin, had to be sharp enough early in the Mile to keep Smooth Like Strait in his sights. Umberto Rispoli had his consistent colt on the lead a few jumps from the start, then eased back on the throttle to clock the half in :47.38. It was at that point both Appleby and Buick stopped worrying about anything out the back.
"I was surprised we went as slow as we did," said Buick, who rode Space Blues in 11 of his 19 races. "It certainly helped. He settled well and was always in a good spot without having to do too much."
Michael McCarthy, who already had a win on the card with Ce Ce in the Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), refused to feel bad about the second-place effort of Smooth Like Strait.
"He tries so hard every time," the trainer said. "They let him go a little easy today, and it took one of the best horses in Europe to beat him."
It had been more than two years since Appleby had asked Space Blues to run as far as a mile. The trainer was quick to point out, however, that European miles are of sterner stuff than their flat, turning American cousins. Space Blues was coming off consecutive victories in testing seven-furlong events at York and Longchamp.
"To give you an idea of what we've always thought of him, though," Appleby noted, "I was training him at first with the Derby in mind."
That would be the Cazoo Derby (G1), Europe's greatest classic, at 1 1/2 miles. Instead, Space Blues retires now as a whiz at six to eight furlongs and a Breeders' Cup world championship on his résumé, along with the eternal gratitude of his jockey.
"I'll miss him," Buick said. "He was always a pleasure to ride. A great personality, and he didn't really need a jockey. With him, the rider could only mess things up."
The Mile's three-quarter split in 1:11.02 effectively neutralized the chances from anything attacking late. Ivar made the best run to finish a length behind Smooth Like Strait while Raging Bull , always dangerous on firm ground, was fourth, just ahead of the 6-year-old mare Got Stormy in her final race.
Of the other contenders, Coolmore's Mother Earth could make little impact from far back while course specialist Mo Forza put in a futile run before his rider surrendered and trailed home last of the 13 runners. Space Blues got the mile in 1:34.01 and paid $6.20 as the solid favorite.
Space Blues is a son of the group 2-winning Noverre mare Miss Lucifer, making him a half brother to the multiple graded stakes-winning Shuruq (Elusive Quality ). Shuruq is the dam of 2020 Saratoga Oaks Invitational and this year's The Very One Stakes (G3T) victress and multiple grade 1-placed Antoinette (Hard Spun ) as well as the graded stakes-placed Javanica (Medaglia d'Oro ).
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