Three-Day Median at Keeneland Up 28%

Any grumbling heard around the Keeneland sales grounds on day three of the 10-day November Breeding Stock Sale was largely among buyers struggling with intense competition, particularly for young mares bred to commercially appealing young sires.

"The mare market has been very strong and the weanling market continues with what we've seen," said Conrad Bandoroff with Denali Stud, who sold the day's highest-priced mare when the Unbridled's Song daughter J. Quirk  went to Breeze Easy for $725,000.

Granted, this mare had a phenomenal update when her 3-year-old daughter Lady Mystify  won the Remington Park Oaks (G3) Sept. 26. But even without such well-timed improvement in the family, Bandoroff said the market has been exceptionally competitive.

"I know trying to buy some mares for ourselves, we did the appraisals going in and have been blown out of the water. We have had to recalibrate our own valuations. There is great strength and depth to the market," he said.

The third session Nov. 12, which was the conclusion of Book 2, ended with gross sales of $38,134,000 from 242 sold, which produced a $157,579 average and a $140,000 median. Compared with the same session of 2020, gross sales were up 46%, the average rose 28%, and the median increased a robust 40%. The buy-back rate settled at a low 18.5%.

Cumulative results for the first three days (Books 1-2) show 598 horses sold for a gross of $127,902,000, which includes private sales. The average is $213,883 and the median is $160,000. The overall buy-back rate is 20.5%, including private sales. Compared with the first three days of 2020, gross sales are up 25%, the average is tracking 9% ahead, and the median is 28% higher. The comparable cumulative buy-back rate of 2020 was 28.5%.

"The median is really where we're focused," said Cormac Breathnach, Keeneland's director of sales operations. "Today was pretty spectacular from start to finish. The median was $140,000, and that is $40,000 more than last year and higher than even in 2019. We are pushing on from the banner years.

"Most people are selling, most are selling satisfactorily, and some are selling really well. It is just a real healthy market all the way through," Breathnach continued.

Tony Lacy, vice president of sales, said the strong returns bode well for the sale's later sessions but more importantly for the overall health of the Thoroughbred breeding market.

"The depth of the competition for the mares I find extremely encouraging," Lacy said. "As the foal crops are getting lighter, you are seeing professional, established breeders that are investing and getting determined for the future."

Breathnach and Lacy attributed the extraordinary robust auction market, both back during the Keeneland September Yearling Sale and this week, to a concentration of quality in the remaining bloodstock as the North American broodmare population has shrunk. Also driving the growth is an energy they see in the domestic racing product. Figures released from Equibase after October showed a 37% growth in purses paid this year to $988,391,517. While some of this is a bounce-back from a pandemic-ravaged year, the average purse per race day is up 11%, as well, to $279,998.

"The purses are good and there is energy around the sport," Breathnach said. "That fueled a lot of what we saw in September, but now it is giving breeders the encouragement and confident to jump back in and keep the cycle moving forward."

ELiTE had the strongest day Nov. 12, selling every horse it offered and having four of the top 10 highest-priced horses. Its best seller was the 5-year-old Le Havre mare Orglandes , who won Red Carpet Handicap (G3T) at Del Mar last year and the Zagora Stakes at Belmont Park  Nov. 7. The mare sold for $440,000 to Polo Green Stable, agent for Shimokobe Farm.

For the day, ELiTE was the leading consignor by average at $309,375 from eight sold that grossed $2,475,000.

"It was a great day for us, we got everything sold, a couple mares went for $400,000 in foal to Authentic," said Jake Memolo, client relations at ELiTE. "We found the market to be very strong for our horses. We are looking forward to bringing more horses forward in Book 3."

Andrew Warren was the leading buyer by gross with four bought for $1.2 million. Warren's most expensive purchase was the $430,000 mare Gale, a stakes-winning daughter of Tonalist  , who was in foal to leading second-crop sire Not This Time  .

The Nov. 13 session starts at 10 a.m. and the sale continues through Nov. 19.