Handicapping: Red Smith, Chilukki, and Native Diver

A relatively light stakes menu is on tap the weekend prior to Thanksgiving. Three graded stakes Saturday, Nov. 20, are scattered across the nation: The Red Smith Stakes (G2T) at Aqueduct Racetrack, the Chilukki Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs, and the Native Diver Stakes (G3) at Del Mar.

Red Smith (Aqu, race 9, 3:43 ET): This is the final graded turf stakes of the New York season for males. We're going with the K.I.S.S. system and would be happy to take Serve the King  (4) as a lukewarm favorite at 3-1 on the morning line.

Serve the King is a Chad Brown-trained horse in sharp form who is taking a class drop ... say no more!

What's more, this will only be the fifth start of the year for the 5-year-old by Kingman , so there's little fear of him being over the top after a runner-up finish in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (G1T) behind stablemate Rockemperor . Notably, four of the five horses that finished behind Serve the King in that race are grade 1 winners and the other is a grade 2 winner.

Serve the King is one of two in the lineup for Brown along with Value Engineering  (2), who makes his stakes debut after getting through second-level allowance conditions on the sixth attempt. Other than a lack of stakes experience, Value Engineering is admirably consistent, having finishing in the money in each of his 11 starts, plus he will stay the 1 3/8-mile trip.

Soldier Rising  (3) merits strong consideration. The lone 3-year-old in the race, Soldier Rising stretches back out to a more suitable distance after getting in gear too late in the Hill Prince Stakes (G2T). Two prior starts in the United States resulted in promising runner-up finishes, the first in the Saratoga Derby (G1T) behind State of Rest , who came back to win the $3.7 million Ladbrokes Cox Plate (G1T), and the second in the Jockey Club Derby behind Yibir , who then won the Longines Breeders' Cup Turf (G1T).

A - 4

B - 2, 3

Chilukki (CD, race 10, 5:36 ET): This one-turn mile for fillies and mares will be contested under the lights, and became appealing once Obligatory  (7) was identified as a vulnerable morning-line favorite.

Obligatory developed nicely through the spring, winning the Eight Belles Stakes Presented by Smithfield (G2) and running second in the Acorn Stakes (G1). However, her form has been spotty through the second half of the year and now she faces older for the first time.

Matera  (3) attempts to get a graded stakes triumph under her belt in the final start of her career. That would substantially enhance her value, since she's a half sister to three stakes winners, including Liam's Map   and Not This Time  . The daughter of Tapit   has been pointed to this since a two-move running line in the Locust Grove Stakes (G3), and switches back to Florent Geroux, who was aboard for three straight wins after she was given over to Brad Cox.

Miss Bigly  (4) got snatched up on the far turn of the Zenyatta Stakes (G2) last out, and cuts back to a mile, where she has won five out of six. The lone defeat was a third to Monomoy Girl  in the slop.

She Can't Sing  (1) and Princess Causeway  (8) are the backups. She Can't Sing was a seven-length maiden winner on this track in October 2019 and posted her two best Beyer Speed Figures of 2020 here. She reaffirmed her fondness for this surface beating third-level allowance optional company seven weeks ago. Princess Causeway cuts back off a turf route at Keeneland, a form pattern that spurred a win here at the 2019 fall meet.

A - 3, 4

B - 1, 8

Native Diver (Dmr, race 8, 7:00 ET): This 1 1/8-mile route is so wide open that all eight entrants are single-digit odds on the morning line. Bob Baffert sends out the trio of Azul Coast  (5), Eight Rings  (6), and Ax Man  (7), who all figure to attract support. So will Midcourt  (2), who won this race by nearly six lengths in 2019 and finished second last year as the 2-5 choice.

Midcourt returned from six months off for a big-figure allowance win in June, but was then absent again until the Oct. 2 Awesome Again Stakes (G1) and was eased through the final stages. So was Azul Coast, and the common thread for both was that the Awesome Again was the first time they ran without Lasix.

Lasix off could also be a factor with Established  (1) and/or Bal Harbour  (4), who have never run without it. Furthermore, Kiss Today Goodbye  (8), who won the San Antonio Stakes (G2) last December, has been far back in three starts sans Lasix in 2021.

The three horses who have won or run well without Lasix are:

• Wicked Trick  (3), who ran a lifetime top Beyer finishing second in the Westchester Stakes (G3) earlier this year.
• Eight Rings, who won a second-level allowance optional race before running fourth in the Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1).
• Ax Man, who wired the Santana Mile back in March. If nothing else, he projects to keep Established occupied early.

A - 3, 6

B - 7