Lessons Learned from Last Weekend’s Prep Races

Frosted ran the race of his life in the Wood Memorial. (Photo by NYRA/Dave Alcosser) 
Saturday was an exciting day of racing around the country with three big Kentucky Derby prep races going on, each awarding 100 points to the winning connections. With only one more weekend of prep races (hands up if you’re watching the Arkansas Derby or the Lexington Stakes!), Derby fever is certainly in full swing. You can be sure that seasoned handicappers and novices alike will be hard at work until the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby.
I was lucky enough to be the trophy presenter in the winner’s circle at Aqueduct Racetrack for the Grade 2 Gazelle, a stakes race for 3-year-old fillies, giving Kentucky Oaks points to the horses in the money. Condo Commando was all business and was quite impressive as she crossed the finish line ahead of Puca to take the Gazelle. The weather cooperated for the 12-race card and fans had a chance to take home free Twinspires.com baseball caps with the purchase of a printed publication or voucher, and Aqueduct also provided a selection of food trucks. Obviously the Big A was pulling out all the stops.
CONDO COMMANDO BEING LED INTO THE GAZELLE WINNER'S CIRCLE

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
Side note: if you would ever like to find out how animals in a zoo feel, just wear a crown and put on a sash that says “Miss Connecticut” at Aqueduct. It’s kind of like an out-of-body experience. Definitely kept me laughing for the whole day!
In addition to the Gazelle, Aqueduct was also the location of the Wood Memorial, a race that I listed as one of my favorites in a past blog. With just seven horses running and some very low odds on a few of them, the Wood was a highly anticipated and exciting race.
Also happening that day in California at Santa Anita, was the Santa Anita Derby, another one of my favorite prep races. Let’s not forget that this is the race that California Chrome won last year. Do we see any similarities with another big chestnut Santa Anita Derby winner in 2015?
Finally, in Kentucky at Keeneland, there was the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes. I have never seen so much cheering at a table in the Equestris restaurant at Aqueduct, or arguing over the pronunciation of a name (except maybe for my own …), as when Carpe Diem lived up to expectations and won the Bluegrass.
Here’s a quick rundown of the three biggest races this weekend, and some things to remember about them as we move forward:
Grade 1 Wood Memorial
Frosted outran New York-bred Tencendur, and the very hyped El Kabeir and Daredevil finished third and fourth, respectively. Frosted, trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, had not won a race since breaking his maiden on October 30, and this means that both of his wins out of seven starts have been at Aqueduct. Prior to the Wood, Frosted went through a procedure known as “Llewellyn,” meant to fix the displacement of the soft palate that can be caused by inflammation in the horse’s throat. He also experienced a rider change, with Joel Rosario up this time around. Clearly all of these changes came together in Frosted’s favor. Now ranking fourth on the Derby points leaderboard with 113 points, Frosted will head to Kentucky, providing nothing else changes between now and then.
I think the biggest question remains as to whether he will get lost in the shuffle in Kentucky – in the Wood, which was run at a pretty easy, slow pace, Frosted was near the back of the pack early on and went wide around the outside on both turns. He had enough left in the tank to close and overtake the leader, Tencendur, to win by two lengths, but in a 20-horse field like he will find at Churchill Downs, getting a good spot early and being able to navigate through a stacked wall of horses will be key. Even Larry Collmus, now calling the races for NYRA, said that Frosted was “running the race of his life.”
El Kabeir did rally and finish third, coming from dead last. He did a similar thing in the Gotham, coming from the back and pushing by all the other horses, although that time he won. But I don’t think it’s time to completely discredit him yet. He has shown versatility by winning both on the lead and from the back of the pack and you never know the kind of damage a good closer can do.
Grade 1 Toyota Bluegrass Stakes

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
The 2-5 favorite Carpe Diem, trained by Todd Pletcher, captured the Bluegrass with little trouble. The horse seems to love the track at Keeneland, and now has two Grade 1 stakes wins at the track with a grand total of four wins in his five starts and his only loss being a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Now third on the Road to the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard going into the Kentucky Derby, Carpe Diem is a very consistent horse, and, in my opinion, consistency will be a big factor in this Derby. Physically, Carpe Diem has great confirmation and looked strong at the 1 1/8 mile distance.
Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
The Santa Anita Derby was won to the surprise of few by Dortmund, the horse often referred to as a beast. People are already hailing him the next Kentucky Derby winner, and even some are going so far as to say he’ll take the entire Triple Crown. As much as I like the horse and have been impressed with him thus far, I’m not so sure just yet. To me, Firing Line is the only real contender that Dortmund has faced, and he has been second to Dortmund in both the Robert B. Lewis Stakes and the Los Alamitos Futurity. However, in each of these races, Dortmund had to work hard to cross the finish line before Firing Line, and the two horses finished close together in both races. Firing Line is currently 11th on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard, and Dortmund is second.
With his impressive size and Bob Baffert as his trainer, it’s easy to get behind Dortmund. He looked like he was going through an easy morning workout as he blew away the rest of the field in the Santa Anita Derby, and I’ll be interested to see how he shapes up as we get closer to the Derby.