Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

Frosted rebounded to elite form in the $1-million Wood Memorial Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Derby chances are not quite as strong as they were one week ago. DISCLAIMER: Dortmund was, to me, by far the most impressive winner of the weekend in the Santa Anita Derby, but he was already No. 1 on my list, so he had no room to improve position. Likewise, Carpe Diem handle business in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes and confirmed his spot in my top 5, staying at No. 4 overall. Since neither horse made a jump in the ranking, I focused on other contenders this week.
Heating Up

1. Frosted  

Eclipse Sportswire

Count me in the camp that was not especially high on Frosted entering the Twinspires.com Wood Memorial Stakes on Saturday. I liked his runner-up finish in the 2014 Remsen Stakes enough, but I just thought he was never going to become what we’d hoped he might after a distant second in the Grade 2 Holy Bull Stakes in his season debut and a fourth-place finish after setting the pace in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Following the Wood Memorial win, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin admitted Frosted was a heck of a project to make the most of his talent. He had surgery to correct breathing issue and McLaughlin adjusted his equipment and changed jockeys to Joel Rosario. “We know he has a ton of ability and the last race really made us scratch our heads, asking ‘why?’ ” McLaughlin said. “He would go to the lead and throw his head up and stop. We did everything we could to change everything we possibly could that we thought went wrong, including the jockey just because we were changing everything.” The changes worked and Frosted, by top sire Tapit,  won the Wood by two lengths and equaled his career-best Equibase Speed Figure with a 102. His dam (mother) is 2003 Cotillion Stakes winner Fast Cookie, a half-sister (same dam, different sire [father]) to champion Midshipman. Frosted’s Derby ticket is punched, he has some pedigree to get excited about and he’s headed in the right direction.

2. Danzig Moon 

Bob Coglianese/Gulfstream Park 

Danzig Moon disappointed when fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby but he rewarded those who stuck with him (not me, by the way) in the Blue Grass Stakes when he finished second by three lengths at 15.70-to-1 odds to highly regarded Derby hopeful Carpe Diem. Tampa Bay Downs can be a tricky dirt track, so you could make a case to just toss the Tampa Bay Derby out. I do have concerns about Danzig Moon’s 105 Equibase Speed Figure for the Blue Grass Stakes, which represents a new 10-point top for him. Sometimes horses regress off of a huge effort and sometimes, when maturing at this time of year, a 3-year-old might be able to duplicate or even better the performance. A duplicate effort is far more likely in this case but I think Danzig Moon would need to take another step forward to win the Kentucky Derby. It does look like there will be plenty of speed in the Derby, so perhaps Danzig Moon could relax off the pace and make a big run to finish on the board. Danzig Moon is out of the Danzig mare Leavminthedust, a full sister (same dam [mother], same sire [father]) to Grade 3 winner Defer and a half-sister (same dam, different sire) to graded stakes winners Reload and Philanthropist. By Malibu Moon, Danzig Moon also is from the family of champions Inside Information and Smuggler, so there is plenty to like in this pedigree.

3. One Lucky Dane 

Eclipse Sportswire

After posting a career-best 114 Equibase Speed Figure in a one-mile race in his previous start, which is right there with the best 3-year-olds this season, One Lucky Dane finished second in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby for his first graded stakes placing and enough points to secure a spot in the field for the Kentucky Derby. Not bad for a colt without a stakes win to his credit. The Santa Anita Derby was, from a speed figure perspective (102), a step in the wrong direction for One Lucky Dane. But … you have to have a ticket to the dance to get in, and that he does. The good news is he has three triple-digit speed figures in four races on dirt for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. By 2010 Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky, One Lucky Dane gets some stamina from his sire. The bottom half of this pedigree, specifically in the first two generations, slants heavily toward speed. Given he was much faster at a mile than in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby, I worry about distance limitations with One Lucky Dane.

Cooling Off

1. El Kabeir

Eclipse Sportswire

El Kabeir laid an egg in the Wood Memorial Stakess on Saturday in a race many expected him to win. In fact, I thought he’d win easily and enter the Kentucky Derby as one of the top five betting favorites. The key for me was he really seemed to be moving in the right direction prior to the Wood, posting a first, second and first in three previous starts this year that resulted in 97, 100 and 105 Equibase Speed Figures. That type of steady progression led me to believe he was ready to take another step forward and enter the Kentucky Derby. Instead, he finished third, beaten by 5 ¾ lengths, and now enters the Kentucky Derby as more of a question than an answer. I had some doubts that he wants to go 1 ¼ miles and the Wood didn’t do anything to ease my concerns.

2. Daredevil  

Eclipse Sportswire 

Daredevil was electric in winning the Champagne Stakes at two on a sloppy track, but came up empty when 11th, beaten by 26 ¼ lengths, in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 2.60-to-1 odds. His 3-year-old debut offered promise when he finished second sprinting in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes and earned a 110 Equibase Speed Figure, and Daredevil went off as the 2-to-1 favorite in the Wood Memorial. Stretching back out in distance to 1 1/8 miles, Daredevil faded badly late in the Wood and finished fourth, beaten by 12 lengths. With 20 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, Daredevil currently is on the outside looking in for the big dance. At this point, his connections appear to be looking at other options for Daredevil's next start. It probably is for the best, too, because it’s really tough to expect a horse to run the race of his life against 19 other horses in front of 150,000 fans off a poor performance. 

3. Prospect Park 

Eclipse Sportswire

Prospect Park was the hype horse heading into the Santa Anita Derby and for good reason following a big-time performance in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. The Tapit colt closed for second, 2 ¼ lengths behind top Kentucky Derby contender Dortmund, in the San Felipe and was awarded a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure. That marked a nice progression following a pair of victories and it appeared as though this colt was really getting good at the perfect time. Even I bought into the hype, listing Prospect Park just outside my top 10 despite the fact that he had nary a stakes win to his credit. Dortmund again was the star of the show in the Santa Anita Derby to improve to 6-for-6, but Prospect Park could do no better than fourth, also finishing behind One Lucky Dane and Bolo. Prospect Park did find some traffic trouble in the Santa Anita Derby, which can be crushing for a closer, so I’m not willing to write him off completely. But he currently is on the outside of the top 20 looking in on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard with a couple of prep races left. He would rate a chance to close for a minor share at a big price in the Kentucky Derby, but he needs to get in first. Stay tuned. 

CURRY'S DERBY TOP 10

1. Dortmund  2. American Pharoah 3. Firing Line 4. Carpe Diem  5. Materiality 6. International Star  7. Far Right  8. Mubtaahij 9.  Upstart 10. Frosted
Four on the bubble: One Lucky Dane, Stanford, Danzig Moon, Bolo

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.