Bram’s Take: Banking on a Pharoah in Arkansas
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American Pharoah splashed to a victory in the Rebel Stakes on March 14 at Oaklawn Park. (Coady Photography)
There is a moment during every Passover Sedar where the door is opened to welcome the prophet Elijah. Mystically speaking, he is known as some form of wonder worker, renowned for understanding how to solve crucial legal issues.
Clearly, no one walks in when you open the door for him, except for this one time when a weird cousin of mine showed up late for the Sedar and we all got really freaked out that he might be some kind of mythological creature.
This is Judaism's answer to Santa because, come on, how could either be at everyone's house at the same time. At least Elijah gets wine and not milk and cookies. Anyway, he supposedly enters, drinks from a specifically reserved glass of wine and is there to celebrate future redemption. If you watch the glass closely, you'll trick yourself into believing a sip was actually taken and it’ll freak you out.
The idea of future redemption is what got me thinking about Elijah. Actually, it was a horse named American Pharoah, who is a win away from looking for the ultimate redemption — a shot at the Kentucky Derby and very likely the early favorite. And by the way, he doesn't need you to open the door for him, his past suggests he busts the door open, grabs all the wine and splits town before anyone realized what happened.
Here’s the field for the Arkansas Derby:
1. The Truth Or Else — Do you want to know the truth or else? Lets start with the truth: Huge stakes race background and two previous races on this track with the master Calvin Borel. Another truth is assuming a fast track on Saturday, we’re not sure how he’ll perform considering his bad luck with the weather in those two previous Oaklawn races. Now, the or else: Go back to last fall, see him on nice track conditions and, well, there isn’t much to say. Will he be there in the end? I don't know if that’s the truth or else.
2. Mr. Z — You tell me what happened in his last race because I don’t know. And everyone has had a turn riding him like he’s on some super-powered carousel. At 10-1 on the morning line, I kind of like him in exotics. Thanks to the Pharoah, I assume he doesn't win.
3. Bridget’s Big Luvy — Here’s my name-hate entry of the week. Wire to wire in his last run in the mud, and it wasn't a discount race. But in his last three when track conditions were good or fast, he’s been blown out. Nah.
4. Madefromlucky — Faced the Pahroah in the Rebel Stakes and got blasted. Race before, he won as a super-heavy favorite after racing just off a slow pace. The Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez combo makes him a 6-1 shot who probably will be bet down, but my guess is this horse is just not good enough.
5. Bold Conquest — When he lays way back off the pace, he makes solid stretch runs but doesn’t win. When he stays with the front-runners, he fades in the stretch. Pick your poison, but it’s poison all the same.
6. American Pharoah — I just told a story about my weird cousin and his role in Passover history. Clearly, I'm enamored. Who isn't? He's got the Cali Chrome gene- pure rocket fuel.
7. Far Right — Clearly, Mike Smith won't let him run early with American Pharoah, it wasn't his modus operandi in his two races on him or his general race game plan. And clearly, he can win if Pharoah is off his game. IF. One of these days, jockey Victor Espinoza is going to push that button and Pharoah won't be able to hit go. If this is the day, Far Right wins. If it isn't, good night.
FAR RIGHT WINNING SOUTHWEST STAKES
Coady Photography
8. Win the Space — He can win the space at the back of the pack. Actually, I think he’s better then the 30-1 odds he got tagged with, and because of it I'd put him in exotics, but unless he’s about to do something in his third race that he didn't do in races one or two, no chance to actually win.
The Pick — American Pharoah. ... I love dominance. Tiger, MJ, Brady and last year, California Chrome. I want that horse in the Kentucky Derby field that looks too good to be true, and he either proves everyone right or has his most unfortunate off day. Me and Elijah are taking American Pharoah and assuming we'll be drinking the expensive wine at the end of the day.
$1-million Arkansas DerbySaturday, Oaklawn Park, Race 11, 7:18 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Morning Line
1
The Truth Or Else
Calvin Borel
Kenny McPeek
Harold Lerner
15-1
2
Mr. Z
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
10-1
3
Bridget's Big Luvy
Angel Cruz
Jeremiah Englehart
Tom O’Grady
20-1
4
Madefromlucky
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
Cheyenne Stables & Mac Nichol
6-1
5
Bold Conquest
Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Steve Asmussen
Ackerley Brothers Farm
20-1
6
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
1-2
7
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
Harry T. Rosenblum & Robert V. LaPenta
9-2
8
Win the Space
Kent Desormeaux
George Papaprodromou
Kretz Racing
30-1
The Coolmore Lexington Stakes
1. Divining Rod — I Googled this to see what it meant. It's a scientific apparatus used to find things like water, ore and gems. That’s a really freaking strange thing to name a horse after. And maybe that’s why two races ago he was dismissed as a major and relative long shot. Both times he showed up on the board and is 4-for-with top-three finishes. This isn't a strong field so I guess he can win, but 3-1 seems a little much now right.
2. Comfort — His times weren't exactly knock your socks off, but there is an upgrade here in trainer and jockey. So what does Pletcher know about this one that we don’t? I smell a value pick.
3. Quimet — This one certainly looks beyond unpromising. Losing by 36 1/2 after losing by 16 ¾ lengths will do that. So, uh, let’s move on.
4. Tiznow R J — Ran in three stakes races, and the last two were awful. So, I have no clue how he is 5-1 coming in. Are we really hanging onto a $39,000 maiden race back in December that, yes, he won by more than 13 lengths, as the reason for optimism? In the race prior to that win as a heavy favorite he was a huge dud. I'm out.
5. Henry Jones — He’s a good, ole chap who’ll run, according to his peeps, every 10 days. I don't like turnarounds like that in races like this. Couple that with the distance not seeming like his strong suit. Plus, he hasn’t run in a stakes race, but I don’t know how much of an upgrade in class this is based on the fact that the majority of the runners haven’t run in a stakes race either. He’s intriguing but the quick turnaround is a tough sell.
6. Fame and Power — Best name of the day. Clearly, he turned a huge corner in his last go, albeit in a $56,000 maiden race. Great speed and, honestly, it’s a good as you can ask. I sure would like to see regular rider Martin Garcia on him and not Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time, which does bother me. But considering the weakness of the field, I'm not saying no.
7. Donworth — One freaking race. That’s all I have to go on. He won it, as a favorite but it’s one freaking race. I can’t take him seriously, and I can’t dismiss him either. I hate these types of conundrums. Incomplete and I give up.
The Pick — Good Lord, it’s a crapshoot. Where’s the dartboard? Because I have to pick someone, I'll reluctantly take Fame and Power, but I’m hedging it with a move on Comfort, too, hoping he still has some value when the race goes off.
Good Luck and God Bless American Pharoah.
$250,000 Coolmore Lexington StakesSaturday, Keeneland Race Course, Race 10, 5:18 p.m. ET1 1/16 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
M-L
1
Divining Rod
Julien Leparoux
Arnaud Delacour
Lael Stables
3-1
2
Comfort
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners
5-1
3
Quimet
Jose Lezcano
Nick Zito
Lucky Shamrock Stable
8-1
4
Tiznow R J
Robby Albarado
Steve Asmussen
Mike McCarty
5-1
5
Henry Jones
Paco Lopez
D. Wayne Lukas
Holy Cow Stable
6-1
6
Fame and Power
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Bob Baffert
Juddmonte Farms
5-2
7
Donworth
Joel Rosario
Graham Motion
Regis Racing
5-1
WATCH THE LEXINGTON STAKES ON FOX SPORTS 1, BEGINNING AT 4:30 p.m. ET ON SATURDAY