Making Money Betting American Pharoah in Arkansas Derby
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American Pharoah was dominant in the Rebel Stakes and looks like a very deserving favorite in the Arkansas Derby on Saturday at Oaklawn Park. (Coady Photography)
We’re into the final stretch of Kentucky Derby prep races with the Grade 1, $1-million Arkansas Derby being the last with significant points (100-40-20-10, respectively) awarded before the run for the roses.
Spring is in the air, and most people I know, including myself, are suffering from Derby fever as we all eagerly looking forward to the first Saturday in May.
This only intrigue with this race is seemingly the battle for place and show. With three straight Beyer Speed Figures over the 100 mark and entering off a 6 1/4 -length romp in his last race, the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes (despite bobbling to the left and throwing a shoe in his first race off a 6-month layoff), American Pharoah heads into the Arkansas Derby as the prohibitive favorite.
The Arkansas Derby is his race to lose. He’s been working incredibly well and all eyes will be on him. Under the direction of last year’s Kentucky Derby-winning jockey, Victor Espinoza, the 2014 champion 2-year-old male is currently a leading Kentucky Derby contender as well. I think he could bounce (regress off of a strong performance) here and still win this race with ease. With an Arkansas Derby win, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert would hold the dominant hand heading into the Derby with champion American Pharoah and undefeated stablemate Dortmund.
Morning-line second choice Far Right, winner of this year’s Smarty Jones and Southwest Stakes, is the only other horse other than American Pharoah to have success at Oaklawn this spring. With Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith aboard for his third straight mount he should be “all right.”
FAR RIGHT WINNING SMARTY JONES STAKES
Coady Photography
Madefromlucky was second to American Pharoah last time in the slop in the Rebel. He could improve on a fast track for the top combination of jockey John Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher.
The longshot pick, and most eligible to improve, is Bold Conquest. His third race off the layoff might be the charm, with the last two coming in the slop. He’s in capable hands with current leading North American trainer by wins, Steve Asmussen, who recently picked up his 7,000th career win). May make his presence felt at a price here.
My $20 Bet — $5 straight trifectas
American Pharoah with Madefromlucky, Far Right with Bold Conquest (6 with 4,7 with 5) = $10
American Pharoah with Bold Conquest with Madefromlucky, Far Right (6 with 5 with 4,7) = $10
$1-million Arkansas DerbySaturday, Oaklawn Park, Race 11, 7:18 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-olds
PP
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Morning Line
1
The Truth Or Else
Calvin Borel
Kenny McPeek
Harold Lerner
15-1
2
Mr. Z
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
10-1
3
Bridget's Big Luvy
Angel Cruz
Jeremiah Englehart
Tom O’Grady
20-1
4
Madefromlucky
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
Cheyenne Stables & Mac Nichol
6-1
5
Bold Conquest
Ricardo Santana, Jr.
Steve Asmussen
Ackerley Brothers Farm
20-1
6
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
1-2
7
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
Harry T. Rosenblum & Robert V. LaPenta
9-2
8
Win the Space
Kent Desormeaux
George Papaprodromou
Kretz Racing
30-1