Handicapping: Newly Turned 3-Year-Olds in Stakes Action

New Year's Day is the universal birthday for Thoroughbreds, so it's certainly fitting that there are one-mile stakes races across the nation for newly-turned 3-year-olds Saturday.

The 152nd edition of the Jerome at Aqueduct Racetrack gets the party started, followed in order by the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park, the Smarty Jones Stakes from Oaklawn Park, and the Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park. The Jerome and Mucho Macho Man are one-turn events that begin out of a chute, while the Smarty Jones and Sham are two-turn races where getting decent early position is crucial.

The Mucho Macho Man is the last of five stakes for 3-year-olds at Gulfstream. The Sham is among four graded stakes at Santa Anita.

Handicapping early-season races for 3-year-olds can be quite challenging because we're dealing with lightly-raced runners who have yet to establish clear preferences for surface, distance, and running style. Nowadays, we must also wrestle with the on-Lasix/off-Lasix issue, since some tracks allow the use of the anti-bleeding medication by 2-year-olds and some do not. Several prominent contenders in the Smarty Jones, for example, emerge from impressive victories on Lasix but will not have it Saturday.

Jerome (Aqu, race 8, 3:50 ET): Cooke Creek  (1) will be favored off a promising three-race sequence to begin his career—a couple of wins at Delaware Park, followed by a runner-up finish in the Nashua Stakes (G3) to favored Rockefeller , the morning-line choice in the Sham later on.

Cooke Creek's off-the-pace style should be set up nicely due to the presence of Smarten Up  (5), Courvoisier  (6), and Hagler  (8), who were on or near the early lead in their last-out victories.

The race flow should also be favorable to Ohtwoohthreefive  (3) and Mr Jefferson  (7).

Ohtwoohthreefive has shown some ability in six turf races, so it's worth noting that his sire Union Rags   is much more effective with his dirt runners. Moreover, trainer George Weaver excels with this surface switch.

Mr Jefferson was off slow, found himself behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch, and rallied up the rail to win with something left when blinkers were added at Laurel Park. He drops out of a four-wide trip behind a glacially slow pace in the Remsen Stakes (G2).

A - 1

B - 3, 7

Mucho Macho Man (GP, race 10, 4:42 ET): There's no shortage of pace in this field of six, with Sport Pepper  (1), Simplification  (3), Mr Rum Runner  (4), and Skippylongstocking  (5) all having the potential to be involved early. Simplification ran a hole in the wind beating maidens by almost 17 lengths Oct. 23 but regressed sharply three weeks later fading to third at odds of 3-10.

The pace dynamics work to the advantage of Strike Hard  (2) and Graphic Detail  (6), who figure to vie for favoritism.

Strike Hard added blinkers for a Dec. 5 allowance optional claiming win over the course and trip, in which he unleashed a big run around the turn to take over. His only loss from three outings at a mile was a second to White Abarrio , subsequently third in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2).

Graphic Detail concedes experience after getting a good setup to wear down dueling leaders in his six-furlong bow at Belmont Park. The Bill Mott-trained colt will likely be overbet.

A - 2

B - 6

Smarty Jones (OP, race 9, 5:13 ET): This race drew a field of 14—as many as the Jerome and Mucho Macho Man combined—and is rife with possibilities.

Taking the worst of the draw was Ben Diesel  (14), who is marooned on the far outside after forcing the pace in the Kentucky Jockey Club and fading to fourth.

We're going to key on All in Sync  (2), who is among three Steve Asmussen-trained runners in the mix, and Barber Road  (10).

All in Synch outdueled two rivals up front and saved the place in a promising debut at Keeneland, then rated from just off the pace for a maiden win in the slop at Churchill Downs with an improved speed figure. While some may shy away due to a perceived sprint pedigree, his sire Maclean's Music   is nearly as effective with dirt routers (16% winners) as with dirt sprinters (18%) through a large sample of runners.

Barber Road added blinkers for back-to-back wins by open lengths in early, fall, followed by a sharp second in the Lively Shively Stakes to Tejano Twist , runner-up lats week in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner Stakes at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots. Barber Road gets a switch back to Reylu Gutierrez, who racked up five stakes wins at Fair Grounds Dec. 26-27.

The B team consists of Home Brew  (3) and Vivar  (8), both trained by Brad Cox.

Home Brew got away with a soft pace wiring softer company first time with the bold-face "L" on Dec. 4, and he will not have it Saturday.

Vivar could fall through the cracks and offer some value. He has already won route races on turf and dirt and beat half the field in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Among his three local workouts is a five-furlong bullet Dec. 19.

A - 2, 10

B - 3, 8

C - 14

Sham (SA, race 7, 6:05 ET): It's the Bob Baffert-trained duo of Nashua winner Rockefeller (4) and debut maiden winner Newgrange  (3) against three opponents. The race is in the midst of a late pick five that begins with the Joe Hernandez Stakes (G2T) and goes through the Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3T) and the La Canada Stakes (G3), so many multi-race bettors may try to get by using just those two.

It's kind of interesting, though, that both Baffert horses have early speed. Newgrange may be quicker than his stablemate as he stretches out from six furlongs. Rockefeller's only defeat from three starts came when he chased Baffert's presumed champion Corniche  in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) and weakened to wind up fourth. Both wins came when able to control the pace.

Maybe the barn buddies hook up at some point? If so, Oviatt Class  (2) could come rolling at a square ticket. The late-running son of Bernardini  hasn't done himself any favors with a series of slow getaways, the latest occurring in the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented By Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1) when he was tardy from the gate and checked into the far turn. That was a much larger field, however, and traffic should be less of an issue.

A - 2

B - 3, 4