Handicapping: Battle Station, W W Fitzy Appeal at 8-1

The post-holiday menu is rather light Jan. 8. Six stakes are scattered around the country, and only the Santa Ynez Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park and the Tropical Turf Stakes (G3T) at Gulfstream Park boast graded status.

Short fields are a common theme. The $100,000 Turfway Preview Stakes drew a field of nine 3-year-old sprinters, but the other five all go with fields of six or seven.

As is often the case when winter settles in, weather and track conditions could be a factor for the $100,000 Say Florida Sandy Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack, where the Jan. 7 program was canceled due to snow. 

Moreover, there is rain in the forecast at Gulfstream, where the 44th edition of the Tropical Turf is in the midst of a Rainbow 6 forceout that begins and ends with two other races scheduled for the grass. There hasn't been a singular winning ticket of the jackpot bet since Dec. 11, resulting in a carryover pool of $921,693 after the Jan. 6 card. Officials are anticipating a multi-million dollar pool assuming no unique winning wager Friday.

What's more, there is a 90% chance of rain for the $150,000 Pippin Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Short fields or not, come rain or shine, there are some intriguing price chances through the afternoon to be discussed here, in chronological order. All times ET.

Tropical Turf (GP, race 8, 3:37): Most Rainbow tickets are going to focus on the two clear favorites, Largent  (1) and Value Proposition  (4).

It has been almost a year since Largent lost a hard-fought stretch duel to stablemate Colonel Liam  in the 2021 Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1T), an effort that was preceded by a rallying 16-1 upset of the Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (G2T). The 6-year-old son of Into Mischief   has never been worse than second from 10 starts for Todd Pletcher, including a record of 4-2-0 from six outings over the local course, and several of those were delivered off workouts. Largent won't be fully cranked here, but one of his typical solid performances could propel him into the Pegasus Turf once again.

The Chad Brown-trained Value Proposition won minor stakes back to back late last year, before closing out the season with a fifth in the Aqueduct Turf Sprint Championship at a distance that was too short for him.

Clear Vision  (2) and Flying Scotsman  (5) have some bust-out potential for bigger-budget plays. The former was claimed three times during the second half of 2021, and the 6-year-old son of Artie Schiller  enters off the fastest three-race sequence of his career. Flying Scotsman had his comeback race switched to the synthetic track Dec. 19, and he chased a fast pace for six furlongs before tiring. After running fifth in this event last winter off the bench, he wired a high-end optional claimer at 15-1 this course and distance, so there is precedent for a move-up second time back.

A - 1, 4

B - 2, 5

Say Florida Sandy (Aqu, race 8, 3:50): This seven-furlong race for New York-breds features a rematch between Lobsta  (4) and My Boy Tate  (5), who will take the bulk of the play after running one-two in the Thunder Rumble division of the New York Stallion Series Dec. 5. Lobsta was 24-1 and was getting six pounds from 3-2 favorite My Boy Tate that day, and uncorked the fastest race of his life—by many lengths—to eke out a half-length decision. Lobsta looks like a bounce candidate meeting up with My Boy Tate at level weights this time, whereas that was a far more typical effort for the latter, an 8-year-old warrior who won the Hollie Hughes and Haynesfield at the Big A last winter.

At anything close to his 8-1 morning-line quote, though, I'm quite interested in Battle Station  (3) as a win wager and keyed to the favorites in exactas.

Battle Station has run 42 times, including a win in the Bertram F. Bongard Stakes at this distance as a juvenile in 2017. He also won a sloppy renewal of the Rego Park Stakes during the winter of 2018 at Aqueduct, but for whatever reason, all 36 of his subsequent starts have been against open company.

The majority of those have been on turf, the most recent a pacesetting try against Value Proposition in the Oct. 29 Oyster Bay at Belmont Park. He went back to dirt for his last two starts of 2021: a come-again victory at Laurel Park and a very wide trip finishing fifth in a 14-horse Blitzen Stakes at Parx Racing. I like the switch back to hot-riding Kendrick Carmouche, who has been aboard for four of the gelding's wins.

A - 3

B - 4, 5

Pippin (OP, race 8, 4:46): The three logical favorites are Coach  (1), Josie  (5), and Miss Bigly  (6), who have all won over sealed wet tracks at Oaklawn.

Coach drew most favorably of the three and looked good Dec. 17 winning first time out since running ninth in the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1), thereby improving to three wins from as many starts on Lasix.

W W Fitzy  (3) has also ran well in the mud here. She goes first off a claim by Robertino Diodoro and gets a potentially significant equipment change as blinkers come on again. Seven of her nine wins have come wearing the hood, and Diodoro has exceptionally strong stats (30% wins) with blinkers on. She went along behind horses when haltered Dec. 17, showed some belated interest, and galloped out strongly. Look for a return to more aggressive early-pace tactics for the new barn.

A - 3

B - 1, 5, 6

Santa Ynez (SA, race 8, 7:06): Big Switch  (3) beat fellow California-breds in two starts at Del Mar at age 2, but the imposingly-sized daughter of Mr. Big looked exceptional each time. She overcame bumping at the start and in upper stretch to win her debut under confident handling Aug. 20, and then returned during Breeders' Cup week to win the Golden State Juvenile Fillies as much the best. That gives her the advantage of winning experience at Saturday's seven furlongs.

Under the Stars  (1), Awake At Midnyte  (5), and Miss Mattie B  (6) will give Big Switch her sternest test yet.

Under the Stars, a Bob Baffert-trained half sister to Bodemeister  , overcame a five-wide trip to graduate decisively third time out.

Awake At Midnyte beat Under the Starts when they were unveiled Oct. 31, then just missed by a nose when moved to turf in the Jimmy Durante (G3T).

Miss Mattie B also makes the turf-to-dirt switch, after coming from well off the pace for a maiden win with blinkers removed. Both siblings have won on dirt, including full sister Allworthy , who is graded stakes-placed.

A - 3

B - 1, 5, 6