Cautious Outlook Ahead of Magic Millions Sale

This time last year leading industry figure John Messara was upbeat about the prospects of a buoyant market at the Magic Millions Yearling Sale, a prediction which came to fruition, but this year the Arrowfield principal is more cautious in his outlook ahead of the 2022 season-opening auction.

The first of seven straight days of selling will get under way on the Gold Coast Jan. 11 and, while the atmosphere in the lead-up to the important Australian Thoroughbred sale has been more subdued than in past years, the vast majority of the professional buying bench has been on site and appear ready to do business.

The shortened day-one session, comprising 180 lots, features colts by leading sires such as I Am Invincible , Snitzel , and Deep Field, as well as topline fillies by the likes of Zoustar, Fastnet Rock , and Justify   that will quickly help set the market trend, which is expected to be far from downcast.

Messara said with much conviction last year about his beliefs of how the market was about to trend at the Gold Coast sale, and for the remainder of the sales series, but on Monday he was far more apprehensive about making any bold predictions with any level of certainty.

"It is so hard to say because I am finding out, as the days progress, that quite a number of players have contracted the (Covid-190 disease or are frightened of contracting the disease and they are not coming (to the sale)," Messara told ANZ Bloodstock News.

"They might still buy through agents or remotely online, but I am just a little concerned because of the velocity of the pandemic now, that people are saying to themselves, 'You know what, I just think I'll stay home, I don't think I'll go there'.

"I don't know what impact that will have because people have got used to bidding online and using agents."

Vinery Stud general manager Peter Orton agreed that while a cohort of players are not on the ground for this year's sale, he expects bidding from all corners of the auditorium floor and from online throughout the sale, with racing's key fundamentals, particularly high levels of prize-money, fueling interest in the sport.

"There are quite a few people missing, but I am finding that the people (who are not here) are being represented by other people," said Orton.

"I think all those who are usually interested and are usually here are looking at horses, but I haven't identified too many new people.

"There's quite a bit of activity from within the colts groups and the fillies groups. There's quite a bit of diversity from the buyers in how they are approaching the market, so I can't see why this isn't as strong a sale as there's ever been."

Last year's Book 1 sale, the first time a larger catalog had been compiled, achieved a record aggregate of A$197,240,000 at an average of A$253,888 and a median price of A$180,000 and, despite the optimism of Orton and other industry participants, there remains suggestions that those benchmark figures could fall by somewhere between 5 -10% at this year's sale.

Others argue, though, that while the Omicron variant runs rampant around the eastern states of Australia at present, the key drivers of the racing industry are largely unaffected and remain similar to last year, which spurred an increasing appetite to invest in racehorses.

Melbourne agent Suman Hedge, who will be representing the Rosemont Stud-led Victorian Alliance colts partnership, as well as leading Perth trainers Grant and Alana Williams in their plans to expand their client base, is of the view that there will still be strong competition across all levels of the market from the buying bench.

Hedge said: "I have seen the whole catalog now and I have got a good impression of the sale. I feel like there's enough there for everyone.

"There's some elite colts, there's some lovely fillies there and there's horses there that will fit every part of the market, so I am pretty buoyant about it and I think we will be fairly active.

"I think it is always hard to know what's going to happen until the sale starts, but all of the markers would suggest that it will be a strong sale. The quality (horses are) here and everyone is here to buy, so I am anticipating that it will be a very strong sale."

Magic Millions managing director Barry Bowditch said that the history of the Gold Coast sale, which has produced the likes of Farnan, Capitalist, and Sebring , among others, kept buyers coming back year after year.

"There's a great middle to this catalog," he said.

"There will obviously be fireworks along the way but it is an outstanding middle, there's an outstanding depth (of horse) and what this sale represents is the product it produces on the racetrack, which is second to none, and no sale can compare to it."

While the Victorian Alliance is certain to be a player at the top end, so too are the likes of fellow colts syndicates such as the James Harron partnership, the Coolmore group, the Newgate Farm-China Horse Club syndicate and the Mark Player and Rob Roulston-organized group, all of whom are set to underpin the male division of the sale.

However, the sudden decision by the U.S.-owned Spendthrift Farm to sell its Australian operation means one high-end buyer, who would have been expected to be participating only a few weeks ago, is now out of the market.

"The depth of the market, it could always be questionable given that we're going through a pandemic and not everyone is here and it is a huge number of horses we've got to sell, but in saying that I am very confident in the horses we've got," Bowditch continued.

"One thing that Magic Millions does is ensures we've got a horse here for every number and at every budget, so I think buyers have got to keep their lists long and whatever market you're looking to play in, and whether you're here or you are not here, you should be taking time to look through the catalog and do your work because there's a quality line of horses who will sell at all numbers."