Tip of the Week: Becoming a Wizard of Odds

Trying to pick a winner at 60-to-1 odds can seem like an exercise in futility, yet sometimes it’s that jumbo-sized price on the toteboard which can turn out to be the beacon that shines a light on the dark path to riches at the mutuel windows.
On Saturday, April 4, Summer Place to Be – a horse with a name that conjures thoughts of Saratoga – ran in the seventh race on a windy early spring day at Aqueduct.
A 5-year-old New York-bred gelding, he was priced at 15-1 morning line, odds which the betting public considered too low as his price hit 30-1 and continued to rise as post time drew closer.
Summer Place to Be was making his first start since June, and a nine-month layoff certainly explains why most bettors steer cleared of him.
Yet in looking over Summer Place to Be’s past performances, those skyrocketing odds seemed out of line.
Back on June 21, in Summer Place to Be finished fifth as the 3-2 favorite in a non-winners of two state-bred allowance test, the same level as his comeback race on Saturday.
He finished fifth in that race at Belmont Park, beaten nearly 10 lengths, and the lengthy time he spent on the sidelines after that indicates something went wrong either during or after the race. He also switched trainers from Anthony Dutrow, who was winning at 24 percent clip back in June, to Thomas Morley, who had an 11 percent winning mark in 2015.
Those were not positive signs, but prior to that race Summer Place to Be won a non-winners of one state-bred allowance race, earning a speed figure good enough to win his comeback start. He was also shedding blinkers, which he wore for the first and only time in his June race. In addition to that, in five of his seven career starts, he was favored at odds of 7-2 or less. He was never higher than 6-1.
Given his past body of work, a 15-1 or 20-1 price seemed fair off the layoff for a horse that had never seen 10-1 before.
Yet Summer Place to Be’s odds reached an astronomical 61-1 at post time.
Overlays are always attractive because of the value they offer and here, even if you thought Summer Place to Be needed a race, he could not be ignored because his odds were so much higher than they figured to be.
Perhaps if he was running in a graded stakes, the 61-1 price would be fair or even an underlay, but against a weak group of state-breds Summer Place to Be’s odds made him worth at least a small fling in the exotics. Unlike the typical 60-1 shot with a string of weak efforts, Summer Place to Be’s major concern was rust – hardly a reason to steer clear at such a huge price.
Handicappers who felt Summer Place to Be’s odds were too attractive to ignore were treated to quite a prize when Summer Place to Be returned sharp off the layoff and posted a 3 ¼-length victory, returning a sparkling $124.50 for a $2 win bet and topping a $76,159 superfecta.
THE LESSON: Overlays are a grand prize for handicappers and can sometimes point the way to winners at odds that defy conventional wisdom.