Betting the Elkhorn on a $20 Budget

Unitarian is back to defend his title in the Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
The feature race on Saturday at Keeneland is the Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes, which has attracted a field of 11 horses competing for the $250,000 purse. The race is scheduled to be run on the turf course, and can be considered a “marathon” with its distance of 1½ miles.
In my opinion, the Elkhorn is wide open, with many of the horses seeming  to have a decent chance of winning. You can certainly get creative when handicapping this race, but below are some of the horses I view as main contenders in the Elkhorn:
Biz The Nurse (#2): This horse started his racing career in Italy, where he competed against some of the best Italian horses and actually won a Group 1 (the highest level) race in 2013. Most recently, Biz The Nurse was victorious on March 7 at Gulfstream Park, which could set him up for a top performance on Saturday.
My Afleet (3): He has not competed in a race since September of last year, so his level of fitness will definitely be in question in the Elkhorn. However, I do like My Afleet’s running style of taking an early lead and trying to hold off the closers late, and I think that running style could prove to be advantageous for him in this race.
Unitarian (4): No one can question the formidable trainer/jockey combination this horse has in his corner, with trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Javier Castellano both currently atop the standings at the 2015 Keeneland spring meet. Winner of the 2014 Elkhorn, Unitarian most recently won a stakes race at Gulfstream Park and will be one of the likely choices to repeat that performance on Saturday.
Holiday Star (6): This is another horse coming off a layoff, having not competed in a race since November of 2014. Holiday Star’s trainer, Graham Motion, is one of the best in the business at preparing a horse to run well after a break, and it should be noted that Holiday Star has already won a graded stakes on the Keeneland turf, last October’s Sycamore Stakes over the same 1½-mile distance as the Elkhorn.
Dynamic Sky (10): Dynamic Sky spent the winter in California, where he competed in three races at Santa Anita with limited success. However, this horse won the Grade 3 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct last fall, so perhaps the move back east will help him. Dynamic Sky will eclipse $1 million in career earnings with a first- or second-place finish in the Elkhorn on Saturday.
Betting Strategy:
$1 exacta box 3, 4, 6, 10 ($12)
$1 exacta 6 with 2, 3, 4, 10 ($4)
$1 exacta 2, 3, 4, 10 with 6 ($4)
$250,000 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes
Saturday, Keeneland, Race 9 at 5:13 p.m. ET
1 1/2 miles, Turf, 4-year-olds and older

PP

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

M/L

1

Dramedy

Joe Bravo

Gerald Aschinger

John James

20/1

2

Biz The Nurse (IRE)

Luis Saez

Tom Albertrani

John D’Amato

8/1

3

My Afleet

Joe Rocco, Jr.

James L. Lawrence, II

Jeffrey S. Amling and Merriefield Farm

10/1

4

Unitarian

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

Robert S. Evans

9/2

5

Cary Street

Paco Lopez

Brendan Walsh

JBL Thoroughbreds and Walsh Racing

6/1

6

Holiday Star

Rajiv Maragh

Graham Motion

Augustin Stable

5/1

7

Java's War

James Graham

Roger Attfield

Charles Fipke

15/1

8

Optimizer

Corey Lanerie

Jose Fernandez

Calumet Farm

6/1

9

Aldous Snow

Jose Lezcano

Malcolm Pierce

Sam-Son Farm

8/1

10

Dynamic Sky

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

John Oxley

7/2

11

Xtra Luck

Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Neil Howard

Michele and Cliff Love

30/1