Derby Trail: Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down

American Pharoah confirmed his credentials as the most likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby with a dominant victory in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby on April 11 at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
A capsule look at three horses who are heating up on the Triple Crown trail and three horses whose Kentucky Derby chances are not quite as strong as they were one week ago. DISCLAIMER: Divining Rod would definitely have made the list given his huge performance in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, but since he is targeting the Preakness Stakes rather than the Kentucky Derby he did not qualify.
Heating Up

1. American Pharoah  

Eclipse Sportswire

It would be hard for any racing fan — dedicated or casual — or horse racing analyst to watch the Arkansas Derby and come away from the race thinking American Pharoah is anything but one of the best horses in his generation and a legitimate threat to win the Kentucky Derby. Unless that person is simply a contrarian or looking to stir the pot, American Pharoah must be considered one of the top two contenders for the first jewel of the Triple Crown. He has ripped off four straight dominant victories with Equibase Speed Figures of 105, 107, 108 and 107. He does not appear to have had a taxing Arkansas Derby in any way as he was geared down late and essentially paired the figure he earned for winning his season debut in the Rebel Stakes. American Pharoah also is relatively fresh with only two starts this season and proved in his final Derby prep he can rate behind horses and still dominate. The two most frequently heard criticisms are lack of stamina on the bottom half of his pedigree and the fact that he’s never looked down a challenge in the stretch and won. How often do you find a Derby entrant without a few question marks? The Kentucky Derby is the first time horses are ever asked to run 1 ¼ miles, so it is the nature of the race.

2. Far Right  

Eclipse Sportswire 

My first instinct in watching Far Right’s runner-up finish in the Arkansas Derby, beaten by eight lengths, was simply to decide he was hopelessly overmatched against the elite 3-year-olds. That still might be true, but I went back and watched the race again, and when it was clear that Far Right had the measure of Mr. Z  and had no shot at catching American Pharoah, Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith made sure he didn’t ask Far Right for too much. He steadily reeled in Mr. Z without being touched by the whip and collected the points needed to guarantee his place in the Kentucky Derby. Coming off a seven-week layoff with his most important career race just three weeks away, Far Right is a closer who should have gas in the tank and pace to run into for the first jewel of the Triple Crown. I’ll be using him liberally in exactas and trifectas for second and third.

3. Mr. Z  

Eclipse Sportswire

Can Mr. Z be on my heating up and cooling down lists? I guess not. Let’s just say I’ve never set foot on the Mr. Z bandwagon. I’ve never been a horse hater in that I pretty much like any member of the equine breed because horses are awesome. (OK, Birdstone in 2004 was an exception, at least until I saw him at Gainesway and we reached a mutual understanding and moved on together with life.) For this list, Mr. Z is heating up because he secured a spot in the Kentucky Derby with 34 points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard. One would imagine Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas will push on to Churchill given his philosophy that you have to be in a race to win it and if you don’t take the shot you have zero chance. On the other hand, Mr. Z has one win in 12 starts and has never proved he could win against elite competition. He moved up to challenge American Pharoah and was simply overwhelmed in the stretch. Mr. Z is a very nice racehorse … talented enough to place in seven graded stakes, including three Grade 1. But a Kentucky Derby winner, he ain’t.

Cooling Off

1. Madefromlucky

Eclipse Sportswire

The Rebel Stakes runner-up looked like he was headed in the right direction entering the Arkansas Derby off a career-best Equibase Speed Figure in his stakes debut. By 2010 Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky and trained by Todd Pletcher, Madefromlucky needed a top-three finish in the Arkansas Derby to guarantee a spot in the Kentucky Derby, but he really never accelerated and finished fourth, nine lengths behind American Pharoah. He currently ranks 21st on the Road to the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, so he needs only one defection to make the 20-horse field, but the gut feel here is he is a cut below the best 3-year-olds right now. That could change later this year, but for now he would not be on my tickets should he draw into the field.

2. Upstart  

Eclipse Sportswire 

No need to sound any sirens, but Holy Bull Stakes winner Upstart spiked a fever that forced him to miss a planned workout on Saturday at Palm Meadows Training Center. Daily Racing Form reported his temperature returned to normal the next morning and that trainer Rick Violette was “cautiously optimistic” that the Flatter ridgling would be able to continue on the path to the Kentucky Derby. That’s good news for the Florida Derby runner-up. The bad news is having watched the Kentucky Derby for many years, it’s become pretty clear that everything needs to go right for a horse to overcome 19 opponents, 150,000-plus fans and an inflexible schedule to win the most important race in the North America. Tough to recall an instance where a horse missed a planned workout for reasons other than weather and still went on to win the race. Like I said, not enough to sound the alarm bells but definitely something to keep a close eye on. Upstart’s next workout will be critical.

3. Prospect Park (below), Ami's Flatter

Eclipse Sportswire

This is not an indictment on either 3-year-old, both very talented, but since the last version of Three Heating Up, Three Cooling Down both dropped off the Kentucky Derby trail. Prospect Park had a low-grade fever that knocked him from consideration and the connections of Ami's Flatter opted to target the Queen’s Plate Stakes and the Canadian classics. Both are very talented horses that we will see later this season in important races but not the Kentucky Derby. 

CURRY'S DERBY TOP 10

1. Dortmund  2. American Pharoah 3. Firing Line 4. Carpe Diem  5. Materiality 6. International Star  7. Far Right  8. Mubtaahij 9. Frosted  10. Danzig Moon 
Four on the bubble: Upstart, One Lucky Dane, Stanford, Bolo

Racing Terms
Allowance race – A race for which the racing secretary drafts certain conditions to determine weights to be carried based on the horse’s age, sex and/or past performance.
Also-eligible – A horse officially entered for a race, but not permitted to start unless the field is reduced by scratches below a specified number.
Apprentice – A rider who has not ridden a certain number of winners within a specified period of time. Also known as a “bug,” from the asterisk used to denote the weight allowance such riders receive.
Blinkers – A cup-shaped device that limits a horse’s vision. Blinkers, often used to try to improve a horse’s focus, come in a variety of sizes and shapes to allow as little or as much vision as the trainer feels is necessary.
Bullet – The fastest workout of the day at a track at a particular distance.
Claiming race – A race in which each horse entered is eligible to be purchased at a set price.
Closer – A horse that runs best in the latter part of the race, coming from off the pace.
Connections – Persons identified with a horse, such as owner, trainer, jockey and stable employees.
Disqualification – Change in order of finish by stewards for an infraction of the rules.
Dam – The mother of a horse.
Entry – Two or more horses with common ownership that are paired as a single betting unit in one race.
Front-runner – A horse whose running style is to attempt to get on or near the lead at the start of the race and to continue there as long as possible.
Furlong – An eighth of a mile.
Graded race – A non-restricted race with added money or guaranteed purse value of $100,000 or more which has been run at least twice under similar conditions and on the same surface and has been assigned graded status for the year contested by the American Graded Stakes Committee.
Handicap – This race type refers to a race where the weights are assigned by the track’s racing secretary or handicapper based upon past performances.
Length – A measurement approximating the length of a horse, used to denote distance between horses in a race.
Off track – A track that has a wet surface and isn’t labeled as “fast”.
Pacesetter – The horse that is running in front (on the lead).
Past performances – A horse’s racing record, earnings, bloodlines and other data, presented in composite form.
Prep – A workout (or race) used to prepare a horse for a future engagement.
Post Parade – Horses going from paddock to starting gate past the stands. The post parade provides spectators with a chance to get a final look at the horse before the race.
Post Position – Position of stall in starting gate from which a horse begins a race.
Rabbit – A speed horse running as an entry with another, usually a come-from-behind horse. The rabbit is expected to set a fast pace to help the chances of its stablemate.
Rank – A horse that refuses to settle under a jockey’s handling in a race, running in a headstrong manner without respect to pace.
Scratch – To be taken out of a race before it starts.
Silks – Jacket and cap worn by jockeys.
Sire – Father of a foal.
Stakes – A race for which the owner usually must pay a fee to run a horse. The fees can be for nominating, maintaining eligibility, entering and starting, to which the track adds more money to make up the total purse. Some stakes races are by invitation and require no payment or fee.