Messier Out of the Box, Into Derby Dozen

1. Zandon  

Owner/Trainer: Jeff Drown/Chad Brown

Pedigree: Upstart  —Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause   

Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)

Run as a grade 2 since 2017, the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) regains top-level graded status for 2022. This year, it should be worthy of that elevated grade with this colt, Smile Happy , and Classic Causeway  a few of those under consideration to the April 9 event at Keeneland. Zandon has not won stakes like others in the 'Dozen, but he came close to doing so—he was bumped and impeded when second by a nose in the Remsen Stakes (G2), though New York stewards made no change to the order of finish. His lone start of 2022 was a slow-start third in the Feb. 19 Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2).

2. Smile Happy  

Lucky Seven Stable/Kenny McPeek

Runhappy  —Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap

Moreau Bloodstock International and White Bloodstock (KY)

After considering both the April 2 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) and Blue Grass, trainer Kenny McPeek has opted for Blue Grass, per Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman in a March 21 tweet. The move isn't a surprise. This colt broke his maiden at Keeneland, and the Lexington track is a regular focus for his trainer, who went to college just down the road at the University of Kentucky. The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) winner and Risen Star runner-up finished just head of stablemate Rattle N Roll  while traveling easier in a joint five-furlong drill in :58 4/5 March 19 at Gulfstream Park.

Our two dream chasers out for a stroll @GulfstreamPark (Smile Happy inside & Rattle N Roll outside) pic.twitter.com/1zgxfgrrM6

— Lucky Seven Stable (@Lucky7Stable) March 20, 2022

3. Messier  

SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable, and Siena Farm/Bob Baffert

Empire Maker —Checkered Past , by Smart Strike 

Sam-Son Farm (ONT)

His owners have remained loyal to embattled trainer Bob Baffert, but barring an 11th-hour court ruling that grants Baffert a stay of a 90-day suspension issued by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, this colt will need to start for another trainer if he runs as intended in the April 9 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1). A barn switch would allow this colt to earn Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) qualifying points, per Churchill Downs rules, opening the door for him to make the Derby. Messier could climb even higher in the rankings in the coming weeks as his outlook becomes more apparent.

4. Forbidden Kingdom 

MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm/Richard Mandella

American Pharoah  —Just Louise , by Five Star Day 

Springhouse Farm (KY)

Due to running a temperature last week, he missed a workout at Santa Anita Park, which would have been his first since a frontrunning romp in the March 5 San Felipe Stakes (G2). Should he resume breezing this week, it likely should not set him back too much, trainer Richard Mandella believes. A showdown with Messier looms in the Santa Anita Derby. They've met before, with Messier beating him in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) last fall at Del Mar, a seven-furlong sprint. 

5. Epicenter  

Winchell Thoroughbreds/Steve Asmussen

Not This Time  —Silent Candy , by Candy Ride   

Westwind Farms (KY)

Nipped by Call Me Midnight  after setting fast splits in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), he set a more comfortable pace in the Risen Star and was uncatchable. Now he's favored to repeat in the March 26 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, where he again appears to be controlling speed. The Kentucky Derby could present a different scenario with a speedball like Forbidden Kingdom is in the mix. 

6. White Abarrio  

C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable/Saffie Joseph Jr.

Race Day —Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief   

Spendthrift Farm (KY)

He closed at 22-1 odds in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager that concluded March 13— perhaps out of sight, out of mind with bettors after laying low following a win in the Feb. 5 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream. Some future-wager bettors may not have liked that this colt's only loss came at Churchill when third in the Kentucky Jockey Club last fall. He received a learning experience kind of trip that day, eased off the speed and bottled up in traffic until the stretch.

7. Simplification   

Tami Bobo/Antonio Sano

Not This Time—Simply Confection , by Candy Ride 

France Weiner and Irwin J. Weiner (FL)

He resumed breezing Saturday at Gulfstream after his victory in the March 5 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2), covering five furlongs in 1:01 45, an easy work one would expect for a horse that has kept an active racing schedule through the entire winter. Trainer Antonio Sano's last Fountain of Youth winner, Gunnevera   (2017), finished third in the Florida Derby. This colt is much more tactical than that late-running type.

8. Classic Causeway 

Kentucky West Racing and Clarke M. Cooper/Brian Lynch

Giant's Causeway —Private World , by Thunder Gulch 

Kentucky West Racing and Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY)

He was lengths the best in two starts this winter in Florida, winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (G2), though neither race drew a stellar field. So his next start, whether in the Blue Grass or elsewhere, should provide a measuring stick of where he stands against some of the division's elite. Last year at age 2, he faced very good company, hitting the board in both the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.

9. Mo Donegal  

Donegal Racing/Todd Pletcher

Uncle Mo  —Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit 

Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables (KY)

After scratching from the Fountain of Youth after drawing the outside post and running a fever, he returned to the worktab this past Saturday with a :49 2/5 half-mile move in tandem with Emmanuel  at Palm Beach Downs. Trainer Todd Pletcher figures to tighten the screws further with two more breezes leading toward the April 9 Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2) at Aqueduct Racetrack, where he edged Zandon in the Remsen in December. 

10. Emmanuel  

WinStar Farm and Siena Farm/Todd Pletcher

More Than Ready  —Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun   

Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY)

Take note of his troubled fourth in the Fountain of Youth. After flashing speed in winning his first two starts against easier company, he was off poorly and then lost ground with a wide trip. With just five Derby points, he needs to pick up points in the final round of preps but has the talent to do so and continue his march to Louisville. This past Saturday at Palm Meadows, he and Mo Donegal worked head to head in a half-mile work with a spirited gallop out.

11. Morello  

Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T Racing/Steve Asmussen

Classic Empire  —Stop the Wedding, by Congrats  

Robert B. Tillyer & Dr. Chet Blackey (KY)

Mo Donegal will find this colt waiting for him when he makes his way to New York for the Wood. Morello is 3-for-3, topped by a 4 1/2-length victory in the one-mile Gotham Stakes (G3) as trainer Steve Asmussen has gradually stretched him out with each race. Now comes a two-turn test over 1 1/8 miles in the Wood, a race also expected to lure Withers Stakes (G3) winner Early Voting . 

12. Rattle N Roll 

Lucky Seven Stable/Kenny McPeek

Connect  —Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg  

St. Simon Place (KY)

Though he was a little behind Smile Happy at the finish of a breeze at Gulfstream this past weekend, he stayed competitive, perhaps indicative he is fitter after a comeback sixth in the Fountain of Youth, which followed a five-month layoff. Let's not forget this colt is a grade 1-winning router at Keeneland with past success at Churchill Downs. Returning on three weeks rest in the Louisiana Derby, he didn't catch all that much speed help to soften Epicenter for his rally. Otherwise, the horse looks ready for a favorable showing.