"Japan Road to KY Derby" Will Go to Last-Race Winner

The "Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby" boils down to a one-race "winner take all" March 26 with the victor in the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama Racecourse guaranteed first dibs on a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate.

The series leader going in, Combustion , holds 38 points but bypassed the Fukuryu to run instead in the UAE Derby Sponsored by Mubadala (G2), at Meydan Racecourse a few hours earlier.

No other starter in the Fukuryu currently has any points in the series. The winner gets 40 and, thus, a lock on the title—with one provision.

To accept the bid to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), the winner must be nominated to the U.S. Triple Crown. Only three of the eight entered for the Fukuryu are early nominees.

Jasper Great , a Kentucky-bred Arrogate  colt, came to the TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile Presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G1) off a 10-length victory in a newcomer race at Hanshin Racecourse but was a rare disappointment for the Japanese squad at Del Mar, finishing 10th. He's been no better back home, finishing 12th and seventh in two starts in January.

One of those disappointments for Jasper Great was won by Ho O Roulette, a Roses in May  colt whose owner, Yoshihisa Ozasa, honored the sire's name with an early Triple Crown nomination. That victory, by six lengths going 1 1/8 miles, came over a field that also included Cafe Karma , runner-up in the first leg of the "Japan Road," the Cattleya Stakes at Tokyo Racecourse in November.

The third Triple Crown nominee in the field, Line of Soul, by Sinister Minister , finished seventh in the Cattleya and 12th in the third leg, the Hyacinth Stakes over the same course Feb. 20.

Early nominees to the Triple Crown can be made eligible by a payment of $6,000 due by March 28. Thereafter, they would have to be supplemented to individual legs of the American series.

If the top points-earner in the "Japan Road" does not accept the Derby invitation, the opportunity will be extended down as far as the fourth horse on the list. In theory, that could make Combustion doubly eligible should he earn enough points in the UAE Derby, which is part of the main Churchill Downs "Road" series.

The Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby has had only a limited impact on the U.S. Triple Crown. Lani , a son of Tapit  , competed in the race in 2016, the year before the Japan Road was concocted by Churchill Downs. He later finished ninth in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (G1), fifth in the Preakness Stakes (G1), and third in the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1).

It was not until 2019 that Master Fencer  became the first colt to emerge from the Japanese series to start in Louisville, where he finished seventh and was promoted to sixth by the disqualification of Maximum Security  . The Just a Way  colt was beaten only four lengths with a furious charge from the back of the pack. He next ran fifth in the Belmont Stakes.