DerbyJackpot’s Best Bets of the Weekend for April 18-19
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Photo courtesy of Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing
America’s Best Racing and DerbyJackpot team up to provide horseplayers with their best bets of the weekend in a regular feature blog that will run on Fridays.
Each week, one of our crack handicappers - Jose Contreras, Dan Tordjman, Victoria Garofalo or Cory Moelis – will provide at least one “Best Bet” of the weekend, ideal for a win bet.
The post also will include some combination of additional bets for the weekend.
For some posts, our handicappers will try to identify a longshot play of the weekend, a nice opportunity to swing for the fences on a win bet or to take a shot with a show bet.
Our handicappers also will look for strong exacta plays for the weekend or occasionally try to spot a nice opportunity to bet a trifecta or superfecta.
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Saturday, April 18
Best Bet (Win Bet/Monkey Bet)
Aqueduct, Race 5 – Woodhaven Stakes, 3:24 p.m. ET
#5 Eh Cumpari: In his first time on grass this year, he lost to Duabi Sky, who was a 2015 Kentucky Derby hopeful with enough qualifying points for the race until he recently sustained an injury. Eh Cumpari showed heart and determination in his last race, the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes, and despite going eight wide and being bumped in the stretch, he prevailed by a neck. Reunited with jockey Channing Hill, who was aboard for his breathtaking first-time-out win, where they went from last to first at 45.75-to-1 odds despite racing nine wide.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Keeneland, Race 9 - Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes, 5:13 p.m. ET
This should be an interesting race with half of the field coming off of layoffs ranging from 4 to 7 months.
#2 Biz The Nurse: A Group 1 winner in Europe, Biz The Nurse is coming off a win in his first race in North America at Gulfstream Park, where he went three wide on the turn and won by 1 ¾ lengths. He relishes route racing, winning his most recent start at 1 7/16 miles and hitting the board all four times he raced at the 1 ½-mile distance, with one win. A picture of consistency on grass, finishing in the top three in 11 out of 12 races, he looks to be a strong contender at a square price. With jockey Luis Saez aboard, these two have their work cut out for them in this competitive field.
#10 Dynamic Sky: He is undoubtedly the class of the race with a steady schedule of graded races under his saddle, placing twice back-to-back at today’s distance in Grade 1 races. He ran against a competitive field, led by champion Shared Belief, on the dirt in his last race. Although he hasn't placed in his last three starts, he has been in the top three in 6 of his last 10. With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, he is aiming to get back on track. The only knock is that he’s only got one win out of eight on grass, but he’s got the numbers and should be in contention.
Sunday, April 19
Best Bet (Win Bet/Monkey Bet)
Aqueduct, Race 4 – Danger’s Hour Stakes, 2:53 p.m. ET
#5 Lubash is coming into this race off a 5-month layoff (and becoming a new millionaire) after winning the Grade 3 Tropical Turf Handicap at Gulfstream on Nov. 22. He’s got two graded stakes wins in his career, and last year he won four of his seven starts and finished second in each of his three losses. With jockey Junior Alvarado back at the reins, the combo looks solid to beat this field and get Lubash’s 2015 season off to a running start.
Exacta Box (Gonzo Bet)
Aqueduct, Race 7, 4:26 p.m. ET
It’s a game of percentages and I’m going with percentages in this race – both trainers are having incredible meets at Aqueduct right now.
#8 Unreprenting won his first-time out in game effort for trainer Linda Rice, who is winning 25% of races for the year and 43% for this meet (with 11 out of 14 on the board). He should sit off the hot pace of Possilicious and be right there in the stretch under jockey Cornelio Velasquez.
#2 Possilicious should jump to the early lead under apprentice jockey Angel Cruz at the reins, and I’m giving him the slight edge. He’s 2-for-2 on Aqueduct main track with both easy wins of three lengths or more. New York trainer David Jacobson won with him off the claim last time out with blinkers despite stumbling at the start. If Possilicious repeats his last effort, he looks to CRUZ to a win.