

1. Epicenter
Owner/Trainer: Winchell Thoroughbreds/Steve Asmussen
Pedigree: Not This Time —Silent Candy , by Candy Ride
Breeder: Westwind Farms (KY)
Video distributed on social media showed him with an energetic gallop over the Churchill Downs surface April 4, suggesting he exited the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) in fine fettle. Perhaps this is the year North America's winningest trainer Steve Asmussen breaks through with an elusive Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) victory. He's come close before—with two seconds and two thirds in 23 starts. Epicenter has all the ingredients of a top Derby contender.
2. Zandon
Jeff Drown/Chad Brown
Upstart —Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause
Brereton C. Jones (KY)
With just 14 qualifying points toward the Derby, he needs to add to his tally in the April 9 Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. A win (100 points) or a second (40) safely puts him in the Derby, while a third (20) could leave him on the bubble. After tough trips when second in the Remsen Stakes (G2) and third in the Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford (G2), eager to see what he can do with racing luck.
3. Messier
SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable, and Siena Farm/Tim Yakteen
Empire Maker —Checkered Past , by Smart Strike
Sam-Son Farm (ON)
After a stiff in-company drill March 27, he had more of a maintenance breeze April 2 at Santa Anita Park, covering a solo five furlongs in 1:00 2/5. A matchup with Forbidden Kingdom is on deck in the April 9 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby (G1). Messier previously defeated that speedster when they met in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3) last fall at Del Mar after the latter established blazing splits. The Santa Anita Derby will mark the first start for trainer Tim Yakteen, who subs for suspended Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert.
4. Smile Happy
Lucky Seven Stable/Kenny McPeek
Runhappy —Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap
Moreau Bloodstock International and White Bloodstock (KY)
Though he lost for the first time in the Risen Star, his runner-up finish was encouraging. Topped by the production of victorious Epicenter, the form from the race has held up. Anticipating improvement from Smile Happy in his second race off the bench at age 3. Two other Kenny McPeek-trained 3-year-olds—Tiz the Bomb and to a lesser extent Rattle N Roll —have taken steps forward since their sophomore debuts. Smile Happy goes next in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, where he scored on debut last fall.
5. White Abarrio
C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable/Saffie Joseph Jr.
Race Day —Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief
Spendthrift Farm (KY)
He heads to Louisville having won the Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa (G1), the prep race that has produced the most winners (24) in Kentucky Derby history. Unlike in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3), when he pressed the pace outside before powering to victory, he needed to come from farther behind in the Florida Derby after racing in fifth. His closing eighth (:14.09) and 1 1/8-mile final time (1:50.64) were on the slow side, though he still earned a 99 Equibase Speed Figure.

6. Simplification
Tami Bobo/Antonio Sano
Not This Time—Simply Confection , by Candy Ride
France Weiner and Irwin J. Weiner (FL)
The Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) victor merits praise for sticking around for third in the Florida Derby. Between Classic Causeway and Pappacap early, he seemed to grow a little keen—and that proved costly when a part of contesting fractions of :47.24 and 1:10.68. Classic Causeway was first to throw in the towel, fading to 11th (and resulting in his Derby Dozen departure), and Pappacap yielded to be fourth. This colt was gritty to only lose by 2 1/4 lengths.
7. Charge It
Whisper Hill Farm/Todd Pletcher
Tapit —I'll Take Charge , by Indian Charlie
Whisper Hill Farm (KY)
Quite a performance from this 3-year-old to run second in the Florida Derby in just his third start, though his inexperience showed. Off a beat slowly after hitting the side of the starting gate, he ended up stalking the leaders and then drifted in down the stretch when rallying. That noted, he was outpaced by White Abarrio when that rival made his decisive winning move on the second turn. With just three starts under his belt and still green, this colt can't afford any miscues in the Derby.
8. Forbidden Kingdom
MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm/Richard Mandella
American Pharoah —Just Louise , by Five Star Day
Springhouse Farm (KY)
Though this frontrunner was much the best in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), his stock dips this week in the 'Dozen due to three off-the-board finishes from San Felipe returnees. San Felipe runner-up Doppelganger ran fourth in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park; fifth-place finisher Cabo Spirit ran sixth in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park; and seventh-place finish Worse Read Sanchez finished fifth in an allowance optional claimer at Santa Anita Park.
9. Mo Donegal
Donegal Racing/Todd Pletcher
Uncle Mo —Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit
Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables (KY)
Appearing likely to finish off the board when stuck in neutral in the Feb. 5 Holy Bull, he eventually kicked into gear over the short stretch to grab third behind White Abarrio and slow-starting Simplification, two of the elite 3-year-olds in Florida this winter. Now Mo Donegal heads to Aqueduct Racetrack for the 1 1/8-mile Wood Memorial Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2), where he will square off against graded stakes winners Morello and Early Voting .
10. Cyberknife
Gold Square/Brad Cox
Gun Runner —Awesome Flower , by Flower Alley
Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey (KY)
An early backstretch move in the Arkansas Derby (G1) to go from fourth to second shed him from traffic, though it likely contributed to relatively slow splits from him over the final portion of the 1 1/8-mile race. Like White Abarrio in the Florida Derby, he didn't run particularly quick, timed in 1:50.42. An hour earlier at Oaklawn Park, Yuugiri ran 1 1/16 miles in the Fantasy Stakes (G3) in a quicker-for-the-distance 1:43.65.

11. Crown Pride
Teruya Yoshida/Koichi Shintani
Reach The Crown —Emmy's Pride , by King Kamehameha
Shadai Farm (JPN)
This Japanese runner's form is similar to that of Lani prior to his ninth-place finish in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Like that runner, Crown Pride won the UAE Derby Sponsored By Mubadala (G2) in Dubai after finishing unplaced in the Hyacinth Stakes in Tokyo. Where they differ is in pedigree and style. Lani was an American-bred that ran from well off the pace, while Crown Pride has Japanese bloodlines and is much more tactical. He quickly positioned himself just off the leaders after a squeeze at the start of the UAE Derby.
12. Zozos
Barry and Joni Butzow/Brad Cox
Munnings —Papa's Forest , by Forestry
Barry Butzow & Joni Butzow (KY)
For a horse making just his third start and first in a stakes in the Louisiana Derby, it didn't show in his performance. He busted out to set the tempo, took pressure from the more seasoned Pioneer of Medina , and held on well for second to Epicenter, who was timed in a track record 1:54.38 for 1 3/16 miles. This developing colt needs another forward move to close the gap on Epicenter and handle a deeper field in the Derby.