Tip of the Week: The Company You Keep

Money Changer broke his maiden after facing future stakes horses in his first four starts. (Photo by Coady Photography)
When it comes to young horses, it makes all the sense in the world to judge them by the company they keep.
Take Money Changer. When he was entered in the sixth race at Keeneland on April 12, he certainly had the look of a horse who seemed to enjoy the maiden ranks and intended to stay there for a while.
In four career starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, the 3-year-old gelding had finished second once and third on the other three occasions, each time going off at odds of 9-2 or less. Money Changer? More like Money Burner.
Except when you look at the horses that had beaten him.
Through the help of the search engine at Equibase.com, it was easy enough to learn that in Money Changer’s first start on July 19 he was third to highly regarded stablemate Blame Jim, who was an odds-on 4-5 favorite that day at Saratoga and wound up racing the Gotham Stakes in his third career start.
In his second start, on Aug. 16, he was second to Bold Conquest, who was second in the July 19 race. Since then, Bold Conquest has become graded stakes-placed, finishing second in a Grade 2 stakes and third in Grade 1 and Grade 2 stakes.
Money Changer’s final start at two came on Sept. 12, when he was third behind the victorious The Truth Or Else, who would finish third in the Grade 1 Champagne and Grade 2 Nashua at two and second in the Grade 3 Southwest at three.
In Money Changer’s 2015 debut, he ran into Donworth and settled for third. Donworth, on the heels of just that maiden win, was entered in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland the day before Money Changer’s maiden race and finished second as the 8-5 favorite.
Clearly Money Changer’s main problem was not an aversion the winner’s circle as it was his ability to serve as magnet for stakes-caliber rivals – a phenomenon that had to change at some point.
The April 12 race seemed as good a spot as any to test the notion that Money Changer would not run into a stakes-bound rival once again.
It would be a different matter if Money Changer was 4 and losing to mediocre rivals. But maiden races for 2-year-olds and 3-year-olds in the early part of the year can often attract fast horses with a bright future in front of them. Yet at some point Money Changer had to find a field without a budding star in it, right?
His odds of $2.40-to-1 might have seemed an underlay for Money Burner, but for those who believed fate had finally dealt Money Changer an easier hand, there was indeed a payoff.
Money Changer prevailed by a neck in a tense stretch duel and finally secured that elusive maiden win, paying $6.80.
Who knows? Now maybe he’ll be the one appearing in a stakes somewhere down the road.
THE LESSON: Young horses with a string of close but losing efforts should not be dismissed as perennial maidens too quickly. They might simply be victims of running into quality opponents.