Titleholder, Deep Bond Lead Two-Mile Tenno Sho

History would seem to show Titleholder is a lock to win the Tenno Sho (Spring, G1) May 1 at Hanshin Racecourse—at 3,200 meters (about two miles), the longest top-level race of the year on the Japanese turf.

Per the Japan Racing Association, grade 1 success is a major differentiator in the Tenno Sho with seven of the last eight winners holding an earlier JRA grade 1. Even in 2021, when only two previous grade 1 winners entered, the Tenno Sho went to 2019 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger, G1) winner World Premiere.

The 3,000-meter (about 1 7/8 miles) Kikuka Sho itself is an even stronger differentiator as six of the last seven Tenno Sho (Spring) winners also won that Classic earlier in their career and the seventh finished second.

All of which brings us to 2022 and a field of 18, with only one of them—the aforementioned Titleholder—a winner at the grade 1 level. And Titleholder's top-level score was the 2021 Kikuka Sho. The 4-year-old by Duramente  followed that triumph last October with a fifth-place finish behind eventual Japanese Horse of the Year Efforia in the Arima Kinen (G1) in December and kicked off his 2022 season with a win in the Nikkei Sho (G2) going 2,500 meters (about 1 9/16 miles) at Nakayama Racecourse.

Trainer Toru Kurita said his charge has been improving, including since that last race. He said he expects history will mark Titleholder as the one to beat.

"In the Nikkei Sho, I thought the others were going to catch him in the stretch but he reached down and found some more and held his ground. I was reminded again of just how strong he is," Kurita said.

"I saw the improvement I expected from him and have no worries heading into this race. He will be a popular pick and that brings a sense of responsibility so I'm hoping he'll do well."

As they say, though, they run these races for a reason. In this case, there are at least two good reasons to test Titleholder—the barrier draw and his top opponent, Deep Bond .

The No. 16 draw might not make much difference. While Titleholder does prefer to race prominently, there should be plenty of time to find position in a race that circles first the outer turf course, then the inner loop, and includes two climbs up the stretch incline.

Deep Bond might be more of a challenge. The 5-year-old son of Kizuna  may not have a group 1 win to his credit yet and finished fourth in the 2020 Kikuka Sho. But he was second in both this race and the Arima Kinen (G1) in 2021 and won the Qatar Prix Foy (G2) at ParisLongchamp before finishing 14th in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (G1).

Deep Bond won his 2022 debut, the Hanshin Daishoten (G2) at 3,000 meters, for the second straight year.

Trainer Ryuji Okubo said last year's travel and the tightener at Hanshin should stand Deep Bond in good stead.

"In last year's Tenno Sho (Spring), he missed the win by just a bit," Okubo said. "He still had some speed problems but, despite them, rose to the challenge. He traveled to France as well and I think he's a lot more mature this year. The goal for the spring was always this race, so we started him back in the Hanshin Daishoten (G2). It was a good race and he won it solidly."

Fortune continued to disfavor the likely favorites as Deep Bond was assigned the outside gate.