Aidan O'Brien is convinced Ryan Moore will ride Stone Age in the Cazoo Derby (G1) but the master trainer does not believe a record-extending ninth win in the Epsom Classic is a foregone conclusion, despite a clean sweep of the trials in the last week and the strong possibility he will saddle six runners June 4.
Changingoftheguard kicked off a wonderful week for Ballydoyle when a wide-margin winner of the Boodles Chester Vase Stakes (G3) Wednesday and 24 hours later Star of India landed the Homeserve Dee Stakes at the same venue. United Nations then won the SBK Derby Trial Stakes at Lingfield Saturday, but it was the performance of Stone Age in the Leopardstown Derby Trial Stakes (G3) Sunday, which impressed O'Brien and the bookmakers most of all.
When asked who he thought Moore would ride at Epsom, O'Brien replied: "I think he would find it hard to not ride the horse from yesterday (Stone Age)."
Stone Age was initially cut to 3-1 (from 12) by Paddy Power for the Derby following his authoritative Leopardstown display, but that price lasted little more than an hour as he was shortened further to 5-2.
The strapping son of Galileo has now firmly established himself as the Ballydoyle number one and, despite the fact he was 0-5 as a 2-year-old, O'Brien was not taken aback by the manner of victory on Sunday.
"No, he didn't really surprise me," O'Brien said of Stone Age's explosive Leopardstown performance. "We always thought he was a very high-class horse.
"If you look back at his runs, the day he was beaten in the group race at Leopardstown he was staying on all the way to the line. In France over a mile and a quarter on soft ground he ran on all the way to the line as well. If you look at what happened to these horses in their races (at two), you can always see there is much better to come.
Leopardstown Racecourse
"Leopardstown is a big, open galloping track. At Chester the horses were turning, it's a different test to Leopardstown. It's hard not to be impressed with Stone Age. You'd like to have something to have led him, but there was no point in messing him about.
"Ryan let him bowl along as he has a lot of experience at two and he was happy to get a lead at two. He'd have learned a lot last year. We were running him and teaching him. He learned a lot in those races. I'd imagine Ryan will find it hard not to ride him (at Epsom)."
Reflecting on potential tactics at Epsom, O'Brien added: "We know the way they will be ridden if they all run. Changingoftheguard will go forward, as will Stone Age. Star Of India will go forward, but he is a little lazy so might tuck in and take a lead. United Nations seemed to stay well and will go forward as well."
Bluegrass is set to take on Desert Crown in the May 13 Dante Stakes (G2) at York and will be the sole Ballydoyle representative in that group 2. His Derby participation will depend on how he gets on there, while, if Point Lonsdale is to contest the Epsom Classic, he will go straight there with O'Brien expecting a big improvement from his tame QIPCO Two Thousand Guineas (G1) effort where he trailed in tenth behind Coroebus .
O'Brien is seeking a tenth win in the Cazoo Oaks (G1) and a third victory on the trot and Tuesday shot to the summit of the market when third in the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas (G1) at Newmarket.
O'Brien is adamant the extra emphasis on stamina at Epsom will play to her strengths but before that, the May 22 Irish One Thousand Guineas (G1) at the Curragh could be on the agenda.
O'Brien said: "Tuesday's not 3-years-old until the first week of June, she's only a baby. The Guineas would suggest she is crying out for a step up in trip. We are thinking the Irish Guineas into the Oaks like her sister (Minding) did. A lot of those nice fillies did that. They are fit and conditioned going there. When there are two weeks between the two races there's a chance of doing it."
Tuesday is generally 7-2 favorite for the Oaks, with stablemate Concert Hall as short as 8-1 following her winning reappearance at Navan.