Making the Grade: Mubtaahij

Mubtaahij before heading out to the track for the UAE Derby. (Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing)
Making the Grade, which will run through the 2015 Belmont Stakes, focuses on the winners of the big races, usually from the previous weekend, who could impact the Triple Crown. We’ll be taking a close look at impressive winners and evaluating their chances to win important races based upon ability, running style, connections (owner, trainer, jockey) and pedigree. 
This week we take a closer look at Mubtaahij, winner of the $2-million United Arab Emirates Derby on March 28 at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai. 

Few 2015 Kentucky Derby contenders will bring more intrigue to the starting gate on May 2, and it’s probably safe to say few horses will be as polarizing among handicappers. Can a horse ship in from Dubai and win the Kentucky Derby? Well, it hasn’t happened yet, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be done. Shipping more than 7,300 miles to compete in what is arguably the most difficult race in North America to win is no small task, but it will take a special racehorse to pull it off. Let’s take a look at Mubtaahij and try to make an educated guess regarding whether he is the one.

Mubtaahij
Bay Colt
Sire (Father): Dubawi
Dam (Mother): Pennegale, by Pennekamp
Owner: Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum
Breeder: Dunmore Stud (Ire.)
Trainer: Mike de Kock

Ability: Bred by Dunmore Stud, Mubtaahij was a $599,760 purchase at the 2013 Arqana Deauville August yearling sale.
After unplaced finishes in his first two career starts on grass in England, trainer Mike de Kock took him to Dubai, where he made five starts at Meydan from Dec. 31 through the UAE Derby on March 28. The surface switch was an instant success as he earned a breakthrough maiden win by three-quarters of a length in a 1,600-meter (about one mile) race and then came back two weeks later to win by five going 1,400 meters (about seven furlongs). From there, de Kock tested Mubtaahij in stakes company and he finished second by a head to Maftool in the United Arab Emirates Two Thousand Guineas. A 2 ½-length win when stretching out to 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles) in the Al Bastakiya set up Mubtahiij for the UAE Derby and he romped by eight lengths as the heavy favorite to punch his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.
$2-MILLION UAE DERBY

In re-watching the Al Bastakiya and UAE Derby, it seems clear that we are seeing an improving 3-year-old who still has some maturing to do. He’s got a burst of speed that looks special, and that was clear in the Al Bastakiya even though he lugged in a little bit after taking charge in the stretch. Mubtaahij again showed a powerful turn of foot when taking command after a perfect stalking trip in the UAE Derby, but he failed to switch leads in the stretch — when horses race on the turn they switch to their inside leg as the lead and then once they straighten in the stretch switch to the outside leg which often allows them to unleash another gear.
Lugging in and failing to switch leads might seem relatively minor, but while Mubtaahij can get away with that against smaller, less talented fields in Dubai, he probably won’t be able to do so in the Kentucky Derby against what appears to be a very talented group of U.S.-based 3-year-olds.
Running style: One big plus is that we know Mubtaahij doesn’t mind a little dirt kicked in his face when racing on the inside behind a group of opponents.
Mubtaahij rated just off the pace in his previous two wins before he was angled out in the stretch for his winning bid. That stalking style is a solid one for the Kentucky Derby and one many other horses and jockeys will seek — imagine 8-10 trainers telling their riders to looks for a ground-saving trip just behind the early leaders but limited space available.
Because of that, the big concern I have is whether Mubtaahij possesses the cruising speed to track just behind a swifter pace than he saw in either the Al Bastakiya or UAE Derby. If not, he probably will need to start his rally earlier, perhaps midway on the final turn, which would mean he needs to be able to not only accelerate but sustain that burst for longer than his previous races.
If he does have the cruising speed to map out an ideal stalking trip, I think he’s a legitimate threat in the Derby. If not, I envision a bid that puts him into contention but dulls his closing kick late in the race. That could be problematic given his other instances of immaturity in the stretch.

Previous Making the Grades

Competitive Edge
American Pharoah
Carpe Diem
Daredevil
Texas Red
Ocho Ocho Ocho
El Kabeir
Leave the Light On
Nasa
Dortmund
Calculator
International Star
Upstart
Ocean Knight
Far From Over
Metaboss
Far Right
Materiality
Firing Line
Frosted

Connections: Trainer Mike de Kock has earned a reputation as one of the finest trainers on the planet. He is an eight-time champion trainer in his native South Africa who is approaching his 100th career Group 1 victory.
He sent out his first official starter in 1988 and has trained more than 2,500 winners during a career that includes victories in every major race in his country.
De Kock earned his first Group 1 win in 1989 with Evening Mist and has conditioned stars such as Horse Chestnut, Ipi Tombe, Irridescence and Igugu. He is the second-most successful trainer in the history of the Dubai Racing Carnival behind Godolphin trainer Saeed bin Suroor, and Mubtaahij was his fourth UAE Derby winner.
De Kock has never had a starter in the Kentucky Derby.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum is the Minister of Land Affairs in Dubai, a position he has proudly held since 1971. He is the cousin Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum, founder of global racing icon Godolphin Racing and the ruler of Dubai. Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum picked up his first winner in 1996 with Map of Stars and also raced 2007 United Arab Emirates Triple Crown winner Asiatic Boy, who finished second to Curlin in the 2008 Dubai World Cup.
Christophe Soumillon is a Belgian jockey who has enjoyed success on the international stage. Born in a racing family, Soumillon's father was a steeplechase jockey. He started out as an apprentice at Chantilly Racecourse in France and has gone on to capture such races as the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Irish Oaks, Queen Anne Stakes and Breeders' Cup Turf.
Soumillon was champion apprentice in 1999 and was French champion jockey with 207 wins in 2003. Soumillon has won five races on the same day on multiple occasions, tying the all-time French record. He has never had a mount in the Kentucky Derby.
Pedigree: On the surface, it appears that Mubtaahij does not have a prototypical Kentucky Derby pedigree from the perspective of surface. Bred in Ireland, Mubtaahij is by top stallion Dubawi, whose best runners have come almost exclusively on grass, although he is the sire of 2012 Dubai World Cup (at that time on a synthetic surface) winner Monterosso and 2015 Dubai World Cup winner Prince Bishop (on the new dirt surface).
PRINCE BISHOP AFTER WINNING THE DUBAI WORLD CUP

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
In fairness, there are not a ton of opportunities for progeny of European stallions on dirt. And, while Dubawi was a Grade 1 winner on turf in Ireland and France, including a victory in the 2005 Boylesports Irish Two Thousand Guineas, his sire, Dubai Millennium won the Dubai World Cup on dirt and was by top U.S. stallion Seeking the Gold. A multiple Grade 1 winner on dirt, Seeking the Gold was runner-up in the 1988 Breeders’ Cup Classic, Travers Stakes and Haskell Invitational Stakes.
Dubawi definitely provides a class and stamina boost as well with 95 stakes winners (9.9%) from 959 foals of racing age, according to Equineline stats, plus an average lifetime winning distance of 8.51 furlongs (or 1 1/16 miles). 
In short, Dubawi is an outstanding European sire who hails from the very-U.S. and very-dirt Mr. Prospector sire line.
The bottom half of this pedigree also unveils some reason for excitement. Mubtaahij is one of six winners from as many starters out of the Pennekamp mare Pennegale, whose three stakes winners to date also include Group 1 winner and European champion Lily of the Valley and multiple stakes-winning sprinter Calbuco.
Pennekamp was a multiple Group 1 winner at up to a mile when winning the English Two Thousand Guineas in 1995 and provides more class than stamina as a broodmare sire. But Mubtaahij’s half-sister (same dam [mother], different sire [father]) Lily of the Valley, by Galileo, was a Group 1 winner in France at 2,000 meters (1 ¼ miles) in a race in which she defeated 2011 U.S. champion turf female Stacelita.
Mubtaahij’s grandam (maternal grandmother), Gale Warning, won her only start as a 2-year-old in a sprint and produced two stakes winners and a pair of stakes-placed runners. His third dam (maternal great-grandmother), Gay Apparel, won a pair of stakes sprinting at Woodbine, produced three stakes winners and is a full-sister (same dam, same sire) to two stakes winners.
It’s ironic that I went into this pedigree expecting to have some concerns about surface for Mubtaahij but came away more concerned with his ability to handle 1 ¼ miles.
MUBTAAHIJ WINNING THE UAE DERBY

Photo by Penelope P. Miller/America's Best Racing
Given the UAE Derby win came at 1,900 meters (about 1 3/16 miles), Mubtaahij only has to traverse an extra sixteenth of a mile. But with the expected faster pace, some signs of immaturity and a trip of more than 7,000 miles from Dubai to Louisville, it could be an issue.
Mubtaahij figures to be one of the more polarizing horses leading up to the Derby. There is plenty to like. He is being handled by an exceptional trainer, boasts a classy pedigree and has the turn of foot that is a common trait in Kentucky Derby winners.
There also are some maturity concerns plus the fact that no UAE Derby winner from six starters has finished in the top three in the Kentucky Derby.
No matter which side of the Mubtaahij argument you happen to be on, there is sure to be plenty of opportunity for debate.