Modern Games Returns in French Two Thousand Guineas

The received wisdom that the Emirates Poule d'Essai des Poulains (G1), the de facto French Two Thousand Guineas, is a draw race stands up to scrutiny.

Across the seven runnings held at ParisLongchamp over the last ten years, if you had picked out a horse at random you would have had about a 5-2 chance of that horse making the first four. Had you been offered only those drawn in stall six or lower, the odds would tumble down to 11-8.

The main reason for this can be easily demonstrated. Over a mile of Longchamp's Grande course, runners spend more than three furlongs on the long, sweeping turn that brings them towards the false straight. When almost two-fifths of a race is spent on the turn, you do not want to be wide. To compound matters, those posted out wide only have a bit more than a furlong to put things right before the field starts to turn.

It is good news for Godolphin's favorite Modern Games , who has been drawn in stall four of 16. He took off last autumn, culminating in a stylish win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Del Mar, his last start. Beating up American turf horses is one thing, coming back for a European Classic will be harder, but his post position and straightforward tactics put a lot of factors in Modern Games' favor.

"Modern Games has done well from two to three and I can't fault his preparation—he's done everything we've asked of him," said trainer Charlie Appleby. "We're very happy with his draw in stall four and there should be no excuses."

Racing Post Ratings suggest that Bayside Boy 's third-place finish in the Darley Dewhurst Stakes (G1), 2 1/2 lengths behind Native Trail , is a performance of equal standard to what Modern Games did at Del Mar. The disparity in their prices at the time of writing is down mostly to the draw. Bayside Boy is in 14, so Olivier Peslier will have to use all of his guile to get an advantageous position.

Most of the home challengers have prepped on the racecourse, as is the done thing in France. The Prix de Fontainebleau (G3) over this course and distance is one of the major trials—winners Brametot  and Persian King  have followed up in this race in the last five years —and it was won this year by Welwal . He took that race like he had a little more up his sleeve, but winning standards over the last ten years suggest he needs to improve by around 10 lbs.

It is also notable that Cristian Demuro has chosen to ride Lassaut instead. The latter has not run in a Pattern race yet, but his latest win on his third start came in a conditions race against plenty of promising sorts. He still showed signs of greenness but made up ground extremely easily and looked well on top. The vote of confidence from his rider and favorable draw in stall 3 makes him a fascinating contender.

Jane Chapple-Hyam enjoyed a group 1 breakthrough with Saffron Beach  at the end of last season and now takes aim at a first Classic winner with the unexposed Claymore .

His connections opted for Longchamp over Newmarket and almost everything is in his favor here, except for a "shocking" draw. He comes out of the widest berth in 16 and only Lope De Vega  (2010) has overcome a similar draw this century.