Guide to Building a Kentucky Derby Exacta Ticket

California Chrome pulled away to win the 2014 Kentucky Derby as the favorite, but the exacta was especially rewarding with longshot Commanding Curve rallying for second. (PHoto by Eclipse Sportswire)
The exacta is one of the most popular bets in horse racing and, in recent years, it has also been one of the most profitable plays on Kentucky Derby day. Since the exacta wagering pools are so massive - topping $23-million in each of the past three years – there’s ample money to be collected if you’re fortunate enough to pick the top two finishers in the Derby.
Sure, selecting the first- and second-place finishers in a field of 20 horses sounds a daunting task but there are sneaky ways to increase your odds of hitting a Derby exacta.
In the 2014 Kentucky Derby, the average bettor could've easily come up with the winner, California Chrome. His odds were 5-to-2 and he returned $7 for every $2 wagered on him. On the other hand, a relatively small number of keen-eyed handicappers predicted that 37.80-to-1 shot Commanding Curve would sneak into the exacta, which paid an eye-popping $340 for a $2 wager.
Yet, despite Commanding Curve being a tough horse to come up with, I know a lot of people who hit the exacta. In fact, virtually everyone I know who liked California Chrome hit the exacta. That's because they did something that is often wise to do in a race where anything can happen; they keyed California Chrome over ALL. That means they bet a $2 exacta with California Chrome on top (to win) over all other horses in the field. Since there were 18 other horses who ran last year, the ticket cost $36 ($2 x each of the 18 combinations). Had anyone just bet $36 to win on California Chrome, the return would have been $126.00, far less than the $340.00 the exacta returned.
The 2013 Kentucky Derby further demonstrates the power of the “ALL” play on your Derby exacta tickets. In that race, Orb won at odds of 5.40-to-1 and returned $12.80 for a $2 win wager. Again, the exacta key Orb over ALL ticket would have cost $36 and, when 34.50-to-1 shot Golden Soul ran into the exacta, the ticket paid a whopping $981.60. Not bad, considering the same $36 to win on Orb returned just $230.40.
ORB WINNING 2013 KENTUCKY DERBY

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
So, you’ve got your Derby exacta betting strategy, right? Not so fast.
The past two years represent dream scenarios for anyone who implemented the discussed strategy, however, the Derby doesn't always work out so that a favorite wins and a longshot finishes second. In 2012, I’ll Have Another won the Derby at a big number and paid $32.60 for $2. Unlike the past two years, a favorite (Bodemeister) finished second and the exacta returned just $306.60. It was a still a nice payday if you had it, but a win bet (equal to the cost of the exacta with ALL) on I’ll Have Another paid $619.40, more than twice as much as the return on the exacta.
The same thing played out in 2011 when 20.90-to-1 longshot Animal Kingdom won and 8.50-to-1 shot Nehro finished second. The exacta payout? $329.80. An equal win bet on Animal Kingdom? $788.40. This race again proved that simply keying a horse over ALL isn’t always the right play.
I’LL HAVE ANOTHER (outside) OUTFINISHED FAVORED BODEMEISTER IN 2012

Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
After looking at the numbers, it seems pretty evident to that the time to punch an exacta-key-with-all ticket is when there’s a favorite that you're extremely confident in, like California Chrome, for example. The logic there being that a win bet that costs the same as the exacta ticket (let's say $36) will be capped at a payoff of about $150. On the other hand, the potential for a massive score is at least possible on your exacta ticket if a longshot finishes second.
Going into this year’s Derby, many have zeroed in on three top horses: American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem. If you have a strong feeling about any of those horses, I would suggest keying that horse over ALL in the exacta. To reiterate the point just made, a $36 win bet on American Pharoah (at 5-to-2 or 3-to-1) won't return more than $150. However, if you play him in an exacta over ALL and he wins, while anyone aside from the favorites or a few of the mid-priced horses finishes second, that exacta could pay you a lot more than $150.
If you like two of the big horses that are expected to take a lot of money, you could play a $20 exacta box with the two horses, for example American Pharoah and Dortmund. Then again, we rarely see two big favorites finish one-two in the Kentucky Derby. There are just too many horses and too many variables to consider. Invariably, at least one of the favorites, if not multiple favorites, run into trip trouble or simply don’t fire in the Derby, which leaves the door open to longshots.
I can’t confidently recommend an exacta play before seeing the final field and post-position draw. However, as a player who tends to gravitate toward longshots, I can say that I’ve got my eyes on some prices.
Among the longshots who I think have a shot are Danzig Moon and Far Right. Having gone through this exercise, it seems more prudent to put win and place money on those horses to win, rather than investing heavily in an exacta that requires them to win.
Remember, even if one of those longshots wins and a favorite like American Pharoah or Dortmund finishes second, the exacta won't pay nearly as much as a large win bet on one of those horses.
SANTA ANITA DERBY VICTOR DORTMUND

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