Preakness Show Goes On Without Kentucky Derby Winner

It took the Boston Red Sox 86 years to finally exorcise "The Curse of the Bambino."

For the sake of Maryland racing, hopefully it will not take that long for the Preakness Stakes (G1) to rid itself of "The Curse of Justify  ."

Back in 2018, there was bliss for the middle jewel of the Triple Crown with a crowd of 134,487 on hand despite the rainy conditions.

When Justify stormed out of the fog to win the Preakness en route to becoming the 13th 3-year-old to sweep the three legs of the series, he also became the 22nd straight winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1) to show up two weeks later at Pimlico Race Course to continue his quest for racing immortality. A Triple Crown bid continuing in the Preakness was as sure of a thing as there could be in racing.

But ever since Justify left town, let's just say, "Baltimore, we have a problem."

In 2019, the first horse across the finish line in the Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security  , was disqualified and placed 17th. He dropped off the Triple Crown trail after that. The horse elevated to first by the stewards, Country House  , became ill after the Kentucky Derby and never raced again after wearing the blanket of roses. 

The following year, the Preakness landed the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner. Only this time, the world was in the grips of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, and the Triple Crown was delayed and the deck shuffled so that the Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1) kicked off the series in June and the Preakness ended it in October. In between, Authentic   beat Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law  , in the Kentucky Derby, eliminating the chance for a Triple Crown bid at Pimlico. There were no fans in attendance but there was a thrilling finish with the Ken McPeek-trained filly Swiss Skydiver  beating eventual Horse of the year Authentic by a neck.

In 2021, the question of whether or not the Preakness featured the Kentucky Derby victor was fodder for debate. A week after Medina Spirit  won the Kentucky Derby for trainer Bob Baffert and owner Amr Zedan news broke that the 3-year-old had failed a post-race drug and was in jeopardy of having his Run for the Roses win stripped at some point.

The runner-up across the wire, Mandaloun , skipped the Preakness. (This February, he was awarded first place in the Derby after a long-awaited decision by stewards and the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission.)

Last year's race created a situation in which picograms were a more popular topic of conversation around the Preakness Stakes barn than speed figures. 

As it turned out, Medina Spirit ran third in the Preakness in front of a COVID-19 crowd capped at 10,000 to end the speculation about the Triple Crown, and Medina Spirit was ultimately disqualified from his Run for the Roses win. As for Baffert, the all-time leader in Triple Crown wins with 16 and Justify's trainer, he was barred from the Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs Inc. tracks for two years, suspended by the KHRC until early July and therefore barred from being at Saturday's Preakness, and facing official verification of a two-year ban by the New York Racing Association.

Now in 2022, after Rich Strike  shocked the world by winning the Kentucky Derby at 80-1 odds, he delivered another shocker when his connections announced their colt would be a bypass the Preakness and would sit out the 1 3/16-mile test to await the Belmont Stakes.

Goodbye, rags to riches story. Goodbye, Triple Crown bid. Hello, Curse.

"Most of our team was disappointed," 1/ST Racing CEO Craig Fravel said about the defection of Rich Strike. "You always want the Kentucky Derby winner. Personally from working with the Breeders' Cup and losing some big horses over the years, I learned you are going to get your hopes up and then things happen. I tend to be patient and understanding about it and try not to get too up or down because I know how things change with these horses.

"I've been with the company for two years and this will be my third Preakness, and I feel incredibly lucky to do what we've been doing and to put on a great event like this so I don't feel picked on. When you do things long enough you realize these things happen and I believe we have some compelling storylines attached to the race and some great entertainment attached to it."

The admirable patience of Fravel and other officials of 1/ST Racing and the Maryland Jockey Club, which owns Pimlico, has surely been tested in recent years, but at least, much like 2020, they have on their hands the next best thing to a no-strings-attached, bona fide Triple Crown.

Reflective of Fravel's words, when 86-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas decided to enter his filly, Briland Farm's Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Secret Oath  in the Preakness, it gave the nine-horse race some much-needed vitality with a Gal vs.The Guys storyline.

"If you don't have the filly in here, the mood is zilch," Lukas said of the Battle of the Sexes. "At least we have a little bit of interest and it brought (the media) out of the woodwork. Louis Cella at Oaklawn Park told me he thought there were 20,000 more people (to see her in the Arkansas Derby, G1) because the race was pretty vanilla, which this one is too. You have Epicenter, and then where do you go? You put her in there and you have some handicapping deals, some exactas, and trifectas you might play."

Secret Oath, a daughter of Arrogate who was a wide third against males two starts back in the April 2 Arkansas Derby, is listed as the 9-2 third-choice Saturday and will be tested foremost by Winchell Thoroughbreds' Epicenter , a son of Not This Time   who was a very game second in the Kentucky Derby. Pegged as the 6-5 favorite, Epicenter rates as the standout in a Preakness field that also includes 7-2 second choice Early Voting , a son of Gun Runner  , and Simplification  (6-1), a Florida-bred Not This Time colt who ran fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Typically that type of lineup adds some electricity to the Triple Crown atmosphere, but on this occasion, the results on what looms a hot and sticky mid-90s day at Pimlico will only influence Eclipse Award voters.

"I think (the media) would have a way better line on that than I do," said Steve Asmussen, who trains Epicenter, when asked about the mood at the 147th Preakness. "With us, we're concerned with things we have control over: the condition of our horses and getting another top-level performance out of them. From this year's results in the Derby, you won't take anyone for granted and you'll try to cover your bases to be prepared for everything."

While a Triple Crown is no longer up for grabs in 2022, it doesn't mean that the topic became an afterthought when Rich Strike's defection was announced. As the prospective starters prepared for their showdown in the Preakness without a Kentucky Derby winner in the picture, some racing fans and industry members pointed to Rich Strike's defection as a troubling sign of the times that paints a gloomy future for the current three races in five weeks format. When the connections of Rich Strike elected to effectively say "thanks but no thanks" to giving their horse just two weeks of rest it fed beliefs that at a time when spacing of races is a major concern to horsemen more time between the races is needed for the good of the Triple Crown—even though there have been two Triple Crown winners in the last seven years.

Barring those that had physical setbacks, the last Kentucky Derby that targeted the Belmont over the Preakness occurred 40 years ago when Gato Del Sol, a 21-1 winner of the Run for the Roses, did so, finishing second in the Belmont. Losing horses from the Derby, particularly those from New York-based stables, have been more apt to await the Belmont.

"We've taken a look at it," Fravel said about the Triple Crown structure. "Whether we move (the Preakness) a week back, I don't think it will make a big difference in horses wheeling back and that's just my opinion. A guy who doesn't want to run back in two weeks probably won't run back in three either, and the further you push things out, the more attrition there might be. Just because it's a long-standing tradition it doesn't mean you can't change it, but running in a race as opposed to working isn't the worst thing in the world."

If anything at all, the Preakness will tell us more about a 3-year-old crop that served up more questions than answers at the Kentucky Derby. Was the first Saturday in May just a glitch for Epicenter, the Kentucky Derby favorite off his sharp wins in the Risen Star Stakes Presented by Lamarque Ford (G2) and Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2)? On the third Saturday in May will he showcase why he was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby?  Is Secret Oath, who is bidding to become the seventh filly to win the Preakness, something extremely special? Will Klaravich Stables' Early Voting remind us that his trainer, Chad Brown, can turn out top-level turf AND dirt winners?

Will Armagnac  (12-1) or Creative Minister  (10-1) make a successful jump from the allowance ranks to an American classic and become stars overnight? Will the heat help the chances of Florida-based entrants Simplification and Skippylongstocking  (20-1)? Will seemingly overmatched longshots Happy Jack  (30-1) or Fenwick  (50-1) follow Rich Strike's lead and illustrate how the totally unexpected can somehow happen, even in the best of races?

We'll know those answers Saturday, when, in perhaps the best news of all about the 2022 Preakness, a sense of normalcy will return. There will be no limits on the number of fans, an Infield Fest for musical entertainment Saturday after Friday's Preakness LIVE extravaganza, and an exciting day of racing capable of resurrecting some fond memories.

"It was a lot easier to get in and out of traffic in 2020," said McPeek, who trains Creative Minister. "But it's certainly like old times. I brought Tejano Run here in 1995 and it was a similar feeling. Wayne had Thunder Gulch and Timber Country. I put a few miles on since then. A few belt loops are missing and I shaved my head. But Wayne's still here."

All that's missing is the Kentucky Derby winner.

Curses!

Entries: Preakness S. (G1)

Pimlico Race Course, Saturday, May 21, 2022, Race 13

• Grade I
• 1 3/16m
• Dirt
• $1,500,000
• 3 yo
• 7:01 PM (local)

PP	Horse	Jockey	Wgt	Trainer	M/L
1	1Simplification (FL)	John R. Velazquez	126	Antonio Sano	6/1
2	2Creative Minister (KY)	Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr.	126	Kenneth G. McPeek	10/1
3	3Fenwick (KY)	Florent Geroux	126	Kevin McKathan	50/1
4	4Secret Oath (KY)	Luis Saez	121	D. Wayne Lukas	9/2
5	5Early Voting (KY)	Jose L. Ortiz	126	Chad C. Brown	7/2
6	6Happy Jack (KY)	Tyler Gaffalione	126	Doug F. O'Neill	30/1
7	7Armagnac (KY)	Irad Ortiz, Jr.	126	Tim Yakteen	12/1
8	8Epicenter (KY)	Joel Rosario	126	Steven M. Asmussen	6/5
9	9Skippylongstocking (KY)	Junior Alvarado	126	Saffie A. Joseph, Jr.	20/1