Preakness Strains Under Pressure to Change

Phil Mickelson is not defending his title in the PGA Championship this weekend because he said some things and did some things that people did not like.

Lewis Hamilton, the seven-time Formula 1 champion, might be disqualified from driving in the Monaco Grand Prix next weekend because he is refusing to remove a piece of body jewelry.

Daniil Medvedev, the No. 2 ranked men's tennis player in the world, has been banned from Wimbledon beginning next month because he is Russian, and Russia is waging an unprovoked war against neighboring Ukraine.

Let's see, what else. Oh, right ... the Derby winner is passing on the Preakness.

Those of us who could not quite believe our eyes as Rich Strike  mowed down Epicenter  and Zandon  at the end of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) May 7 were hoping the Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico May 21 would clear things up. Either the Derby was a hallucination, brought on by store-bought mint juleps and suspicious deviled eggs, or it was the dawning of the Rich Strike era in horse racing, and everyone had better tie on tight.

Then the shoe dropped, and Rich Strike's people decided to pass on the Preakness to point for the June 11 Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1). The last time that happened was 1982 (gas was $1.31 a gallon). Before that, 1959 (were there cars?).

Making radical changes in anything based on a sample of three over a period of 63 years is risky business. I'm not sure it would hold up in statistical court. Still, there are rumblings anew to rearrange the deck chairs of the Triple Crown, especially since it was primarily the two-week turnaround from the Derby to the Preakness that was cited in the decision for Rich Strike to stay home on Saturday. Presumably, that was also the reasoning in the case of Derby starters Zandon, Mo Donegal , Barber Road , Tawny Port , Smile Happy , Tiz the Bomb , Zozos , Classic Causeway , Taiba , Crown Pride , Messier , White Abarrio , Charge It , Cyberknife , Pioneer of Medina , and Summer Is Tomorrow  as well.

Or maybe not. Maybe it is time that we stopped conflating the popularity and inordinate success of the Kentucky Derby with the rest of the Triple Crown. The Preakness is popular only if the Derby winner shows up to run. The Belmont is popular only if the Preakness winner wins the Derby.

Justify  's sweep of the Triple Crown in 2018 marked the end of a century since the series was recognized as a noteworthy achievement. All things considered, that might have been a perfect time to take a deep breath and decide what the Triple Crown should look like in today's world. I hesitate to use the word "modern," because no one would ever brand horse racing with such a slur.

The two loudest arguments against tinkering with the spacing of the races seems to be these:

          —Why would you want to make it easier for a horse to win all three?

          —Why would you want future winners of the Triple Crown saddled with an asterisk?

The Roman philosopher Cicero wrote, "To know nothing of what happened before you were born is to remain forever a child." The thought keeps coming to mind as pundits of more recent generations kneel in worship of the present-day Triple Crown schedule. To be consistent, even if a change is not made in the current gaps, there should be asterisks slapped all over the history of Triple Crown winners.

Sir Barton won the Derby on Saturday and the Preakness the following Wednesday. Gallant Fox won the Preakness before the Derby. Omaha and Whirlaway won the Preakness one week after the Derby, then squeezed in another race during their one-month wait to the Belmont. War Admiral and Assault won their crowns with gaps of one week and three weeks. Count Fleet had two weeks between each. Citation had it easiest of all, with two weeks after the 1948 Derby to the Preakness and a month to the Belmont. Big Cy was hardly a slacker, though. He tossed in an 11-length win in the Jersey Derby during Memorial Day weekend. Doesn't matter. Asterisk.

The idea that the Triple Crown would be harder to win if there is more time between the races misses the point. To state the obvious, the Triple Crown can only be won if a horse wins the first two jewels, and it has proven remarkably easy to nail those first two. Of the 40 Derby winners who have run in the Preakness since Affirmed won the 1978 Triple Crown, a whopping 15—or 37.5%—have added the Preakness two weeks later. I thought this was supposed to be hard?

The Preakness, stocked with watered-down fields of horses who were never in the Derby conversation to begin with, has become the sacrificial lamb positioned only to set things up for a big promotional payday in New York at the Belmont Stakes. Yes, winning the Triple Crown should be hard. But why shouldn't all three races in the series strive for the best possible fields to ensure the severity of the challenge?

On May 14, a couple of days after Rich Strike's people begged off Baltimore's soft shell crabs, NBC Sports racing analyst Randy Moss tweeted the following:

It boggles my mind when smart people refuse to see simple facts. Many of today's top horses that run well in the Derby skip the Preakness because trainers dislike the 2-week gap. That's a fact. This is bad for the Triple Crown and thus bad for the sport. Another fact. So fix it.

— Randy Moss (@randy_moss_TV) May 15, 2022

"It boggles my mind when smart people refuse to see simple facts," Moss wrote. "Many of today's top horses that run well in the Derby skip the Preakness because trainers dislike the two-week gap. That's a fact. This is bad for the Triple Crown and thus bad for the sport. Another fact. So fix it."

It makes perfect sense that someone working for NBC would be frustrated that the rug has been pulled out from under the single most important feature of the Preakness telecast. "Will the Derby winner do it again?" is always the storyline, and it would have been especially juicy this time around, given the 80-1 odds of Rich Strike. The consolation prize of Derby runner-up Epicenter facing Secret Oath , winner of the Kentucky Oaks (G1), is attractive only to true aficionados. Unsuspecting fair-weather fans will tune into the broadcast on Saturday and wonder, "Where's that crazy red horse?" then flip to another channel.

"If I hear someone say one more time that it would be a disaster to move the Preakness because the Triple Crown is supposed to be tough, supposed to be difficult, I want to just throw a rock through the TV," Moss said. 

I'm guessing he has a real nice TV.

"We want to make it more competitive in all three races, don't we?" Moss went on. "And how do we do that without making the Preakness more attractive to trainers who have an aversion to the two-week gap after running in the Derby?"

Of course, NBC has a huge dog in the hunt, especially since the network is losing the rights to the Belmont Stakes after this year's running. (NBC has the Derby and the Preakness through 2025.) Fox Sports will commence an eight-year run with NYRA beginning in 2023, which places more pressure on NBC to offer viewers the most attractive Preakness field possible. 

"I'll put it this way," Moss said. "What's good for the Preakness is good for NBC."

Not much has gone well for the Preakness since Justify emerged from a fog bank to win narrowly in 2018. Maximum Security, disqualified from first in the 2019 Derby, skipped the rest of the Triple Crown. Because of COVID shutdowns and restrictions, the 2020 Preakness was run on Oct. 3, and it took the victory of Swiss Skydiver  to give the odd event a glimmer of attention. Last year's Preakness was back on schedule, but it was haunted by the presence of Medina Spirit and his overage of a controlled substance from the Derby. Only two others from the 19-horse Derby field ran in the 2021 Preakness.

"In my opinion, this will be the last year of the two-week gap between the Derby and the Preakness," Moss said. "I know the Maryland Jockey Club and 1/ST Racing are seriously considering moving the race. I think the only question will be if it is done with the cooperation of NYRA and their scheduling of the Belmont, or if they do it unilaterally."

The idea that changing the dates and conditions of championship sporting events harms their significance does not hold water. The Super Bowl has moved a month since its inception. Anyone take a look at the evolution of Major League Baseball's postseason lately? The PGA Championship, being played this weekend in Tulsa, Okla., has been all over the calendar, and still it abides. Its purse of $12 million has attracted 47 of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings (Mickelson is ranked 60th).

Fans have every right to feel invested in all aspects of the Triple Crown. Immersion in all things Triple Crown is practically a birthright of the sport. But there will be no fans' poll to seek feedback on a change in the Triple Crown schedule. Twitter and Facebook can howl to the moon. It won't matter. The decision will be made in closed rooms and Zooms among 1/ST Racing, NBC, and, as an interested party, the NYRA. 

The relative dates of the Triple Crown races have not changed since 1969. This could be defined as either an ongoing respect for tradition or the effects of stubborn inertia. In the end, there is ample evidence that the Triple Crown will never change. Until it does.