The first two legs of the Triple Crown offered a pair of contrasting opinions about the essence of speed.
In the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (G1), speed killed. Summer Is Tomorrow set incinerating fractions of :21.78 and :45.36, explaining why he finished 20th and last, and the horses who were in the top seven after a half-mile finished no better than 10th.
Meanwhile, 80-1 shot Rich Strike shocked the world with his winning rally from 18th.
Two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes (G1), speed thrived.
Early Voting sat a comfortable second behind 18-1 shot Armagnac through an opening quarter-mile in :24.32 before taking over entering the stretch and holding sway for a 1 1/4-length victory over Kentucky Derby runner-up Epicenter .
The third jewel will be contested June 11 at Belmont Park, and in the 1 1/2-mile, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes Presented by NYRA Bets (G1), once again early speed is a prime topic of conversation.
Much like the Preakness, the field of eight 3-year-olds entered June 7 in "The Test of the Champion" contains a paucity of early speed, with almost all of it belonging to We the People , the 2-1 favorite in the morning line.
Owned by WinStar Farm, CMNWLTH, Siena Farm, and famed chef Bobby Flay and bred by Henley Farms, the son of Constitution put on an eye-opening display of speed at Belmont Park in his last start. Running on a wet, sealed track labeled as "good" in the May 14 Peter Pan Stakes (G3), We the People took the lead shortly after the start in the 1 1/8-mile stepping stone to the Belmont and never relinquished it, motoring to a 10 1/4-length triumph over Golden Glider .
It was a lopsided victory that left quite an impression on Hall of Famer Mark Casse, who trains Golden Glider.
"If (We the People) can duplicate his performance in the Peter Pan, nobody's going to beat him," Casse said. "Our hope is that the slop moved him up and we have a chance. No one has a chance if he runs that race back."
Of course, the fact that Casse entered Gary Barber, Manfred Conrad, and Penny Conrad's Golden Glider (Ghostzapper ) in the Belmont (post 7, 20-1) reflects how he believes that a different surface (though there's rain in the forecast for Saturday) and three additional furlongs could be equalizers.
"He's not unbeaten," Casse said about We the People.
He's not, but trainer Rodolphe Brisset says his bay colt's lone loss should have a line crossed through it. Breaking from the outside post in a field of nine for the April 2 Arkansas Derby (G1), We the People's stakes debut saw him head to the post washy and then fade to seventh after losing ground while racing five wide early.
"He could not get a good position in the Arkansas Derby and was taken wide," Brisset said about his colt's only loss in four career starts. "We knew he was better than that, and when he ran so well in the Peter Pan we knew that one bad race could be forgiven."
Since the Peter Pan, the Kentucky-based Brisset has remained in New York with We the People.
"My wife is not happy with me being in New York, but I've built my schedule around him," the 34-year-old Brisset said.
We the People drew the rail for the 154th Belmont, and the way he has trained since the Peter Pan has only increased Brisset's optimism. "He's been showing me all the signs you want to see," Brisset said. "He has trained well, eaten well, has been moving well."
Helping the cause is a field of seven rivals that includes the formidable Mo Donegal and Rich Strike, both of whom have late speed and should not pose much of a threat to We the People in the early stages.
"It doesn't look like there's a lot of speed in the race," Brisset said. "We'll play the break and go from there."
Todd Pletcher trains Mo Donegal for Donegal Racing and Mike Repole. Pletcher, a three-time Belmont Stakes winner, has a similar view of the pace scenario, but realizes there's little he can do about it with his Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino (G2) winner or his other Belmont starter, the filly Nest .
"The pace is a concern," Pletcher said. "The misconception is that deep closers do well in the Belmont, but that's not always the case. Like all races it can be pace dependent, and if they go slow, that can present a problem. It concerns me that We the People can be the controlling speed. If no one goes with him and he settles, he can be very dangerous. If it rains, it will help him. The situation we are in with our horses is that they have their running style. I think they are capable of adapting if the pace is slow. They won't be as far back as usual, but neither one of them is the type that can set the pace, so that's out of our control, just like the weather."
Frontrunners won only three of the last 14 Triple Crown finales. Yet here's how dangerous speed can be in the Belmont: Horses who were first or second after the opening quarter-mile finished in the top two eight of those 14 times, and horses first, second, or third early finished in the top three in 10 of the last 14 Belmonts.
Flavien Prat, who rode We the People in the Peter Pan and Arkansas Derby, will be the one charged with nursing that speed and making sure there's enough left to cover the one-lap, 1 1/2-mile trip around Belmont Park. In his mind, while his horse is quick enough to set the pace, having a target to chase would not be a bad option at all.
"It's not like he needs the lead. He has sat just off the pace. If there is no speed, he can take the lead," Prat said. "The mile and a half is a question mark, but we're all in the same boat. The last race was very good."
The Belmont promises to be an acid test for Rich Strike, the $163.60 Kentucky Derby winner whose only other victory came in a maiden race at 2 in which he was claimed for $30,000 by trainer Eric Reed and owner Rick Dawson of RED-TR Racing. Kept out of the Preakness because Reed believes his horse needs more than two weeks between races, Rich Strike is seeking to become the first non-Triple Crown winner to capture the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont since Thunder Gulch in 1995.
"Everything worked out," Reed said about bypassing the Preakness. "We didn't skip the Preakness because this horse can't get beat in the Belmont. This is probably the hardest race for us with his running style. It just made more sense to do this. It's not his energy. I could have run in the Preakness and he'd be fine. It's mentally. This horse takes three or four weeks to get back on even keel, and if I ran him back in two weeks, he probably would have thrown in a bad race. (Trainer Chad Brown) did the right thing freshening his horse (Preakness winner Early Voting, who did not run in the Kentucky Derby), and we're doing the right thing. The only way to give him his best chance to win his next race was to give him time."
Rich Strike's development in the five weeks since his stunning victory on the first Saturday in May and the way he has trained at Belmont has given the impression that the 7-2 third choice in the morning line (post 4) may not be a one-hit wonder.
"He's adapted great here. He's done as good as ever since he got here. He's training better. He's more mature. He's a lot more relaxed coming and going to the track. He's all business, and when he starts his gallop, he's strong. He's more confident, if anything," said Reed, who is considering resting Rich Strike until the Aug. 27 Runhappy Travers Stakes (G1) after Saturday's race. "He likes this track. He's been training on a track in Kentucky (Mercury Equine Center) that's deep and heavy like this one for most of his career. He seems to skip across it."
Reed believes being closer to the early lead Saturday should not hurt the son of Keen Ice 's chances. "I think we'll be closer because of the pace," Reed said of the colt bred by Calumet Farm. "I think he's going to run a little different of a race than we've seen from him."
Although Sonny Leon, who had never won a graded stakes before the Derby, gave Rich Strike a masterful ride, his first appearance in the Belmont Stakes promises to present a unique challenge at such an unusually big oval.
"I will give Sonny credit that he studied Kentucky Derby races every night before the race," Reed said. "He's doing the same thing with the Belmont. Every night he calls me, and he's talked with (jockeys) Gary Stevens and Edgar Prado giving him advice, but (there's) nothing like getting on the track. He'll be galloping some horses Friday to get used to the track. He's done all his homework, but it's going to be a challenge. He has to know when to make his move. You can't move too soon at this track."
Mo Donegal (post 6), the 5-2 second choice, first showed his class by winning the 1 1/8-mile Remsen Stakes (G2) at 2 over subsequent Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) winner and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Zandon . Then he beat Early Voting in the Wood. Breaking awkwardly from the rail in the Kentucky Derby, he was 19th early and rallied 10-wide to finish a respectable fifth, a little less than four lengths behind Rich Strike. Yet on several levels, he's failed to generate as much attention as the other favorites heading into the Belmont.
"I think Mo Donegal is flying under the radar a little bit for a horse who, when you look back on it, ran a strong race in the Derby. I like the way he trained since then, and he broke his maiden here at Belmont," Pletcher said of an Uncle Mo colt bred by Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Farm. "He has a lot of things in his favor. The form has held up well for the Remsen and the Wood. We're pleased with him."
Like Pletcher's three Belmont winners (the filly Rags to Riches, Palace Malice , and Tapwrit ), Mo Donegal enters the Belmont with five weeks of rest.
So does Nest (post 3, 8-1), a filly owned by Repole, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, and Michael House. The Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) runner-up will try to emulate Rags to Riches' 2007 feat and become the fourth female to win the Belmont. She also was bred by Ashview and Colts Neck.
"(Running her in the Belmont) has been somewhat on our mind going back to November and December when she broke her maiden going a mile and a sixteenth and won the Demoiselle (at 1 1/8 miles)," Pletcher said. "So in January, we nominated her for the Belmont, not the Derby or the Preakness. This was the race we had in the back of our minds if she continued to develop and do well. She's strongly bred for this. All her breezes have been with Mo Donegal and she's been nose to nose with him every step of the way. She's been very energetic, enthusiastic and her appetite has been terrific. So, nothing she has done has discouraged us from continuing to think about the Belmont. You're taking a shot when you run a filly against colts, but we're comfortable with the distance, and that's the most important thing."
The rest of the field includes Fern Circle Stables, Back Racing, and Magdalena Racing's Creative Minister (post 5, 6-1), a Creative Cause colt who was third in the Preakness for trainer Ken McPeek; WSS Racing's Barber Road (post 8, 10-1), a son of Race Day trained by John Ortiz who was sixth in the Kentucky Derby; and Daniel Alonso's Skippylongstocking (post 2, 20-1), an Exaggerator 3-year-old who was fifth in the Preakness and third in the Wood for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.
"Timing is everything in this race," McPeek said. "You have eight jockeys, and this isn't a race they can practice. It's not like they write this race all the time at Belmont. Sometimes a guy can move too soon, or move too late. It's a rider's race and it will be interesting to see how it unfolds."
How it unfolds at the wire will surely be interesting. As for what happens when the gates open at 6:44 p.m. Saturday, there should be no mystery attached to it when a mile-and-a-half game of "catch me if you can" figures to unfold at Belmont Park.