Mother Earth, Saffron Beach Set for Cambridge Stage

When it comes to races on the straight track at Ascot Racecourse, everyone is in agreement that course form is vital. So maybe the June 15 Duke of Cambridge Stakes (G2) is an open-and-shut case: it will be won by Mother Earth .

Of the eight runners in the lineup, Mother Earth is the only horse to have recorded a Racing Post Rating in excess of 100 on the straight course at Ascot. That sets the standard.

Her sole run over a straight mile at this course resulted in a 3 3/4-length fifth behind Baaeed  in last year's Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (G1), and she was awarded an RPR of 115.

That is better than any other horse has managed to achieve at any track, bar Saffron Beach's 118 at Newmarket last year, but Saffron Beach  has a five-pound penalty for that group 1 success.



Mother Earth therefore has the right profile. A mile is her trip, she has the best overall form at the weights, the best course form, and is trained by Aidan O'Brien and ridden by Ryan Moore. They have teamed up for nearly double (32) the number of Royal Ascot winners than any other trainer and jockey combination this century. Surely the others may as well not turn up?



If racing were that simple, then bookmakers would not exist, and if something looks too good to be true, it probably is too good to be true. That is the adage I adhere to, and connections clearly do not see this as a penalty kick for Mother Earth because they now fit first-time cheekpieces.



When O'Brien reaches for the sheepskin, the alarm bells ring in my head, because his record when adding that type of headgear is decidedly moderate. Since the start of 2017, he has saddled just six winners from 65 runners (9%) wearing the aid for the first time.



That 9% strike rate is less than half his total strike-rate (19%) in Britain and Ireland in that time, and his horses improve for their first experience of headgear. His record with horses in cheekpieces second time is much better at 9-for-31 (29%; +£25.37 to £1 stakes).



If that is not enough to deter you, then have a look at the opposition. Yes, Mother Earth is the only horse with any course form, but six of the other seven have yet to run on Ascot's straight course, and how do we know they will not be at least as good, if not better, there?



Take Saffron Beach, for example. She has yet to run here, but her sire New Bay's progeny appear to love Ascot's straight track. The sire is 4-for-10 on the course, and two of the winners came at this mile trip, including one Royal Ascot winner—Perotto  in last year's Britannia.



So when the expert on the TV tells you course form is vital and that Saffron Beach does not have it, sit back and relax safe in the knowledge that racing is far more complex than that.

'We Know She's Been Training Well'

Saffron Beach elevated trainer Jane Chapple-Hyam last season to levels she was not accustomed to, finishing second in the Two Thousand Guineas (G1) at Newmarket and returning to the same course in the autumn to land the handler's first group 1 in the Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (G1).

The 4-year-old returned with another rock-solid performance in the Dubai Turf Sponsored by DP World (G1) when fourth behind dead-heaters Panthalassa  and Lord North , winning her connections £185,185.19, over £10,000 more than is up for grabs in the June 15 Duke of Cambridge Stakes.



However, the prestige of Royal Ascot means it was always going to form part of Saffron Beach's schedule this season, with Chapple-Hyam seeking to add to her sole success at the meeting, when Judgethemoment  won the 2009 Ascot Stakes.



The filly runs in the colors of James Wigan, Ollie Sangster, and Ben Sangster, Chapple-Hyam's step-brother, who said: "We know she's been training well and has a good draw for the race, which is positive along with the ground. She's a very talented filly, and Jane's been pleased with what she's done, so you would hope that she'd be very competitive in this race."



Mother Earth will be crossing swords with Saffron Beach for the fourth time when the pair line up at Royal Ascot. Mother Earth captured the QIPCO One Thousand Guineas (G1), with Saffron Beach second. Saffron Beach reversed that finish in the Sun Chariot Stakes (G1). Mother Earth ran second in the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (G1), in which Saffron Beach ran 11th last summer at Newmarket.



O'Brien has opted for a set of cheekpieces on the filly after she finished down the field in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (G1) last time, and said: "Things just didn't happen for her in the Lockinge. It opened up too early for her and that didn't suit. She's a filly who loves cover and that's why we have decided to put cheekpieces on her. We decided to come here rather than the Queen Anne, and we've been very happy with her since Newbury."