Kentucky Derby Post Positions By the Numbers
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With large fields annually, position in the starting gate can play a big role in the outcome of the Kentucky Derby. (Photos by Eclipse Sportswire)
Kentucky Derby post positions are not to be taken lightly – the wrong post position can make a favorite not-so-favorable or allow handicappers to completely rule out a longshot. Though post positions are randomly assigned, their effects on a horse’s chances in the Run for the Roses seem to be far from arbitrary.
The Kentucky Derby regularly attracts large fields, which means Churchill Downs uses both its regular 14-horse starting gate plus a six-stall auxiliary gate attached to the outside of the main gate. With a 20-horse cavalry charge to the first turn, the far inside and far outside posts can be a major disadvantage for Derby hopefuls.
The shortest way around the track is closest to the rail, so one might naturally think inside posts are advantageous. While this may be true in races with much smaller field size, it is not the case in the Kentucky Derby when a full field of 3-year-olds is trying to find their way to the inside of the track to save ground before the first turn. Horses already on the inside often are subject to bumping and ultimately lose ground or are otherwise impeded.
Conversely, horses breaking from the outside gates may seem like they have it easy, with few horses pushing in from their outside and plenty of room. But their goal is to make it within a few paths of the inside rail before the first turn, and with 19 other competitors this doesn’t often happen, resulting in a wide trip around that first turn and a longer journey to the finish line. While it may not seem like much, the turns of the Kentucky Derby account for 40 percent of the race so if a horse is hung wide it could spell trouble.
A horse’s connections (trainer, jockey and owner) usually hope to avoid these far inside and outside posts, and gates 5 through 15 are generally considered desirable these days. In fact, no horse has won from post 1, 2, or 3 since 1999 when the race first attracted more than the 20 entrants that it can accommodate. In years when the field was larger than 17 horses, only one horse has won from post No. 1: Triple Crown winner War Admiral in 1937. No horse has won from post 1 or 2 since Ferdinand in 1986, and with the exception of Triple Crown near-miss Real Quiet in 1998, no horse has won from post 3 since 1987.
The far outside posts haven’t be as troublesome in recent years. While only four horses won after breaking from the auxiliary gate in 36 races prior to 1999, since that time a whopping seven of 16 Derbies have been won from the auxiliary gate, including the 2011 (Animal Kingdom), 2012 (I’ll Have Another) and 2013 (Orb) Derbies.
ORB WON FROM POST 15
Though some trainers prefer it for the extra space it affords, post 14 just inside the auxiliary gate (or on the far outside in years without an auxiliary gate) has not produced a winner since 1961 when Carry Back wore the roses. It also has a surprisingly low win percentage of just 3.3 percent in the 85 years that the race has used a starting gate. Post position No. 6 has an even lower ratio of winners at 2.4 percent with only one winner (Sea Hero, 1993) since 1957.
Check out the table below for more stats on which gates are the most productive and which gates haven’t seen a Derby winner in more than 30 years, plus find out which gate has never seen one. Take all these stats with a grain of salt, though, as this is horse racing and truly anything can happen once the gates fly open on May 2.
Post Position
Most Recent Winner
Wins/Starts
Win Percent
Wins/Starts Since 1999
Win Percent Since 1999
Last Year’s Result
1
Ferdinand (1986)
8/85
9.4%
0/16
0%
Vicar’s In Trouble, 19th place
2
Affirmed (1978)
7/85
8.2%
0/16
0%
Harry’s Holiday, 17th place
3
Real Quiet (1998)
5/85
5.9%
0/16
0%
Uncle Sigh, 14th place
4
Super Saver (2010)
5/85
5.9%
1/16
6.3%
Danza, 3rd place
5
California Chrome (2014)
9/85
10.6%
3/16
18.8%
California Chrome, 1st place
6
Sea Hero (1993)
2/85
2.4%
0/16
0%
Samraat, 5th place
7
Street Sense (2007)
6/84
7.1%
1/16
6.3%
We Miss Artie, 10th place
8
Mine that Bird (2009)
8/84
9.5%
2/16
12.5%
General a Rod, 11th place
9
Riva Ridge (1972)
4/81
4.9%
0/16
0%
Vinceremos, 17th place
10
Giacomo (2005)
9/78
11.5%
1/16
6.3%
Wildcat Red, 18th place
11
Winning Colors (1988)
2/74
2.7%
0/16
0%
Dance With Fate, 6th place
12
Canonero II (1971)
3/70
4.3%
0/16
0%
Chitu, 9th place
13
Smarty Jones (2004)
4/68
5.9%
1/16
6.3%
Medal Count, 8th place
14
Carry Back (1961)
2/60
3.3%
0/16
0%
Tapiture, 15th place
15
Orb (2013)
4/53
7.5%
2/16
12.5%
Intense Holiday, 12th place
16
Animal Kingdom (2011)
4/44
9.3%
3/16
18.8%
Commanding Curve, 2nd place
17
N/A
0/36
0%
0/15
0%
Candy Boy, 13th place
18
Gato Del Sol (1982)
1/28
3.6%
0/14
0%
Ride On Curlin, 7th place
19
I’ll Have Another (2012)
1/24
4.2%
1/12
8.3%
Wicked Strong, 4th place
20
Big Brown (2008)
1/14
7.1%
1/6
16.7%
N/A