Inside the Trip: Data Moments of 2013
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Description:
Orb (far outside) with Will Take Charge just to his inside (all white silks) were making their moves together in the 2013 Kentucky Derby before Will Take Charge was blocked behind a tiring rival. (Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire)
Barring something stunning the last few days of the year, the 2013 racing season is home and hosed. We thought it appropriate to look back at the top five “data moments” from the year that was. After each situation is identified, we re-publish the appropriate portion of the Trakus blog in its original form, followed by the italicized aftermath showing the eventual impact of the data.
#5 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap Situation: Animal Kingdom’s middle move
Opinions raged wild in the aftermath of Saturday’s Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap, where Point of Entry bested 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Take a gander at the sectional timing data from the race, run at 1 1/8 miles on grass.
Pos.
Horse
1/4
1/2
3/4
1 Mile
Finish
Final 3/8
1st
Point of Entry
25.30
25.42
22.60
22.39
11.29
33.68
2nd
Animal Kingdom
25.71
25.28
22.28
22.45
11.49
33.94
3rd
Unbridled Command
25.51
25.36
22.83
22.31
11.37
33.68
4th
Salto
25.07
25.75
22.42
22.82
12.35
35.17
5th
Where's the Baby
25.85
25.43
23.17
22.57
11.63
34.20
6th
Film Making
25.44
25.54
22.92
23.37
12.64
36.01
After crawling through the first half-mile, jockey Joel Rosario pushed the button on Animal Kingdom, sending him through a third sectional in 22.28 seconds, the fastest split of any horse in the race, and an uncharacteristic early move in such a race. Whether or not that move cost him the race is in some question – undoing it and rerunning the race would yield a different result (at least different sectional times). While “the move” might not have been what anyone planned or requested in pre-race instruction, it happened.
Aftermath: While the prep for Animal Kingdom did not unfold the way Graham Motion would have wanted, it showed that the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner was sharp with that 22.28-second internal quarter. Middle move or not, Joel Rosario settled the colt well when he went to Dubai, and proved that an American-trained runner can win the world’s richest race on their all-weather surface. More than a decade of American domination in the race was temporarily halted from 2010 onward, but Motion, Rosario, and Animal Kingdom got the job done.
ANIMAL KINGDOM WINNING DUBAI WORLD CUP
Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
#4 Awesome Again Stakes Situation: Mucho Macho Man rolls off wide trip
While the Awesome Again Stakes might be named for the Breeders’ Cup Classic winner, there should be little doubt the name was befitting the man who rode the winner in this year’s event – Gary Stevens. Sure, he’s already enshrined as a Hall of Fame jockey, a winner of multiple Kentucky Derbies, Breeders’ Cup races, and Dubai World Cup events. Stevens is awesome, again, and his weekend of rides at Santa Anita exhibited a little bit of everything from his arsenal.
Mucho Macho Man was a much-the-best winner of the Awesome Again, and actually covered the most ground under a patient Stevens. Despite the extra ground covered, Mucho Macho Man still ran the last quarter of the Awesome Again almost two-fifths of a second faster than the next-fastest in the race. Second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, and with a now proven affinity for the California life, Mucho Macho Man is a very legitimate threat in the big race once again. Note the race data below.
Santa Anita - Awesome Again Stakes
Finish
Horse
Feet Traveled
Fin 1/4
1st
Mucho Macho Man
6045
24.58
2nd
Paynter
-20
24.96
3rd
Soi Phet
-19
25.51
4th
Golden Ticket
-47
25.77
5th
Chief Havoc
-32
26.34
6th
Liaison
-8
25.74
7th
Summer Hit
-54
26.55
8th
You Know I Know
-22
25.62
9th
Jeranimo
-57
24.90
10th
Take Control
-41
26.60
In his 2012 Classic duel with Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man covered 25 feet more than Fort Larned, which equates to roughly three lengths of extra ground. He was beaten just a half-length.
Aftermath: Mucho Macho Man may have covered extra ground and still finished the Awesome Again fastest of all, but he did it easy, reaffirming how much he loves Santa Anita, and how in-form he was prior to the Breeders’ Cup Classic. It wasn’t near as easy in the Classic stretch when faced with Will Take Charge and a stubborn Declaration of War, whose performance should go down as one of the best of the year, but it was enough.
MUCHO MACHO MAN (inside) HOLDS ON IN CLASSIC
Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
#3 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Situation: New Year’s Day saves all the ground
Martin Garcia earned his first Breeders’ Cup victory with a ground-saving trip on New Year’s Day in the Juvenile. Wide trips impacting finishing places seemed relatively limited this year, but the performances of Havana, Strong Mandate, and Tap It Rich are exceptions.
Breaking from gate six, second-time starter Tap It Rich had no interest in cornering, and was very far out into the course on the first turn and down the backstretch. Below, take note of the data from the first-five finishers in the Juvenile. The data columns include the feet each horse traveled, their average speed during the race, the official margin, the difference in extra/fewer feet traveled converted to lengths, and then the TAM (Trakus-adjusted margin). The TAM is a raw calculation taking the official margin minus the “feet-to-lengths” conversion.
While it is impossible to suggest if a horse like Tap It Rich was really nearly 3 ½ lengths better than New Year’s Day, we know he averaged a higher speed (using more energy than the winner), and covered a distance of ground well in excess of his margin of defeat. Second-place finisher Havana has similar, but not as gaudy, data, while Strong Mandate was masterful in getting a ground-saving trip around the second turn after breaking from fourteen.
Finish
HORSE
Feet Trav.
Avg MPH
Official Margin
Feet to Lengths
TAM
1st
New Year's Day
5692
37.5
-1.25
-
-
2nd
Havana
25
37.6
1.25
2.9
-1.65
3rd
Strong Mandate
18
37.4
2
2.1
-0.1
4th
Bond Holder
-6
37.2
3.25
-0.7
3.95
5th
Tap It Rich
57
37.6
3.25
6.7
-3.45
Aftermath: Well, this was more a recap of a particular race, and the aftermath is still “to be determined.” Tap It Rich is a confirmed quirky runner after coming back in the CashCall Futurity and running wide again, almost refusing to corner. Havana and Strong Mandate should be more highly regarded than they may be otherwise, running well from outside draws and covering more ground relative to New Year’s Day. Shared Belief’s dominating wins, including his cruising in the CashCall Futurity, could earn him more votes for the top juvenile male, especially in light of New Year’s Day’s garden trip in what is otherwise viewed as the championship spot on the calendar.
NEW YEAR'S DAY WINNING JUVENILE
Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire
#2 Gulfstream Park Handicap Situation: Fort Larned freaks – without a jockey
A collective gasp came from the American racing community when 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Fort Larned stumbled and parted ways with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. at the start of Saturday’s Gulfstream Park Handicap. Making his 2013 debut, the Ian Wilkes trainee gathered himself, free of a 125-pound impost, and took off. It is incredibly fortunate we can take a look at the data from his rider-less performance knowing both horse and rider walked away without significant injury.
Tough to see in the initial video of the race, Fort Larned bursts through the small field and runs off, opening a massive gap to the remainder of the field, and leaving Gulfstream track announcer Larry Collmus incredulous at what he was witnessing.
“That whole area deep in the one mile chute is blocked by trees so it is difficult to make out the gate break,” Collmus recalled. “Racecallers study the horses based on silks, so I had to look to the program [as the red colors of owner Janis Whitham were left at the gate with Hernandez] and see that number three was Fort Larned, and thought to myself ‘OK, wow, this is the story.’ ”
Once Fort Larned realized he was free, he burst through the pack and soared to the front.
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a horse go through a pack that fast,” Collmus marveled, a significant admission considering he has called races for the better part of three decades. “Watching him run was one of the most amazing things to see. You could tell he was absolutely flying, and by the time they turned for home, he was close to a sixteenth of a mile in front of the field.”
So how fast, and how far in front, was Fort Larned? With Trakus, we have an answer.
While Fort Larned was removed from the chicklet view and official timing display once visually identified as running without a jockey, data continues to accrue, and it is displayed below, offering unique insight to the performance. Below, find each point of call beginning seven furlongs from the finish, the cumulative time Fort Larned recorded, the sectional time for each sixteenth-mile segment after the first furlong, and then the margin to the actual leader of the race. As the data shows, Fort Larned was three lengths from leader Fort Loudon after the first furlong before aggressively shooting through the pack to take a two-length lead just a sixteenth later.
POC
Cumulative Time
Sectional Time
Margin to "Leader"
1/8
:13.00
-
-3
3/16
:18.14
5.14
2
1/4
:23.19
5.05
6
5/16
:28.27
5.08
9.25
3/8
:33.49
5.22
12.25
7/16
:38.80
5.31
15.75
1/2
:44.29
5.49
19.25
9/16
:49.27
4.98
22
5/8
:55.89
6.62
24.25
11/16
1:01.92
6.03
25.25
3/4
1:08.04
6.12
24.5
13/16
1:14.27
6.23
22.25
7/8
1:20.59
6.32
19.25
15/16
1:27.08
6.49
14
1 Mile
1:33.89
6.81
8.5
Yes, Fort Larned led Discreet Dancer and the rest of the field by more than 25 lengths around the far turn. He ran a riderless six furlongs in 1:08.04 – the track record at that specific distance is 1:08.12, set by Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Big Drama in 2011. As the far turn ended, Fort Larned clocked 6 ½ furlongs in 1:14.27, 0.17 seconds faster than Forest Danger’s 2005 record at that distance. Slowing in the stretch after his monumental and eventful sprint, the son of E Dubai ran seven furlongs in 1:20.59 – just 0.14 seconds slower than the 2011 record set by Hilda’s Passion. His final “time” for the mile came in 0.18 seconds slower than Commentator’s 2008 mark.
RIDERLESS FORT LARNED ROLLS
Photo courtesy Bob Coglianese Photos/Eleanor Gustafson
After countless hours reviewing data, we cannot recall a time where we saw a horse run a sub five-second sixteenth, as Fort Larned did just before hitting the far turn. Then again, no one had ever seen a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner run riderless and carefree, 25 lengths in front of an accomplished group. Take note of the comparison to Fort Larned’s times and those of the leader at each main point of call.
1/4
1/2
3/4
7/8
Finish
Fort Larned
:23.19
:44.29
1:08.04
1:20.59
1:33.89
Gulfstream Park Hcp
:24.00
:47.26
1:11.68
1:23.37
1:35.17
Difference
0.81
2.97
3.64
2.78
1.28
Lest we forget, Discreet Dancer won the race.
Aftermath: While everything that happened in the Gulfstream Park Handicap technically didn’t matter when it came to the form line for Fort Larned, you cannot un-ring the bell, so to speak. He DID run that fast, and it surely took something out of him. Next time out, he was incredibly dull in the Oaklawn Handicap, beaten 10 ½ lengths as the 1-to-2 favorite. But a win in the Stephen Foster Handicap was followed by a decent performance in the Whitney Handicap, a Homecoming Classic win back at Churchill, and a relatively forgotten, but creditable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Fort Larned might go down in recent American racing history as one of the least respected big-race performers, winning three key two-turn dirt Grade 1 races in his career (Whitney, Breeders’ Cup Classic, Stephen Foster). For what it’s worth, Discreet Dancer was 0-for-3 in subsequent starts, potentially worn down from the grueling pace he chased, and retired with a tendon injury in August.
#1 Kentucky Derby Situation: Will Take Charge redefines bad Derby ‘luck’
Will Take Charge was making the same move as Orb around the far turn of the big race. Just to the inside of the eventual winner, Will Take Charge actually recorded the fastest sixteenth from the five-sixteenths pole to the quarter pole. And then Will Take Charge ran into the one thing any Derby horse making a big move cannot afford to face – a tiring horse, directly in front of him. Below, take note of the two sixteenth-mile segments, first from the five-sixteenths to the quarter pole, and then from the quarter pole to the three-sixteenths. The five-fastest individual performances from that last portion of the far turn are noted on the left, in order, with Will Take Charge’s time being just slightly faster than Orb, with eventual second Golden Soul being third-fastest at that point, then third-placer Revolutionary being fourth-fastest and fifth-home Mylute.
Then look at the first sixteenth-mile segment in the home stretch on the right - Will Take Charge ran up on the heels of Verrazano. How much does that hurt your chances of a better finish? Within a sixteenth of a mile, Will Take Charge went from running the fastest segment to the fourth-slowest.
#
Horse
Rank
5/16 to 1/4
1/4 to 3/16
Rank
17
Will Take Charge
1st
6.37
6.98
16th
16
Orb
2nd
6.40
6.23
1st
4
Golden Soul
3rd
6.43
6.31
4th
3
Revolutionary
4th
6.49
6.26
2nd
6
Mylute
5th
6.52
6.26
2nd
Frac Daddy, who was 17th at the end of the segment listed above as “1/4 to 3/16,” and finished 16th overall, ran faster during that small but crucial portion of the race than Will Take Charge, recording a time of 6.92 seconds. Will Take Charge, who finished seventh, and was previously fifth when running the fastest sixteenth a segment earlier, was hampered to such a degree that even a horse who did little more than fade steadily throughout the running was going faster than Will Take Charge at the point of his obstruction.
Aftermath: Will Take Charge had it in him all along and is almost a certainty to be named America’s champion 3-year-old male. He could even be Horse of the Year. The stats in this blog haunted us all year – it was crystal clear this colt had a superb run in the Derby, but it was never respected until much later in the year. Taking the blinkers off midway through his unusually long season, Will Take Charge was a new horse, and that explosiveness went from being occasional to consistent. If he was a sliver better than Mucho Macho Man, the son of Unbridled’s Song seems a shoe-in for the top Eclipse Award, so it doesn’t seem to make much sense to keep it back from him because he wasn’t that necessary inch better in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He followed his near miss at Santa Anita with a win in the Clark Handicap at Churchill, reaffirming his ability to get over that strip despite the Derby fiasco.
All the best to you and yours this holiday season from all of us at Trakus!
WILL TAKE CHARGE WINNING CLARK HANDICAP
Photo courtesy of Eclipse Sportswire