Inside the Trip: Diving into Kentucky Oaks Data

I'm a Chatterbox cemented her spot in the Kentucky Oaks with a victory in the Fair Grounds Oaks on March 28. (Photo by Eclipse Sportswire)
With the first Saturday in May quickly approaching, it is also important to shine a light on Friday’s headliner, the $1-million Kentucky Oaks. This year brings a competitive renewal of the race, with each region of the country offering up a top filly to tackle the trip.
Condo Commando (#5) breezes in from New York, Birdatthewire (#13) from Florida, Stellar Wind (#12) from California, and I'm a Chatterbox (#8) from Louisiana, not to mention the bundle of other talented fillies trying to bring home the lilies.
With that in mind, let’s delve into the most compelling data, focusing on sectional times and ground loss, that Trakus has collected for this year’s Kentucky Oaks field.
New York Contenders
One filly has dominated New York for her 2- and 3-year-old seasons, and that is Condo Commando. From her five wins, her average margin of victory is 8.8 lengths. Her only defeat came last year in the oddly run Frizette Stakes on a sealed, sloppy track at Belmont Park, where she did not make the lead and faded to fourth.
This year, after a demolition of the field in the Busher Stakes, the Rudy Rodriguez trainee ran in the 1 1/8-mile, Grade 2 Gazelle Stakes. Challenged early for the lead by Donegal Racing’s Puca (#14), she raced two wide on the first turn before taking over. Geared down late, she posted a 2 ½-length victory. Puca was in a full drive for second, but Condo Commando’s final quarter-mile of 25.54 seconds was still the quickest in the race, with Puca coming home in 25.74. Additionally, Condo Commando covered 18 feet more than Puca, the equivalent of two lengths.
Also in the field was Money'soncharlotte (#9), who managed to rally for third after a troubled trip that included ducking in and banging the rail in the stretch. While her final quarter-mile of 25.71 seconds was still slower than Condo Commando’s, her final furlong of 12.90 seconds was quicker than both Condo Commando and Puca’s shared time of 13.18 seconds.

California Contenders
After an impressive 8 ¾-length romp in a maiden special weight race at Laurel Park in her second career start, Hronis Racing purchased Stellar Wind and transferred her to John Sadler's barn in California, where she has taken control of the West Coast’s 3-year-old filly division.

Stellar Wind’s win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks was easy, cantering home to a 5 ¼-length victory. Trailing the field for the first part of the race, she swept up next to pacesetter Luminance, who drifted wide on the far turn, forcing Stellar Wind into the four path, before drawing away. She covered the widest trip of all of her competitors, and her final quarter-mile of 25.91 seconds was almost a full second quicker than next-fastest Luminance, who got the job done in 26.89 seconds.
Prior to that, Stellar Wind dominated in the Grade 3 Santa Ysabel Stakes. Two wide into the first turn, she had one foe beaten but ranged up four wide and drew clear for a three-length score. She ran 27 feet, about 3.5 lengths, more than runner-up Light the City. Her closing furlong of 12.14 seconds was also much faster than Light the City’s time of 12.58.
Florida Contenders
Despite a neck loss in the Grade 2 Davona Dale Stakes, Birdatthewire has remained in control of the filly division in Florida. Her run in the Gulfstream Park Oaks was monstrous, with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. restraining her throughout the early stages. Heavy battling with the jockey aside, the big, bay filly swung three-wide on the far turn and put away Eskenformoney (#4), who had an ideal trip otherwise.
In all three of her starts at Gulfstream, Birdatthewire has posted the quickest final quarter-mile. Her Gulfstream Park Oaks final quarter time of 26.72 seconds was significantly faster than the shared next-quickest time of 27.30 posted by Eskenformoney in second and Danessa Deluxe in third.

In the Davona Dale, Birdatthewire was caught on the outside of a three-horse battle to the finish, losing by a neck to pacemaker Ekati’s Phaeton. She still closed with the fastest final quarter of 26.66 seconds, while Eskenformoney in third did it in 26.92 seconds and the winner in 27.01 seconds. Puca was also in that field and ran on the rail for fourth, though her final quarter of 27.18 seconds was slower than the top three.

Birdatthewire’s victory in the Grade 2 Forward Gal Stakes in January mirrored her two subsequent races, as she dropped back early and closed with that devastating kick for a 3 ¼-length victory. Her final quarter of 26.05 seconds again eclipsed her opponents. Second-place finisher Lassofthemohicans closed in 26.78 seconds.
And, in Birdatthewire’s 2-year-old season, the daughter of Summer Bird broke her maiden at Churchill Downs, coming from 20 lengths behind the leader to win by 1 ½ lengths. She is the only filly in the field with a win on the track and, with Dale Romans as her trainer, Churchill Downs is her home base, which should give her a slight advantage.
Louisiana Contenders
Dominating the Louisiana circuit is the Larry Jones trainee I’m a Chatterbox, who ran away to an easy victory in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks in her final Kentucky Oaks prep. She has shown the ability to come from off the pace, too, as her victory in the Grade 3 Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February confirms. The Munnings filly had just one horse beaten before weaving through horses on the far turn to rally for an easy win.

The Rachel Alexandra runner-up, Lovely Maria, came back to win the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland Race Course in her next start, making a mockery of the field.
In the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds in January, I’m a Chatterbox went straight to the lead and never was seriously threatened, winning by eight lengths. Her versatility is promising as she will be able to adjust to the pace.
Dallas Stewart sends out Forever Unbridled (#1), who was third in both the Fair Grounds Oaks and Rachel Alexandra Stakes following moderately wide trips in which she tracked the pace but could not gain on the winner.
Steve Asmussen trainee Shook Up (#2), who was second to I’m a Chatterbox in the Fair Grounds Oaks, is another competitor to emerge from a strictly Louisiana-based campaign 3-year-old campaign. The gray or roan Tapit filly likes to race in mid-pack and, despite having the jump on I’m a Chatterbox, could not defeat her. Her previous effort in the Rachel Alexandra was disappointing as she sat on the inside and failed to produce an effective drive, finishing fifth.
Keeneland Prep
While I’m a Chatterbox was busy earning her right to the Oaks at Fair Grounds, stablemate Lovely Maria (#7) shipped to Keeneland to contest the Ashland Stakes. She tracked outside the leader, Angela Renee (#6), in the three path before charging away to a 3 ¼-length victory. Her final quarter of 24.67 towered over Angela Renee’s second-quickest time of 25.30 seconds, despite Lovely Maria having the widest trip.

Southwest Contenders
The Southwest has yielded a few of its own Oaks contenders. At Oaklawn Park, Tom Proctor trainee Include Betty (#3) was a very impressive winner of the Fantasy Stakes. She raced in last early and rallied explosively from eight wide on the turn, winning by a neck over the late-charging Oceanwave.  Also in the field was Sarah Sis (#11), who raced in mid-pack before experiencing traffic troubles. When she finally got clear in the stretch, she re-rallied with a mild kick for fifth.

Prior to her loss in the Fantasy Stakes, Sarah Sis was the winner of the Honeybee Stakes in March. A Sharp Humor filly, Sarah Sis roped in the ambitious early pacesetter after tracking from second and pulled away, while Oceanwave (#10) closed quickly late, galloping out in front of the winner.
Synopsis
Pace is going to be a heavy factor in this year’s edition of the Kentucky Oaks. The only true speed of the race is Condo Commando, who has been relatively untested despite thrashing both Angela Renee and Puca in the past. If a horse like Sarah Sis or Eskenformoney goes forward to apply pressure, she could very well have her hands full. If not, there is a chance that she runs away with it. She’s the only filly to post two victories at a mile and an eighth, so the distance seems to be no problem for Condo Commando.
Lovely Maria will be tracking the leading group, and after her explosive win in the Ashland Stakes, she appears to be a true force to be reckoned with. Her loss to I’m a Chatterbox came after a very wide trip, and her jockey lost the whip at the sixteenth pole.
Mid-pack most likely will consist of Shook Up, Angela Renee, and Forever Unbridled. Shook Up has not been able to hold a candle to Lovely Maria or I’m a Chatterbox in past races. Angela Renee has lacked the winning edge since her last score in the Chandelier Stakes back in September. Forever Unbridled will be attempting to match her dam, Lemons Forever, who took the Kentucky Oaks at a big price for trainer Dallas Stewart back in 2006.
There are plenty of closers in the field this year. Stellar Wind, Birdatthewire, Oceanwave and Include Betty have all done their best running late. They are either going to be the beneficiaries of a hot pace if someone sends against Condo Commando, or they will be left with a lot of work to do as the New York filly escapes unchallenged with soft fractions. Puca has run from the back of the pack, tracked the pace, and even was sent to the lead briefly in the Gazelle, so she has versatility going for her. While she seems to be maturing, this collective field is very deep and might be too much for her.
I’m a Chatterbox is the real wild card. She has been incredibly successful despite no particular set running style, with wins from the back of the pack, on the lead, and tracking. Her pedigree screams sprinter as her sire and dam’s sire both were accomplished sprinters, but so far she has not had distance problems. What she can really use is her tactical speed, which will be key in this race.
The field being as competitive as it is this year, there are a few fillies that are top contenders for likeliest winner. Condo Commando landed a good draw in gate five, although she might have to compete with Eskenformoney in gate four for the lead. Lovely Maria in gate seven and I’m a Chatterbox in gate eight have ideal draws as the speed lies to their inside and closers Oceanwave, Stellar Win, and Birdatthewire are to their outside in gates 10, 12 and 13, respectively. The connections of the closers in the outside posts might be slightly concerned that they will have to cover additional ground, as all three are expected to drop back off the pace. Include Betty is another recipient of a good draw in gate three as she will be able to save ground before unleashing her closing kick on the far turn.
Let’s hope for all the best to the equine and human connections all the best for the 141st Kentucky Oaks.
$1-million Kentucky OaksFriday, May 1, Churchill Downs, 5:49 p.m. ET1 1/8 miles, dirt, 3-year-old fillies

Post Position

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Owner

Morning Line

1

Forever Unbridled

Mike Smith

Dallas Stewart

Charles Fipke

15-1

2

Shook Up

Robby Albarado

Steve Asmussen

Regis Racing

30-1

3

Include Betty

Rosemary Homeister, Jr.

Tom Proctor

Brereton C. Jones and Timothy C. Thornton

20-1

4

Eskenformoney

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

StarLadies Racing

20-1

5

Condo Commando

Joel Rosario

Rudy Rodriguez

Michael Dubb, Bethlehem Stables and The Elkstone Group

4-1

6

Angela Renee

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

Siena Farm

15-1

7

Lovely Maria

Kerwin Clark

Larry Jones

Brereton C. Jones

5-1

8

I'm a Chatterbox

Florent Geroux

Larry Jones

Grayson Farm

4-1

9

Money'soncharlotte

Paco Lopez

Kelly Breen

George and Lori Hall

50-1

10

Oceanwave

Rafael Bejarano

Wayne Catalano

Gary and Mary West

30-1

11

Sarah Sis

Gary tevens

Ingrid Mason

Joe Ragsdale

30-1

12

Stellar Wind

Victor Espinoza

John Sadler

Hronis Racing

7-2

13

Birdatthewire

Irad Ortiz Jr.

Dale Romans

Forum Racing IV

6-1

14

Puca

Junior Alvarado

Bill Mott

Donegal Racing

15-1

15-AE

Peace and War

Julien Leparoux

Olly Stevens

Qatar Racing

50-1

AE - denotes also-eligible, which means another entrant would need to be scratched in order for Peace and War to draw into the race.