Perry Martin: Observations of a Breeder Pt. 2

In Part 1 I made some observations about luck. Don't get me wrong, I believe in luck, I just don't think it should be the basis of anyone's breeding business plan.

 

In matters of true random chance, I've never been very lucky. When the Mega Millions gets over $100 million, I'll buy a ticket, but so far I've never cashed one. I understand the chances and am not very disappointed when I don't win.

 

Breeding horses involves chance. Breeding horses is very similar to playing blackjack (21) in a casino. The house has an edge, and you will win a few but usually the house will win more. In order to increase your money-winning percentage, you need either to be truly lucky or to understand the statistics to turn the edge to your favor. In blackjack this is done by "counting cards" to determine when the deck is "heavy" (in face cards and aces) and betting more when there is a higher probability of getting a good hand. You won't always win, but you will be more likely to when it matters most (when you bet heavy). Over time that edge should manifest itself as an over-all positive return.

 

As a breeder, how then do we stack the deck heavy? Female family inbreeding (FFI) offers a statistically significant improvement over other techniques for breeding champions.

 

Just as the heavy deck in blackjack, FFI stacks the mare's pedigree with desirable characteristics from a "foundation" mare. Female Family Inbreeding (FFI) is the duplication of a female ancestor, between both the sire and dam usually within five generations (5x5 or closer). Here in the States this is known as the Rasmussen Factor, named after Leon Rasmussen who wrote about this effect in the "Bloodlines" column for Daily Racing Form. Later in his career Rasmussen teamed with Rommy Faversham to co-author the book: Inbreeding to Superior Females; Using the Rasmussen Factor to Produce Better Racehorses. Faversham is the gentleman I wrote about at the end of Part 1. He went on to author Great Breeders and Their Methods: Samuel Riddle, Walter Jeffords, and the Dynasty of Man o' War and a chapter in the aforementioned, Racehorse Breeding Theories. Any or all of these books would be a great reference for anyone wanting to learn more about this subject. Faversham lays out the statistical analysis and also identifies the various forms of FFI.

 

Unfortunately, I did not rely on any of these references, although I am now continuing my self-education. No, I recognized the success of this breeding pattern through the study of the racing stables of Edward George Villiers Stanley, the 17th Earl of Derby. Equibase has pedigree records of these horses although other sources are needed for the racing records (unraced in North America). Lord Stanley was one of the most successful owner/breeders in England winning the Epsom Derby in 1924, 1933, and 1942; the Epsom Oaks in 1928 and 1945; the St. Leger Stakes in 1910, 1919, 1923, 1928, 1933, and 1943; the One Thousand Guineas in 1916, 1918, 1923, 1930, 1936, 1943, and 1945; and the Two Thousand Guineas in 1926 and 1944. Over and above his racing success was his breeding success mainly through his homebred horse Phalaris. Phalaris was a champion sprinter and the stallion responsible for establishing the most dominant sire line in Europe, and later, in the United States through his four sons Fairway, Pharamond, Pharos, and Sickle. I found Lord Stanley's body of racehorse breeding work fascinating. All of these stallions can be found up and down the back-end of California Chrome's pedigree.

 

California Chrome's dam Love the Chase, 2014 California Broodmare of the Year, is inbred 3x3 to Numbered Account. Numbered Account was the 1971 2-year-old champion filly. She also has FFI influence being 4x5 to La Troienne and 5x5 to Selene.

 

I cannot take credit for going out and finding Love the Chase. She just happened to be purchased by Greg Gilchrist for Blinkers On Racing, the racing syndicate my wife, Denise, and I were associated with starting out as new owners. While we were racing Love the Chase, Denise and I were considering getting into breeding racehorses specifically because of the California-bred racing incentives. Not rushing into a new business, I took the time to study how successful breeders developed their racing and breeding stock. When we purchased 5% ownership in Love the Chase, I was not yet aware of the possibilities of her pedigree. We had a good experience our first year in the partnership and simply purchased 5% of all of the Blinkers On offerings for that second year. As the year wore on and I progressed into my breeding research, I began to get very interested in our worst-performing racehorse. We also owned part of stakes-winning fillies and mares, but I just didn't see the same breeding potential in them (knowing this goes against modern theory). I had become aware of the benefits of FFI and had researched Numbered Account and her lineage back to La Troienne. La Troienne had very good breeding but was an undersized filly and in seven starts racing in France and England had one second, one third, five unplaced finishes and the equivalent of $146 won. Because of her small size and poor performance on the track, she was not considered a very good breeding prospect and was sold (Sound Familiar?). La Troienne now is considered as one of the most influential mares to be imported into the U.S. in the 20th century. I recommend you look up her offspring.

 

Love the Chase has produced four foals (delivering a full brother to California Chrome April 12), all by Lucky Pulpit  . We have the financial ability to breed to any stallion; however, it's my belief there is no better match than Lucky Pulpit (more on that in Part 3). All three foals are chestnut. I'm told that when you breed a chestnut to a chestnut, there is 100% chance that the foal will be a chestnut. So far, so good. With other characteristics the mix is not that simple.

 

Intelligence is an important characteristic that plays heavily into the development of a racehorse. We have been given three very intelligent horses. Chrome always showed us he was quite smart, and he took to his training lessons well. I often tell the story of his 2013 sister who I believe to be the smartest of the three. She was in the pasture near her mom but standing at the fence staring for 20 minutes at the fence pole. I could not see what was so interesting until I went closer and saw that she was watching a line of ants going up and down the fence pole. This middle sibling is the smallest but also the most stubborn. Being small does not always translate to slow. Smaller horses carry less weight around the track, and if her stubbornness translates to tenaciousness on the track, then we're in for a treat.

 

Our 2-year-old (named Hope's Love) is in training now and is progressing steadily. If she does not perform on the track, she will not be culled from our stock as we have learned the lesson of both La Troienne and Love the Chase. I'll end with a quick discussion of our 2014 filly. I've already told you she is smart; she is curious, and has a wonderful disposition, but what is most exciting is her perfect conformation and large size. Our yearling is about as large as our 2-year-old. In addition, she is athletic, and there is no awkwardness at all. 

 

What thought processes went into the stallion selection for breeding to Love the Chase? In Part 3 I'll discuss modern breeding theories and some of the tweaks I've applied.