American Pharoah winning the Rebel Stakes on March 14 at Oaklawn Park. (Photo by Coady Photography)
The field is set for the 141st Kentucky Derby and there certainly will be no shortage of talent on display at Churchill Downs on Saturday.
Worthy contenders such as Carpe Diem, Materiality, and Dortmund all have fans in their respective corners, while longshot players will be quick to point out positives in potential upsetters such as Danzig Moon, Mubtaahij, and Far Right. However, in my opinion, there is one horse that stands above all others in the 2015 Kentucky Derby: American Pharoah.
American Pharoah was the best 2-year-old Thoroughbred in the country in 2014, and he picked up right where he left off in 2015 with two dominant victories in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes and Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. American Pharoah’s Hall of Fame trainer, Bob Baffert, has already won the Kentucky Derby on three occasions, while American Pharoah’s jockey, Victor Espinoza, has won the Kentucky Derby twice (including last year with California Chrome). The fact that American Pharoah has been training very well in his recent morning workouts gives us another boost in confidence.
American Pharoah is the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby and is expected to be the betting favorite come post time for the run for the roses at 6:34 p.m. ET on Saturday.
There is nothing wrong with betting American Pharoah to win in the Kentucky Derby. A $2 win wager at his 5-2 morning-line odds would return $7. However, if we want to make a little more money betting on American Pharoah, it is be necessary to pick a couple horses to “team up” with him in exactas and trifectas. Below are some of the other horses I will look to bet along with American Pharoah in the Kentucky Derby:
#2 Carpe Diem: He has competed in five races in his career, and has won four of them, so this guy obviously knows how to win. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez will have his work cut out for him from this No. 2 post position, but if any man is right for the job, it would be Velazquez. With a clean trip (easier said than done), Carpe Diem has the talent to win the Kentucky Derby.
#12 International Star: Nothing wrong with International Star’s résumé, which includes three consecutive victories, including a win in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. I like the fact that he will be coming from off the pace, and he has shown some serious agility in some of his recent wins. That agility could be crucial when making a potential move to beat a big field in the Kentucky Derby. His odds should definitely be generous, probably in the 15-1 to 20-1 range.
INTERNATIONAL STAR WINNING RISEN STAR STAKES
Photo by Eclipse Sportswire
#15 Frosted: This horse has always hinted at being a star and may have finally vaulted to that level with his recent win in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 4. Jockey Joel Rosario, who won the 2013 Kentucky Derby on Orb, rode Frosted for the first time in the Wood, so the team will have a chance to continue their undefeated record in the Kentucky Derby.
FROSTED WINNING WOOD MEMORIAL
Photo by NYRA/Dave Alcosser
#16 War Story: Similar to both International Star and Frosted, I like that War Story most likely will be doing his best running during the final portion of the Kentucky Derby. He has finished behind International Star in a couple of his most recent races, but also appears to have had more difficult trips during the running of those races. With the right trip, War Story could be a longshot to keep your eye on in the homestretch.
Betting Strategy A
$3 exacta: 18 with 2,12,15,16 ($12)
$2 exacta: 2,12,15,16 with 18 ($8)
Betting Strategy B
$0.50 trifecta: 18 with 2,12,15,16 with 2,12,15,16 ($6)
$0.50 trifecta: 2,12,15,16 with 18 with 2,12,15,16 ($6)
$0.50 trifecta: 2,12,15,16 with 2,12,15,16 with 18 ($6)
$2-million Kentucky DerbySaturday, May 2, Churchill Downs, 6:34 p.m. ET1 ¼ miles, dirt, 3-year-olds TV: NBC 4-7:30 p.m. ET
No.
Horse
Jockey
Trainer
Owner
Odds
1
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Elvis Trujillo
Jim Cassidy
DP Racing
24-1
2
Carpe Diem
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
WinStar Farm and Stonestreet Stable
7-1
3
Materiality
Javier Castellano
Todd Pletcher
Alto Racing
14-1
4
Tencendur
Manny Franco
George Weaver
Phillip S. Birsh
56-1
5
Danzig Moon
Julien Leparoux
Mark Casse
John Oxley
20-1
6
Mubtaahij
Christophe Soumillon
Mike de Kock
Sheikh Mohammed bin Khalifa al Maktoum
12-1
7
El Kabeir
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
8
Dortmund
Martin Garcia
Bob Baffert
Kaleem Shah
4-1
9
Bolo
Rafael Bejarano
Carla Gaines
Golden Pegasus Racing and Earle Mack
33-1
10
Firing Line
Gary Stevens
Simon Callaghan
Arnold Zetcher
8-1
11
Stanford
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
12
International Star
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
SCRATCHED
N/A
13
Itsaknockout
Luis Saez
Todd Pletcher
Starlight Racing
29-1
14
Keen Ice
Kent Desormeaux
Dale Romans
Donegal Racing
37-1
15
Frosted
Joel Rosario
Kiaran McLaughlin
Godolphin Racing
9-1
16
War Story
Joe Talamo
Tom Amoss
Loooch Racing Stables Glenn K. Ellis and Christopher T. Dunn
41-1
17
Mr. Z
Ramon Vazquez
D. Wayne Lukas
Zayat Stables
30-1
18
American Pharoah
Victor Espinoza
Bob Baffert
Zayat Stables
3-1
19
Upstart
Jose Ortiz
Rick Violette
Ralph Evans and WinStar Farm
21-1
20
Far Right
Mike Smith
Ron Moquett
Robert LaPenta and Harry Rosenblum
37-1
21
Frammento
Corey Nakatani
Nick Zito
Mossarosa
94-1